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Disney (DIS): Will Rogue One Match The Force Awakens?

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Christmas bells have already started ringing for Star Wars fans as The Walt Disney Company’s (DIS - Free Report) “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” will hit theatres on Dec 16. Last year this time, the Star Wars franchise took the box office by storm with its return after a decade with  “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”. Star Wars movies were always blockbusters’ earlier but whether Rogue One can carry the Star Wars legacy forward is a big question.

Ever since Disney acquired Lucasfilm in 2012 for $4 billion, “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” is the first spinoff produced by the company. Rogue One is a story of a band of rebels trying to steal plans of abolishing the planet-pulverizing Death Star.

Can Rogue One Re-create the Magic?

Star Wars: The Force Awakens shattered box office records with a massive collection of $529 million worldwide in the opening weekend. At the North America box office, Disney earned $248 million in the opening weekend, marking the biggest opening in Hollywood’s history and smashing the $208.8 million record set by Jurassic World.

We don’t believe Rogue One can surpass the record of The Force Awakens. Per media report, Rogue One is expected to generate over $130 million in the opening weekend. Yet, according to AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC - Free Report) , presales of tickets for Rogue One are better than any of the releases in 2016. Disney’s “Captain America: Civil War” which garnered $179 million is the highest-grossed opening weekend movie of 2016.

Disney has usually always tasted success at the box office. Luck seems to be on its side as it has struck gold with almost every movie released over the last couple of years. In 2015, it came up with hits like Avengers: Age of Ultron, Marvel's Ant-Man, Inside Out, Cinderella and Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

The year 2016 has also been magnificent for the company’s movie business. The notable movie releases were Captain America: Civil War, Finding Dory and Zootopia, which surpassed $1 billion at the box office. Also, Jungle Book saw excellent business with a worldwide collection of $966 million.

Will the Stock Get a Push?

The success of the movie business is crucial for Disney as the loss of subscribers at ESPN has been a major concern for investors.  Disney’s primary cash cow, ESPN, has been under immense pressure as the Pay-TV landscape continues to change owing to migration of subscribers to online TV.

Despite the fabulous run of its movies, the company’s shares have declined 0.6% so far this year, against the Zacks categorized Media Conglomerates industry’s gain of 9.1%. On the contrary, shares of Comcast Corporation (CMCSA - Free Report) and Time Warner Inc. have surged 23.8% and 47.4%, respectively, year to date.

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