It has been about a month since the last earnings report for MPLX LP (MPLX Quick QuoteMPLX - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is MPLX LP due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

MPLX Q4 Earnings Beat on Higher Throughput

MPLX reported fourth-quarter 2024 earnings of $1.07 per unit, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.04. The bottom line, however, declined from the year-ago quarter’s level of $1.10.

Total quarterly revenues of $3.06 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.08 billion. The top line, however, increased from the prior-year level of $2.97 billion.

Better-than-expected quarterly earnings were primarily driven by higher throughputs and increased contributions from the partnership’s newly acquired assets in the Utica and Permian Basins. The positives were partially offset by increased total costs and expenses.

Segmental Highlights

MPLX LP has redefined its reporting segments to Crude Oil and Products Logistics, previously known as Logistics and Storage, and Natural Gas and NGL Services, formerly known as Gathering and Processing.

MPLX’s adjusted EBITDA from the Crude Oil and Products Logistics segment increased to $1.12 billion from $1.06 billion a year ago. The growth was driven by increased rates and higher throughputs. Total pipeline throughputs in the quarter were 5.9 million barrels per day, up 1% from the prior-year level.

Adjusted EBITDA from the Natural Gas and NGL Services segment amounted to $639 million, up from $560 million a year ago. The increase was primarily driven by higher volumes, including contributions from the newly acquired assets in the Utica and Permian Basins and growth from equity affiliates.

Gathering throughput volumes averaged 6.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), implying an 8% increase from the year-ago level. Natural gas processed volumes totaled 9.9 Bcf/d, indicating a 6% increase from the year-ago level.

Costs and Expenses

Total costs and expenses were $1.72 billion, up from the year-ago reported figure of $1.59 billion. The increase was primarily due to higher operating expenses (including purchased product costs). Increased depreciation and amortization expenses also contributed to the rise.

Cash Flow

Distributable cash flow in the quarter totaled $1.48 billion, providing 1.5X distribution coverage. The figure increased from $1.38 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted free cash flow increased to $1,324 million from $964 million in the corresponding period of 2023.

Balance Sheet

As of Dec. 31, 2024, the partnership’s cash and cash equivalents were $1.52 billion, and its total debt amounted to $20.95 billion.

Outlook

MPLX expects capital spending for 2025 to be approximately $2 billion. Of this, $1.45 billion has been allocated for Natural Gas and NGL Services growth capital, $250 million for Crude Oil and Products Logistics growth capital, and $300 million for maintenance capital.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, MPLX LP has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, MPLX LP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.