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Nasdaq Lags Industry, Trades at a Discount: Time to Buy the Dip?

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Nasdaq (NDAQ - Free Report) shares are trading at a discount to the Zacks Securities and Exchanges industry. Its price-to-earnings of 23.4X is higher than the industry average of 24.12X.

With a capitalization of $43.8 billion, Nasdaq has been successful in maximizing opportunities as a technology and analytics provider and growing core marketplace business. Its focus on market technology and information services helps businesses explore vast opportunities that are in line with its developmental strategies.

Zacks Investment Research
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Shares of other players like Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE - Free Report) , MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX - Free Report) and CME Group (CME - Free Report) are also trading at a multiple higher than the industry.

Nasdaq stock has lost 1.5% year to date, underperforming the industry and the sector but outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s return in the same time frame.

NDAQ vs Industry, Sector & S&P 500 YTD

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

NDAQ shares are trading below the 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. 

Based on short-term price targets offered by 18 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $90.56 per share. The average indicates a potential 18.9% upside from the last closing price.

Optimistic Growth Projections for NDAQ

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is pegged at $3.18 per share, indicating an 12.8% year-over-year increase on 8.3% higher revenues of $5 billion. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.61 per share, indicating a 13.6% year-over-year increase on 7.8% higher revenues of $5.4 billion.  The expected long-term earnings growth rate is 12.3%, better than the industry’s 9%.

NDAQ’s Favorable Return on Capital

Return on equity, which reflects the company’s efficiency in utilizing shareholders' funds, was 14.8% in the trailing 12 months, better than the industry’s average of 13.5%. 

Return on invested capital (ROIC) has remained around 10% over the past few years. The company has raised its capital investment significantly, reflecting its efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 6.5%, higher than the industry average of 5%.

NDAQ’s Growth Path

Nasdaq’s focus to generate more revenues from high-growth Market Technology and Investment Intelligence segments, forward R&D spending on higher-growth products, expansion of its Anti-Financial Crime clientele and innovations bodes well for growth. 

The company expects strong growth from its index and analytics businesses and moderate growth in its exchange data products across U.S. and Nordic equities. Nasdaq estimates Capital Access Platforms revenue growth of 5-8%, Financial Technology Revenue growth of 10-14% and total Solutions revenue growth of 8-11% over the medium term. The company estimates Solutions Business' medium-term organic revenue growth to be in the range of 8-11%.

Nasdaq’s strategic buyouts have gained it direct access to the Canadian equities market, expanded its technology offering and improved its market surveillance techniques. 

Nasdaq noted that the anti-fin crime space has a total addressable market of $12.5 billion. Verafin consolidated NDAQ’s established reg tech leadership to create a global SaaS leader. Nasdaq aims to achieve 40-50% SaaS revenues as a percentage of total revenues by 2025.

Nasdaq has been incurring higher expenses, which, in turn, are inducing net margin contraction over time.  The company expects non-GAAP operating expense growth to be in the band of 5- 8% over the medium term.

Due to a change in the corporate structure, NDAQ is estimated to incur $115-$145 million in pretax charges, of which about 40% will be non-cash charges. Nonetheless, Nasdaq estimates benefits in the form of combined annual run rate operating efficiencies and revenue synergies of at least $30 million by 2025.

Nasdaq’s debt has been increasing over the last few years, with the debt-to-equity ratio comparing unfavorably with the industry average. Its lower times interest earned also raises concerns.

How Should You Play the Stock Now?

Nasdaq is a leading provider of trading, clearing, marketplace technology, regulatory, securities listing, information and public and private company services.  Impressive organic growth, an increasing on-trading revenue base and strategic buyouts to capitalize on market opportunities poise it well for growth. Nasdaq is investing in proprietary data, migrating markets and SaaS solutions to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the cryptocurrency markets.

NDAQ has steadily increased its dividend each year and will continue to do so to achieve a dividend payout ratio of 35-38% by 2027. Notably, its free cash flow conversion has remained more than 100% over the previous few quarters, reflecting its solid earnings.

It seems a prudent time to add this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock to your portfolio. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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