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Small Business Confidence Ticks in Lower

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Pre-market futures are higher this morning, though off the early-morning highs in triple digits on the Dow and the Nasdaq. At this hour, the Dow is up just 17 points, the Nasdaq +29 and the S&P 500 is +5 points. At this rate, it will be a while before we make up yesterday’s losses of -890 points, -727 points and -155 points, respectively.

Small-Business Confidence Slides in February

Also early this morning came the results from the February NFIB Small Business Confidence survey. This almost reached estimates, coming up 30 basis points (bps) short, to 100.7 for the month. This is down from the previous month’s unrevised 102.8 and December’s near-term high 105.1.

That said, this marks the fourth-straight month above the 51-year average level of 98, though we are trending in the wrong direction. It remains to be seen whether tariff talk in recent weeks will have a pronounced effect on small businesses, as these companies are less likely to engage in trade outside our borders.

The Uncertainty Index also came out from the NFIB this morning, which rose to its second-highest level ever at 104, from 100 the last time around. Survey participants cited the usual suspects — weak labor quality and inflation — in their biggest reasons for the softer outlook.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

The final monthly print on jobs comes out after today’s open, albeit a month in arrears: January’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. This is expected to remain steady with the previous month, of 7.6 million job openings in the U.S. labor market of two months ago, and lower than the trailing 12-month average of 8 million job openings.

The Job Quits levels have remained steady at +2%, which is a unique gauge on opinions of wage earners. Back during the Great Reopening three years ago, we were seeing quits levels 100 bps higher — clearly people were more comfortable leaving their jobs back then for a higher wage, etc. elsewhere — but we’ve entered a period of tighter opportunities for the American labor force.

Q4 Earnings Roundup: Dick’s Beats, Lowers

There’s simply no good way to write an effective, concise headline for Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS - Free Report) that cannot be read as a double entendre, so I’ve given up trying. ;) Typically, Dick’s outperformed expectations on both top and bottom lines — earnings of $3.62 per share versus $3.49 anticipated or $3.89 billion in revenues, +3.5% above estimates —but was the latest retailer to sound the warning bell for full-year 2025.

Tariffs and waning consumer confidence were cited as reasons for lowering full-year earnings guidance of $13.80-14.40 per share. Shares are down -1.9% in today’s early session, adding to the red ink of -7.8% year to date for the specialty retail company that has only posted one earnings miss in the past four years.


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