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Campbell's Struggles to Regain Momentum With Weaker Snack Sales

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The Campbell's Company (CPB - Free Report) has faced considerable challenges, with its shares dropping 7.1%, underperforming the industry’s decline of 1.9% over the past three months. The company has been grappling with inflationary pressures on input costs and a highly competitive snack market. Despite proactive efforts, it is seeing weaker-than-expected growth, especially in its Snacks division, where sales have been sluggish. As the broader consumer environment remains volatile, CPB is struggling to regain its growth momentum.

Weakness in Snacks Division Weighs on CPB

Campbell’s has been experiencing weaker-than-expected performance in the Snacks business amid shifting consumer trends and competitive dynamics within the market. The trend continued in second-quarter fiscal 2025, wherein net sales in the division totaled $1,006 million, down 6% year over year. Organic sales in the segment declined 3%, caused by lower sales in third-party partner and contract brands, Goldfish crackers and Snyder’s of Hanover pretzels. The decline was attributed to a 2% drop in volume/mix and a 1% decrease in net price realization.

Total Snacks consumption for the company’s leadership brands declined by almost 1% in the fiscal second quarter. Operating earnings for the Snacks division fell 29%. In its last earnings call, management emphasized that while the company expects to make continued sequential progress on Snacks margins, it does not anticipate reaching the previously expected margin levels.

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Campbell’s Cost Woes Persist

Campbell's has been facing ongoing cost inflation, which impacted its fiscal second-quarter performance. The company’s adjusted gross profit margin contracted 100 basis points (bps) to 30.4%, impacted by cost inflation, supply-chain costs, unfavorable net price realization and the acquisition. Looking ahead, management expects inflation to remain in the low-single-digit range for fiscal 2025. To mitigate these challenges, Campbell's has implemented proactive cost-saving measures. However, its ability to effectively manage inflation while aligning with its strategic goals will be crucial for its growth.

Road Ahead Looks Challenging for CPB

Given the underperformance so far in fiscal 2025 and the slower-than-anticipated recovery in some snacking categories, management recently pointed at a muted second-half expectation and an update to full-year guidance. The company now forecasts fiscal 2025 net sales growth of 6-8%, down from its previous 9-11% estimation. Organic net sales are expected to range from a 2% decline to flat compared with the prior outlook of flat to 2% growth. The revised organic net sales outlook reflects a more subdued volume/mix contribution in the second half, following a weaker-than-expected recovery in snacking categories during the fiscal second quarter. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is now expected to decline 4% to 1%, ranging from $2.95 to $3.05, compared with the previous forecast of $3.12-$3.22 and the $3.08 reported in fiscal 2024.

Final Words on CPB Stock

Campbell's continues to face significant challenges, particularly in its Snacks division and due to ongoing cost inflation. While the company is taking proactive measures to manage these pressures, the revised outlook for fiscal 2025 indicates a more cautious path forward. As consumer trends shift and competition intensifies, Campbell's has a difficult task ahead if it is to achieve growth in the coming quarters. At present, CPB carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

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