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Recursion Pharma Down 37% in a Month: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

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Recursion Pharma (RXRX - Free Report) shares have plunged 37.1% in the past month compared with the industry’s 1.4% decline. The company has also underperformed in the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below. The stock is currently trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

RXRX Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500

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The recent decline in Recursion Pharma's stock can be attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions and company-specific challenges. On a larger scale, skepticism surrounding the policies of the new U.S. government has led to a downturn in the overall medical market, negatively impacting RXRX's share price. At the company level, its heavy reliance on collaboration revenues introduces financial uncertainty, as disruptions in partnerships or unsuccessful studies could jeopardize future payments and hinder operational funding.

Investors are also apprehensive of the company’s pipeline potential as its investigational candidates are still in the early stages of development and far from commercialization. There are chances that it will not have a product in the market for three to four years at least. We note that clinical development involves a high degree of risk. Clinching a nod for the pipeline candidates has become more difficult due to the tough regulatory environment. Development and regulatory setbacks for the pipeline candidates will be a major disappointment for the company, leaving an adverse impact on its shares.

Additionally, Recursion Pharma faces intense competition from biotech firms, tech-driven drug discovery companies, and pharmaceutical giants, all leveraging computational tools and scalable platforms. Rivalry from companies like Relay Therapeutics, Isomorphic Labs, and even tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft could challenge Recursion’s ability to differentiate itself and sustain its competitive edge.

However, RXRX’s solid fundamentals and the promising potential of its AI-driven drug discovery platform, Recursion OS, developed in collaboration with NVIDIA Corporation, lead us to believe the stock could deliver multi-bagger returns in the future. Recently, Recursion Pharma acquired Exscientia, which added several clinical and preclinical candidates to the latter’s portfolio. Let’s dig deeper and understand the company’s strengths and weaknesses in greater detail to understand how to play the stock after the recent price drop.

RXRX’s Potential to Revolutionize the Drug Development Process

Recursion Pharma aims to shift the paradigm of drug discovery and development, which has historically been complex, costly, and prone to failure. Traditional biotech companies rely on a “trial-and-error” approach, leading to significant cash burn during early research and development. The high failure rates and funding challenges often result in financial instability or bankruptcy, hindering progress in the sector.

In contrast, Recursion Pharma leverages AI-powered models to test clinical compounds against a virtual library of human biology, hoping to identify promising candidates with higher probabilities of success in clinical development. This approach could reduce research costs, improve efficiency, and allow RXRX to deliver breakthrough therapies at lower prices. Additionally, the company can generate incremental revenues by licensing its AI platform to other drug makers, as demonstrated by its collaborations with Bayer (BAYRY - Free Report) and Roche (RHHBY - Free Report) . Even when candidates fail in clinical studies, Recursion Pharma could use the resulting data to refine and enhance its AI models, improving accuracy and long-term outcomes.

RXRX’s Pipeline Development Progressing Well

Recursion Pharma is developing its lead candidate, REC-994, for treating cerebral cavernous malformation (CCM), a neurovascular condition that impacts approximately 360,000 symptomatic individuals in the United States and the EU. The disease is often underdiagnosed and potentially affects more than one million patients worldwide, representing a significant market opportunity. Last year, the company reported meeting the primary safety endpoint in a mid-stage study of the candidate for this indication. Recursion Pharmaplans to meet with the FDA to align on a pathway for further development of REC-994 as a potential treatment of symptomatic CCM in subsequent studies.  

The company’s other key pipeline candidates in mid-stage development include REC-2282 (neurofibromatosis type II), REC-4881 (familial adenomatous polyposis), REC-3964 (recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection) and REC-1245 (biomarker-enriched solid tumors and lymphoma). Recursion Pharma is also developing a few other candidates like REC-617 (advanced solid tumors), REC-3565 (B-cell malignancies) and REC-4539 (small-cell lung cancer) in separate early-stage studies.

Additionally, RXRX has ongoing collaboration agreements with pharma giants like Roche, Bayer, Merck (MRK - Free Report) and Sanofi to develop candidates for several oncology indications with differentiated mechanisms of action.

RXRX’s Premium Valuation & Improving Estimates

Recursion Pharma is trading at a premium to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/book value ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 2.62, which is more than 1.25 for the industry.

RXRX Stock Valuation

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Loss estimates for 2025 have narrowed from $1.42 to $1.41 per share over the past 30 days. During the same time frame, Recursion Pharma’s 2026 loss per share estimates have narrowed from $1.35 to $1.25.

RXRX Estimate Movement

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

How to Play RXRX Stock

Recursion Pharma, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), has a first-mover advantage in AI-driven drug discovery, which positions it as a leader in the space, with a strong pipeline focused on Precision Oncology and Rare Diseases. The successful development and approval of its candidates would validate its AI platform and significantly enhance shareholder value. Collaboration revenues from licensing its drug discovery platform will further boost Recursion Pharma’s top line in the future. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

As clinical studies advance successfully, existing investors may benefit from holding RXRX for potential multi-bagger returns in the future. The recent decline in stock price could also present an attractive entry point for new investors looking to capitalize on its long-term growth potential. However, given the stock’s volatility and dependence on external partnerships, investors with a low appetite for risk may find it prudent to avoid exposure.

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