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90% Advancing Days Offer a Glimmer of Hope in a Corrective Market
After a two-day rally Friday and Monday, bears again were in charge and sent stocks lower Tuesday. The ranges in U.S. equities continue to be wide, and this will only likely be exacerbated when the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision and meets on Wednesday afternoon. Tariff news was light for a change, though the Trump administration continues to confirm that new tariffs will be levied in early April.
Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump talked for over 90 minutes with Russian President Vladimir Putin as he tried to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Details of the call were unclear at the time of this writing.
Though the trading environment continues to be difficult, bulls have three significant things working in their favor, including:
Back-to-Back 90% Advancing Days
One of the best ways to gauge a potential market bottom is to look at breadth (participation). On Friday and Monday, we recorded back-to-back days when 90% of S&P 500 Index stocks advanced. Though such a signal is fairly reliable, Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) crunched the numbers and drilled down further.
When stocks record two straight 90% advancing days after hitting a 6-month low, the S&P 500 Index has been higher in every instance two months later (17 instances). In addition, the market is higher in ten of the past twelve instances using the 6-month and 12-month time-frames.
Post-Election Seasonal Pattern
Election seasonality correctly predicted that stocks would have a weak Q1. However, these same historical seasonality trends suggest that stocks tend to bottom in late March and rally into the summer.
Bullish Sentiment Craters
According to the AAII Bull/Bear sentiment survey, bullish sentiment recently reached the lowest levels (17.7%) since September 2022. In addition, for the first time in history, bullish sentiment has been below 20% for three straight weeks.
Finally, a key market area to watch moving forward is the “Magnificent 7” stocks, which have been renamed by many investors on Wall Street as the “Lag7” for their recent underperformance. That said, these mega-cap tech juggernauts still make up a large portion of the market and are often used as “hedge fund” hotels. Tesla, the hardest hit of the bunch, is finally seeing some reprieve after an analyst upgrade this morning and a survey of 450,000 participants that said ~70% would buy a Tesla in a German poll.
Meta Platforms and Amazon are testing their rising 200-day moving averages – an area of potential price support. Meanwhile, names like Apple and Nvidia are below the moving average. However, NVDA was higher in early trade after CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at the GTC global artificial intelligence conference yesterday.
Bottom Line
While the market navigates a complex landscape of geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, and interest rates, the confluence of robust market breadth signals, historically favorable seasonality, and deeply depressed bullish sentiment offers a compelling narrative for future gains.
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Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, Meta and Amazon
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – March 20, 2025 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) , Apple (AAPL - Free Report) , Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) , Meta Platforms (META - Free Report) and Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) .
90% Advancing Days Offer a Glimmer of Hope in a Corrective Market
After a two-day rally Friday and Monday, bears again were in charge and sent stocks lower Tuesday. The ranges in U.S. equities continue to be wide, and this will only likely be exacerbated when the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision and meets on Wednesday afternoon. Tariff news was light for a change, though the Trump administration continues to confirm that new tariffs will be levied in early April.
Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump talked for over 90 minutes with Russian President Vladimir Putin as he tried to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Details of the call were unclear at the time of this writing.
Though the trading environment continues to be difficult, bulls have three significant things working in their favor, including:
Back-to-Back 90% Advancing Days
One of the best ways to gauge a potential market bottom is to look at breadth (participation). On Friday and Monday, we recorded back-to-back days when 90% of S&P 500 Index stocks advanced. Though such a signal is fairly reliable, Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) crunched the numbers and drilled down further.
When stocks record two straight 90% advancing days after hitting a 6-month low, the S&P 500 Index has been higher in every instance two months later (17 instances). In addition, the market is higher in ten of the past twelve instances using the 6-month and 12-month time-frames.
Post-Election Seasonal Pattern
Election seasonality correctly predicted that stocks would have a weak Q1. However, these same historical seasonality trends suggest that stocks tend to bottom in late March and rally into the summer.
Bullish Sentiment Craters
According to the AAII Bull/Bear sentiment survey, bullish sentiment recently reached the lowest levels (17.7%) since September 2022. In addition, for the first time in history, bullish sentiment has been below 20% for three straight weeks.
Finally, a key market area to watch moving forward is the “Magnificent 7” stocks, which have been renamed by many investors on Wall Street as the “Lag7” for their recent underperformance. That said, these mega-cap tech juggernauts still make up a large portion of the market and are often used as “hedge fund” hotels. Tesla, the hardest hit of the bunch, is finally seeing some reprieve after an analyst upgrade this morning and a survey of 450,000 participants that said ~70% would buy a Tesla in a German poll.
Meta Platforms and Amazon are testing their rising 200-day moving averages – an area of potential price support. Meanwhile, names like Apple and Nvidia are below the moving average. However, NVDA was higher in early trade after CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at the GTC global artificial intelligence conference yesterday.
Bottom Line
While the market navigates a complex landscape of geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, and interest rates, the confluence of robust market breadth signals, historically favorable seasonality, and deeply depressed bullish sentiment offers a compelling narrative for future gains.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
See Stocks Free >>
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.