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The first quarter was a rough one for US investors. US equities have lagged international equities for the first time in years, and the S&P 500 Index is down 4~% while the Nasdaq 100 is down ~7%. Fear and uncertainty about the Trump tariff plan (which will be unveiled soon and go into effect April 2nd) and high valuations in the tech sector are the culprits for the correction.
Bears will tell you that many market uncertainties remain. Conversely, bulls may argue that the correction has already played out, with many tech stocks down 50% or more. Below are five reasons the market has likely bottomed, including:
SPX April Returns When March Down 3% or More
If history is any guide, stocks are set for a strong April. According to BTIG, stocks have never been lower in April after a 3% or worse drawdown in March post-World War Two. Not only have they never been lower, but stocks have averaged a 5.92% April gain and a 17.95% April-End-of-year gain (far surpassing the average for the S&P during a normal year).
IPO Market on Fire
For two reasons, the IPO market can be a fantastic gauge of market sentiment. First, the conviction of new companies to go public can signal optimism about the future. Second, when investors buy these stocks, they are willing to take on more risk than simply buying stocks that have been public for a while. CoreWeave, a cloud platform used to scale AI applications, gained around 20% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Newsmax is up more than 10-fold since going public on Monday!
VIX Term Structure Inverting
Typically, longer-term VIX futures are higher than shorter-term VIX futures (contango). However, this signal has inverted (backwardation) signaling extreme levels of fear. This has been a fantastic bottoming signal for markets in the past few years.
Notable Insider Buying
Insider buying is one of the best ways to gauge management's conviction in their own stock. Unlike insider selling, insiders only buy for one reason – to make money. Over the past few weeks, insider purchases have been made in stocks like IonQ, Oklo and Reddit.
QQQ Bear Trap
On Monday, the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF whooshed below the March lows before reversing higher to create a "hammer candle." Such a pattern is often a shakeout that turns into a reversal and a market bottom.
Bottom Line
Despite a challenging first quarter marked by tariff uncertainty and higher valuations, there are several signals, including seasonality, the IPO market, and the VIX, that suggest a market bottom is nearby.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: CoreWeave, Newsmax, IonQ, Oklo and Reddit
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – April 2, 2025– Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights CoreWeave (CRWV - Free Report) , Newsmax (NMAX - Free Report) , IonQ (IONQ - Free Report) , Oklo (OKLO - Free Report) and Reddit (RDDT - Free Report) .
Market Bottom in Sight After Q1 Struggles?
The first quarter was a rough one for US investors. US equities have lagged international equities for the first time in years, and the S&P 500 Index is down 4~% while the Nasdaq 100 is down ~7%. Fear and uncertainty about the Trump tariff plan (which will be unveiled soon and go into effect April 2nd) and high valuations in the tech sector are the culprits for the correction.
Bears will tell you that many market uncertainties remain. Conversely, bulls may argue that the correction has already played out, with many tech stocks down 50% or more. Below are five reasons the market has likely bottomed, including:
SPX April Returns When March Down 3% or More
If history is any guide, stocks are set for a strong April. According to BTIG, stocks have never been lower in April after a 3% or worse drawdown in March post-World War Two. Not only have they never been lower, but stocks have averaged a 5.92% April gain and a 17.95% April-End-of-year gain (far surpassing the average for the S&P during a normal year).
IPO Market on Fire
For two reasons, the IPO market can be a fantastic gauge of market sentiment. First, the conviction of new companies to go public can signal optimism about the future. Second, when investors buy these stocks, they are willing to take on more risk than simply buying stocks that have been public for a while. CoreWeave, a cloud platform used to scale AI applications, gained around 20% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Newsmax is up more than 10-fold since going public on Monday!
VIX Term Structure Inverting
Typically, longer-term VIX futures are higher than shorter-term VIX futures (contango). However, this signal has inverted (backwardation) signaling extreme levels of fear. This has been a fantastic bottoming signal for markets in the past few years.
Notable Insider Buying
Insider buying is one of the best ways to gauge management's conviction in their own stock. Unlike insider selling, insiders only buy for one reason – to make money. Over the past few weeks, insider purchases have been made in stocks like IonQ, Oklo and Reddit.
QQQ Bear Trap
On Monday, the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF whooshed below the March lows before reversing higher to create a "hammer candle." Such a pattern is often a shakeout that turns into a reversal and a market bottom.
Bottom Line
Despite a challenging first quarter marked by tariff uncertainty and higher valuations, there are several signals, including seasonality, the IPO market, and the VIX, that suggest a market bottom is nearby.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
See Stocks Free >>
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.