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Rise in AUM to Aid BlackRock's Q1 Earnings, Higher Expenses to Hurt

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BlackRock (BLK - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 11, before the opening bell. Its quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have improved year over year.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

BLK’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited from a rise in revenues and impressive growth in assets under management (AUM). However, higher expenses and lower non-operating income were undermining factors.

BlackRock has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6%.

BlackRock Price and EPS Surprise

BlackRock Price and EPS Surprise

BlackRock price-eps-surprise | BlackRock Quote

Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts for the to-be-reported quarter, let us check the factors that are likely to have impacted BlackRock’s performance.

Major Factors to Note & Q1 Estimates for BLK

AUM: BlackRock is a dominant player in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, given its continued investments in the U.S. iShare core ETFs (offering more than 1,400 ETFs globally). Also, the approval and listing of spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs is likely to have contributed to AUM growth.

In line with its organic growth strategy, BlackRock continues to boost its AUM through diversified offerings and a strong revenue mix. However, higher-for-longer interest rates, alongside concerns regarding retaliation to Trump’s tariff policies, are likely to have impacted AUM due to unfavorable market returns.

Nonetheless, a steepening yield curve is likely to have resulted in higher inflows to fixed-income products. Also, the listing of bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETP) is likely to have positively impacted the AUM, though the impact is unlikely to be significant.

Moreover, Preqin's acquisition is likely to have enhanced private markets data and analytics capabilities, further strengthening BLK’s alternatives platform.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM is pegged at $11.79 trillion, suggesting a year-over-year jump of 12.6%. Our estimate for AUM is $11.78 trillion.

Revenue Components: BlackRock is expected to have recorded decent growth in its investment advisory, administration fees and securities-lending revenues on improving inflows and new offerings, partially offset by market depreciation. The consensus estimate for the metric stands at $4.38 billion, suggesting a 15.9% year-over-year rise. Our estimate for the same is pegged at $4.31 billion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment advisory performance fees is pegged at $224.1 million, indicating 9.8% growth. Our estimate for the same is $342.9 million.

The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $318.1 million suggests a rise of 2.7%. We project the metric to be $314.6 million. The consensus estimate for technology services revenues is pegged at $446.9 million, implying an 18.5% year-over-year rise. We project the metric to increase to $429.5 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for advisory and other revenues is pegged at $64.4 million, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 9.2%. We project the metric to be $60.2 million.

Expenses: BlackRock’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. Overall costs are expected to have increased in the first quarter, given that the company has been continuing its restructuring initiatives to modify the size and shape of its workforce and improve operating efficiency. Also, the company’s inorganic expansion efforts are likely to have resulted in an increase in expenses.

Our estimate for total expenses is pegged at $3.53 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 16.2%.

Major Developments in Q1 for BlackRock

Preqin Acquisition: In March, BlackRock completed the acquisition of Preqin, a premier independent provider of private markets data. This solidifies the company’s private market capabilities to meet clients' rising demand.

The deal, announced in June 2024, worth almost $3.2 billion (£2.55 billion) in cash, reflected a significant milestone in BlackRock’s strategy to enhance its private markets capabilities by integrating investments, technology and data across the entire portfolio.

With Preqin, BLK aims to address transparency concerns in private markets, positioning its private markets platform to deliver investments, technology and data holistically to power next-generation investment solutions for clients.

Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Product in Europe: In March, BlackRock launched a bitcoin exchange-traded product, iShares Bitcoin, in Europe after the solid performance of its $48 billion U.S. fund that tracks the cryptocurrency.

What Our Model Unveils for BlackRock

According to our quantitative model, the chances of BlackRock beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it doesn’t have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BlackRock is -2.06%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings of $10.69 has been revised 1.4% downward over the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $5.46 billion, which suggests a rise of 15.5%.

Finance Stocks Worth a Look

Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases, per our model:

JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) is scheduled to release quarterly earnings on April 11. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.74% at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM’s quarterly earnings has moved 1.1% upward to $4.62.

The Earnings ESP for Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) is +0.89% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report quarterly results on April 14.

Quarterly earnings estimates for GS have been revised marginally downward to $12.72 over the past week.


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