Wall Street surged last week on cues of trade de-escalation and a revival in tech stocks. However, market volatility has remained elevated as traders react to ongoing developments in global trade policy.

Uncertainty surrounds U.S.-China trade talks after China said on April 24 there were no negotiations underway, following earlier U.S. signals, suggesting a possible softening in stance. Piper Sandler analysts believe that the Trump administration is unlikely to engage in any major tariff negotiations in the near term, as quoted on CNBC.

In a Friday note, the firm emphasized that Trump has remained steadfast on trade policy, with current tariff levels exceeding even his most ambitious campaign proposals from 2024. "Tariffs today are at the highest levels in more than a century," the firm wrote.

With Trump continuing to drive the trade agenda personally, Piper Sandler expects few, if any, comprehensive deals with major trading partners over the next few months.

Tariff De-escalation Seen as Unlikely

Piper Sandler added that a rollback in tariffs is highly unlikely, particularly given Trump’s previous comments about his willingness to tolerate economic softening. Piper Sandler warned investors to remain defensive until there is clearer evidence of trade reliefs and economic stabilization.

Strong Q1 Earnings, but Clouds Ahead

Roughly one-third of the way through the first-quarter earnings season, corporate results have largely exceeded expectations. According to early reports, S&P 500 companies have delivered earnings 7% above forecasts and revenues 1% ahead of consensus. However,despite a strong start, there has been a dramatic reversal in expectations for the rest of 2025.

Second Quarter Now Expected to be Weakest

Heading into the earnings season, the first quarter was expected to be the year’s softest. But growing uncertainty over macroeconomic conditions and trade policy has prompted many companies to issue downbeat second-quarter forecasts or withdraw full-year projections altogether.

As a result, analysts have cut estimates for the second, third and fourth quarters, leaving the first quarter now projected to have the highest earnings growth of the year. Currently, the second quarter is shaping up to be the worst period of 2025 in terms of earnings performance.

Any Hopes Ahead?

Despite the uncertainty around tariffs and trade, Citi analysts are growing more optimistic about the market's trajectory, the CNBC article noted. Citi believes that as long as the momentum in trade negotiations remains positive and monetary policy becomes more supportive, equities should continue to stabilize and grind higher in the coming months.

Time for Buffer ETFs?

Defined outcome or “buffer” ETFs, which use derivatives to provide market upside participation up to a cap while limiting downside risk, have become increasingly popular with investors. Interest in these strategies has surged this year, with investors pouring in about $7 billion (read: Buffer ETFs Attract Billions as Investors Seek Shelter from Market Turmoil).

Buffer ETFs invest in a basket of FLEX options with varying strike prices. The strategy typically involves buying call options to gain index exposure and put options for downside protection, then offsetting the costs by selling call options—thereby capping the upside.

FT Vest Gold Strategy Quarterly Buffer ETF (BGLD Quick QuoteBGLD - Free Report)

The FT Vest Gold Strategy Quarterly Buffer ETF seeks to provide investors with returns before fees, expenses and taxes that match those of the SPDR Gold Trust, up to a predetermined upside cap of 6.10% before fees, expenses and taxes and 6.01% after fees and expenses while providing a buffer against losses between -5% and -15% before fees, expenses and taxes.

The fund gained 5.6% over the past year versus 8% gains in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY Quick QuoteSPY - Free Report) (as of April 25, 2025). The BGLD yields 21.53% annually. The BGLD ETF gained 3.4% past month (as of April 25, 2025).

FT Vest International Equity Moderate Buffer ETF - September (YSEP Quick QuoteYSEP - Free Report)

The FT Vest International Equity Moderate Buffer ETF - September seeks to provide investors with returns, before fees and expenses, matching the price return of the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, up to a predetermined upside cap of 13.47% while providing a buffer, before fees and expenses, against the first 15% of Underlying ETF losses, from September 23, 2024 through September 19, 2025.

The fund gained 10.14% past year and 0.3% past month (as of April 25, 2025) while SPY lost 2.9% past month.

Innovator International Developed Power Buffer ETF - October (IOCT Quick QuoteIOCT - Free Report)

The Innovator International Developed Power Buffer ETF - October provides investors with returns matching the price return of the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, up to the upside cap of 14.64%, prior to management and other fees, while providing a buffer against the first 15%, prior to management and other fees, of iShares MSCI EAFE ETF losses, from Oct. 1, 2024, to Sept. 30, 2025.

The fund gained 9.5% past year and 0.3% past month (as of April 25, 2025).