Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Will Declining Medical Customers Affect Cigna's Q1 Earnings?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Global health insurance company The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 2, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $6.39 per share on revenues of $60.8 billion. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

The first-quarter earnings estimate declined by 2 cents over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 1.2%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 6.2%.

Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna’s revenues is pegged at $252.36 billion, implying a rise of 2.1% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $29.61, signaling growth of 8.3%, year over year.

Cignabeat the earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being negative 0.4%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Cigna Group Price and EPS Surprise

Cigna Group Price and EPS Surprise

Cigna Group price-eps-surprise | Cigna Group Quote

Q1 Earnings Whispers for Cigna

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

CI has an Earnings ESP of -0.34% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping Cigna’s Q1 Results?

Cigna’s revenues are likely to have benefited on the back of solid pharmacy revenues stemming from a well-performing specialty pharmacy business within the Evernorth segment. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pharmacy revenues indicates 8.4% improvement from the prior-year quarter’s number.

The consensus mark for revenues from the overall Evernorth Health Services segment is pegged at $50.5 billion, indicating 9.3% growth from the prior-year quarter’s figure. Also, the consensus estimate for fees and other revenues signals 16.8% year-over-year growth.

However, the consensus mark for premiums predicts an 8.6% decrease from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna Healthcare revenues suggests an 8.5% decrease. The consensus mark for Cigna’s total medical customers is pegged at 18.3 million, indicating a decline from 19.2 million a year ago.

A decline in net investment income is likely to have been a roadblock to Cigna’s revenue growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income suggests an 11.9% year-over-year decline. 

Its margins are expected to have suffered a blow due to an elevated medical cost level resulting from continued higher utilization trends and unit cost inflation. This, in turn, is likely to have led to an elevated medical care ratio (MCR) for Cigna. The consensus mark for MCR is pegged at 82.39%, up from 79.9% a year ago. 

Stocks That Warrant a Look

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Cigna, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Benitec Biopharma Inc. (BNTC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +27.27% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Benitec Biopharma’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates 78.1% improvement from the year-ago period. The estimate witnessed one upward revision over the past month against no movement in the opposite direction.

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.66% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 31.7% year-over-year improvement. Tarsus Pharmaceuticals beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 16.6%.

Cencora, Inc. (COR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cencora’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter signals a 7.4% growth from a year ago. Cencora beat earnings estimates in all the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.9%.

Published in