Uber Technologies (UBER Quick QuoteUBER - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2025 results on May 7, before market open. The results are expected to be highly influenced by how the company performs with respect to a key metric – gross bookings.

Uber’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 133.5%. Before we delve into the factors that might have shaped UBER’s upcoming results, here is a snapshot of its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings report.

Uber’s Q4 Highlights

Uber's earnings per share of $3.21 outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50 cents and improved more than 100% on a year-over-year basis. Total revenues of $11.9 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.7 billion. The top line jumped 20.4% year over year on a reported basis and 21% on a constant currency basis.

In the fourth quarter, the majority (57.7%) of the company’s revenues came from Mobility. Revenues from this segment jumped 25% year over year on a reported basis and 26% on a constant currency basis to $6.91 billion, owing to an increase in Mobility gross bookings due to a rise in trip volumes.

Revenues from the Delivery segment increased 21% year over year on a reported basis and 20% on a constant currency basis to $3.77 billion, owing to an increase in delivery gross bookings due to growth in trip volumes and a rise in advertising revenues.

Freight revenues were $1.27 billion, down 0.4% year over year on a reported basis, as well as on a constant currency basis, due to a decrease in revenue per load as a result of the challenging freight market conditions.

Gross Bookings are Likely to Have Been Disappointing in Q1

Gross bookings are likely to have been hurt in the March quarter by currency headwinds and unfavorable winter weather. Management expects total gross bookings in the March quarter to be in the range of $42 billion to $43.5 billion, indicating growth on a constant currency basis in the 17-21% band from first-quarter 2024 actuals. The mid-point of the guided range (i.e., $42.75 billion) is below the fourth-quarter 2024 actual figure of $44.1 billion. Our estimate is currently pegged at $43.3 billion.

The management’s guidance includes an estimated 5.5 percentage point impact from a strong greenback.  It implies a roughly 7 percentage point and 4 percentage point currency headwind to Mobility and Delivery growth, respectively.

We expect gross bookings in Uber’s Mobility segment to be $21.6 billion, representing 15.6% growth from year-ago actuals. Gross bookings in Uber’s Delivery segment are expected to be $20.3 billion, representing 15.1% growth from year-ago actuals.

Total trips are also likely to have been subdued due to the headwinds in the quarter to be reported. Rising insurance prices have been hurting Uber’s rideshare business. These high costs have also been blamed for the slowdown in rideshare demand.

However, the bright part is that since the first quarter covered a period (January-March) of more or less normal business and the new tariffs took effect in the second quarter, tariff woes are unlikely to have been reflected in the gross bookings numbers of the March quarter. 

Overall Earnings & Revenue Estimations of UBER

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is pegged at 51 cents per share. The projection compares favorably with the loss of 32 cents per share reported by Uber in the first quarter of 2024. The March-quarter consensus mark for earnings per share has remained stable in the past 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.6 billion for sales indicates a 14.5% rise on a year-over-year basis.

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Uber, as it does not have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and an appropriate Zacks Rank. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.20% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Key Sectoral Players to Report Q1 results

Uber’s main competitor,Lyft (LYFT Quick QuoteLYFT - Free Report) , is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 8. The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

We expect Lyft's performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in total revenues. Its top-line growth is likely to have been driven by an increase in active riders as the ride-share market rebounds from the pandemic lows. High inflation might, however, hurt results in the to-be-reported quarter.

Another key player from the broader Computer and Technology sector, DoorDash (DASH Quick QuoteDASH - Free Report) , is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 7. DASH has an Earnings ESP of +7.68% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s first-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $3.09 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 23.06%. For earnings, the consensus mark is pegged at 38 cents per share, implying a rise of more than 100% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the past four quarters and missed twice, the average negative surprise being 46.9%.