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The TJX Companies' Stock Rises 32% in a Year: To Hold or Fold?
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The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) has seen an impressive 31.7% surge in its stock price over the past year. This strong rally raises a crucial question: Should investors take profits now, or is there still room for further upside?
The TJX Companies has maintained a strong market position by focusing on operational discipline, value-driven offerings and expanding its global store footprint. Its off-price model continues to attract cost-conscious shoppers, helping it outperform many retail peers. In the past year, TJX stock has outperformed the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry, the broader Retail and Wholesale sector, and the S&P 500, which posted gains of 16%, 13.2% and 9.8%, respectively.
TJX Price Performance vs. Industry, S&P 500 & Sector
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The TJX Companies has also outperformed its key competitors, such as Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) , Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) , and Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) . Over the past year, Burlington Stores and Costco posted gains of 26.3% and 31.6%, respectively, while Dollar General saw a decline of 34.1%.
Closing the current trading session at $128.94, TJX stock is now 1.8% below its 52-week high of $131.30, reached on April 15. This slight pullback from recent highs may reflect some profit-taking after a strong rally. Nevertheless, TJX continues to trade above its 50 and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the stock’s underlying bullish trend.
TJX Trades Above 50 and 200-Day Moving Average
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TJX Boosts Growth With Value, Efficiency and Expansion
TJX stands out for its flexible off-price model, which lets it adjust quickly to trends and offer fresh, branded products at strong value. This keeps shoppers engaged and encourages repeat visits, giving TJX an edge over traditional and online retailers. The company’s wide global presence and diverse banners give it strong reach and resilience. With disciplined store growth and new market entries like Spain and Mexico, TJX is well-positioned for long-term expansion.
The company continues to benefit from its unwavering focus on delivering exceptional value and a distinctive shopping experience to customers. A key sign of its operational strength is the steady growth in customer traffic, which has fueled consistent comparable store sales gains. The company’s off-price model, strong brand appeal and treasure-hunt shopping atmosphere remain central to its sustained long-term success.
The TJX Companies continues to benefit from strategic store expansion across the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia. In fiscal 2025, the company added 131 stores, ending the year with a total of 5,085 locations. For fiscal 2026, TJX plans to open approximately 130 net new stores, aiming to surpass 5,200 locations, a 3% year-over-year increase. The retailer also advanced its e-commerce strategy, growing online sales through expanded assortments and an enhanced digital "treasure-hunt" experience.
The TJX Companies entered fiscal 2026 with a strong inventory position, setting the stage to seize market opportunities and deliver fresh assortments both in stores and online. In its last earnings call, management highlighted that it expects consolidated comparable store sales to grow between 2% and 3% for fiscal 2026, reflecting continued customer demand and merchandising strength.
TJX projects consolidated sales for fiscal 2026 in the range of $58.1 billion to $58.6 billion, representing a 3% to 4% year-over-year increase. Earnings are expected to be between $4.34 and $4.43, up from $4.26 in fiscal 2025. For the fiscal first quarter, the company anticipates comparable store sales growth in the 2% to 3% range.
The TJX Companies: An Attractive Value Opportunity
TJX is currently trading at a discount to its industry benchmarks. The company’s forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 28.39X is lower than the industry average of 32.41X. Among peers, Costco trades at a premium with a forward P/E of 52.96, while Burlington Stores and Dollar General are priced more conservatively at 24.48X and 16.16X, respectively.
TJX Valuation Picture
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The TJX Companies Navigates Key Challenges Ahead
TJX faces several challenges that could impact its near-term performance. Rising operating costs, driven by inflationary pressures and wage increases, may squeeze margins. despite efforts to control expenses. Foreign exchange headwinds may further hurt profitability. Additionally, ongoing trade tensions and tariffs with China continue to pose a threat. Intensifying competition in the retail sector also adds to TJX's challenges,
The company has been facing the challenges of rising expenses, particularly from higher store wages and payroll costs. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company is projecting SG&A expenses to increase to 20%, an 80-basis-point rise from last year’s 19.2%. This increase is largely driven by additional store wages and payroll costs, as well as the lapping of a one-time benefit from the previous year.
The company faces the risk of unfavorable foreign currency translations due to its significant international presence. Foreign exchange headwinds are expected to hurt the pretax profit margin by about 0.2 percentage points and drag earnings per share growth by approximately 3% in fiscal 2026.
For fiscal 2026, the company is forecasting a slight decline in its gross margin, with the expectation of a reduction of about 10 to 20 basis points compared to the previous year. This decline is primarily attributed to unfavorable transactional foreign exchange and inventory hedge.
How to Play TJX Stock?
The TJX Companies has delivered strong stock performance over the past year, supported by solid fundamentals, steady comparable sales growth, disciplined operations, and strategic global expansion. While the long-term outlook remains promising, near-term challenges like rising costs and currency fluctuations could pressure margins. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), investors may consider maintaining their positions while monitoring margin trends and future earnings momentum before making new commitments. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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The TJX Companies' Stock Rises 32% in a Year: To Hold or Fold?
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX - Free Report) has seen an impressive 31.7% surge in its stock price over the past year. This strong rally raises a crucial question: Should investors take profits now, or is there still room for further upside?
The TJX Companies has maintained a strong market position by focusing on operational discipline, value-driven offerings and expanding its global store footprint. Its off-price model continues to attract cost-conscious shoppers, helping it outperform many retail peers. In the past year, TJX stock has outperformed the Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry, the broader Retail and Wholesale sector, and the S&P 500, which posted gains of 16%, 13.2% and 9.8%, respectively.
TJX Price Performance vs. Industry, S&P 500 & Sector
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The TJX Companies has also outperformed its key competitors, such as Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) , Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) , and Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) . Over the past year, Burlington Stores and Costco posted gains of 26.3% and 31.6%, respectively, while Dollar General saw a decline of 34.1%.
Closing the current trading session at $128.94, TJX stock is now 1.8% below its 52-week high of $131.30, reached on April 15. This slight pullback from recent highs may reflect some profit-taking after a strong rally. Nevertheless, TJX continues to trade above its 50 and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the stock’s underlying bullish trend.
TJX Trades Above 50 and 200-Day Moving Average
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TJX Boosts Growth With Value, Efficiency and Expansion
TJX stands out for its flexible off-price model, which lets it adjust quickly to trends and offer fresh, branded products at strong value. This keeps shoppers engaged and encourages repeat visits, giving TJX an edge over traditional and online retailers. The company’s wide global presence and diverse banners give it strong reach and resilience. With disciplined store growth and new market entries like Spain and Mexico, TJX is well-positioned for long-term expansion.
The company continues to benefit from its unwavering focus on delivering exceptional value and a distinctive shopping experience to customers. A key sign of its operational strength is the steady growth in customer traffic, which has fueled consistent comparable store sales gains. The company’s off-price model, strong brand appeal and treasure-hunt shopping atmosphere remain central to its sustained long-term success.
The TJX Companies continues to benefit from strategic store expansion across the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia. In fiscal 2025, the company added 131 stores, ending the year with a total of 5,085 locations. For fiscal 2026, TJX plans to open approximately 130 net new stores, aiming to surpass 5,200 locations, a 3% year-over-year increase. The retailer also advanced its e-commerce strategy, growing online sales through expanded assortments and an enhanced digital "treasure-hunt" experience.
The TJX Companies entered fiscal 2026 with a strong inventory position, setting the stage to seize market opportunities and deliver fresh assortments both in stores and online. In its last earnings call, management highlighted that it expects consolidated comparable store sales to grow between 2% and 3% for fiscal 2026, reflecting continued customer demand and merchandising strength.
TJX projects consolidated sales for fiscal 2026 in the range of $58.1 billion to $58.6 billion, representing a 3% to 4% year-over-year increase. Earnings are expected to be between $4.34 and $4.43, up from $4.26 in fiscal 2025. For the fiscal first quarter, the company anticipates comparable store sales growth in the 2% to 3% range.
The TJX Companies: An Attractive Value Opportunity
TJX is currently trading at a discount to its industry benchmarks. The company’s forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 28.39X is lower than the industry average of 32.41X. Among peers, Costco trades at a premium with a forward P/E of 52.96, while Burlington Stores and Dollar General are priced more conservatively at 24.48X and 16.16X, respectively.
TJX Valuation Picture
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The TJX Companies Navigates Key Challenges Ahead
TJX faces several challenges that could impact its near-term performance. Rising operating costs, driven by inflationary pressures and wage increases, may squeeze margins. despite efforts to control expenses. Foreign exchange headwinds may further hurt profitability. Additionally, ongoing trade tensions and tariffs with China continue to pose a threat. Intensifying competition in the retail sector also adds to TJX's challenges,
The company has been facing the challenges of rising expenses, particularly from higher store wages and payroll costs. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company is projecting SG&A expenses to increase to 20%, an 80-basis-point rise from last year’s 19.2%. This increase is largely driven by additional store wages and payroll costs, as well as the lapping of a one-time benefit from the previous year.
The company faces the risk of unfavorable foreign currency translations due to its significant international presence. Foreign exchange headwinds are expected to hurt the pretax profit margin by about 0.2 percentage points and drag earnings per share growth by approximately 3% in fiscal 2026.
For fiscal 2026, the company is forecasting a slight decline in its gross margin, with the expectation of a reduction of about 10 to 20 basis points compared to the previous year. This decline is primarily attributed to unfavorable transactional foreign exchange and inventory hedge.
How to Play TJX Stock?
The TJX Companies has delivered strong stock performance over the past year, supported by solid fundamentals, steady comparable sales growth, disciplined operations, and strategic global expansion. While the long-term outlook remains promising, near-term challenges like rising costs and currency fluctuations could pressure margins. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), investors may consider maintaining their positions while monitoring margin trends and future earnings momentum before making new commitments. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.