In the Global Week Ahead, as global growth worries increase, the coming days could be defined by relief, if further U.S. trade deals come through — with a focus on Mainland China — or more pessimism, if macro data disappoint.

• U.S. President Donald Trump heads to the Middle East
• Asian currencies are on the rise, and 
• Germany's new leader just got off to a wobbly start

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) On Tuesday, the U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data for April comes out

A fresh look at inflation and consumer spending are the highlights of a busy week of U.S. data as investors and policymakers assess how Trump's tariffs are affecting growth and prices.

Tuesday's April CPI will give a fresh read on inflation trends, while April Retail Sales numbers on Thursday offer the latest view on consumer spending.

Retail sales increased by the most in over two years in March, as households stepped up auto purchases and other goods to avoid higher prices from tariffs.

Investors are waiting to see whether weakness in sentiment surveys and other "soft data" translates into a slowdown.

The Federal Reserve last Wednesday, keeping rates steady, said the risks of both higher inflation and unemployment had risen.

U.S. quarterly earnings also continue, with Walmart results among the most closely watched in the coming week.
 

(2) The U.K. has struck a 1st trade deal — with the new U.S. administration

Britain has struck the first trade deal with Washington.

Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed the "breakthrough" agreement on May 8th that included lowering or removing tariffs on U.K. shipments of cars, engines and plane parts, and aluminum and steel, in return for more access to the British market for U.S. beef and machinery, among others.

The kicker: Trump's 10% tariff for everything else remains, and this is for a staunch U.S. ally that boasts a trade surplus, meaning it may not serve as a blueprint for others.

The impact of tariffs on the economy has created such uncertainty that Bank of England policymakers are split on monetary policy.

Next week's data on U.K. employment and growth would ordinarily offer a decent steer, but now might be in investors' rear-view mirrors.
 

(3) Asian FX rates to the U.S. Dollar? They have been strengthening

Asian currencies are back, after years of being sidelined by the mighty U.S. dollar.

An unprecedented surge in Taiwan's dollar, up 8% over two trading days, suggests money is moving into Asia at scale, capturing the attention of central banks.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened to maintain its currency peg to the dollar.

Investors are also speculating that the meteoric rise in Taiwan's currency could be telling of a 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' with the United States, despite pushback from the island's president.

The notion countries will allow their currencies to strengthen as part of trade negotiations with the U.S. will remain on investors' minds as long-awaited talks between the U.S. and China get underway.

Notably, South Korea's delegation in Washington has said the country's finance ministry and the U.S. Treasury would hold separate discussions on currency policy at the request of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
 

(4) There is a new German government in place now

New German Chancellor Friedrich Merz got off to a bumpy start after failing to win parliamentary backing for the role in a first vote, an unprecedented snub in post-war Germany.

That's focused attention on the challenges Merz faces in delivering on his plans to lift Europe's biggest economy out of its malaise.

Germany's economy has contracted for three straight years.

Merz lit a fire under European markets following February's election, pushing for a spending splurge on defense and infrastructure to help boost long-term growth. The euro and German stocks rallied.

Tuesday's temporary setback in parliament is a reminder of the frailty of the ruling coalition and makes it even more unlikely, some reckon, that Merz would back a permanent financing of European spending through joint bonds — deeply unpopular with his center-right party.
 

(5) President Trump heads out on a Middle East tour

Trump's first major diplomatic trip kicks off next week, with a three-country Middle East tour starting in Saudi Arabia.

The visit will be accompanied by investment conferences, with a raft of trade and security issues on the agenda.

Trump has flagged he will soon have an announcement on whether the U.S. will ease microchip export restrictions to some Gulf countries.

Saudi Arabia has said mining and minerals deals will be discussed.

Energy is also set to feature prominently.

Washington, sources say, will no longer demand Saudi Arabia normalize ties with Israel as a condition for progress on civil nuclear cooperation talks.

This would be a major U.S. concession.

Notably, Trump's trip is not expected to include a stop in ally Israel.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

(1) Amphenol (APH Quick QuoteAPH - Free Report) : This is an $80 a share stock, with a market cap of $897.8B. It is found in the Zacks Electronics-Connectors industry. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Amphenol designs, manufactures and markets electrical, electronic and fiber optic connectors, interconnect systems, antennas, sensors and sensor-based products and coaxial and high-speed specialty cable.

Amphenol’s manufacturing facilities are generally vertically integrated operations from the initial design stage through final design and manufacturing. The company’s manufacturing presence is in more than 30 countries.

Amphenol reported net sales of $15.2 billion in 2024.

Effective Jan 1st, 2022, Amphenol aligned its businesses into three newly formed reportable business segments: (i) Harsh Environment Solutions, (ii) Communications Solutions and (iii) Interconnect and Sensor Systems:

• Harsh Environment Solutions segment designs, manufactures and markets a broad range of ruggedized interconnect products, including connectors and interconnect systems, printed circuits and printed circuit assemblies and other products
• Communications Solutions segment designs, manufactures and markets a broad range of connector and interconnect systems, including high speed, radio frequency, power, fiber optic and other products, together with antennas
• Interconnect and Sensor Systems segment designs, manufactures and markets a broad range of sensors, sensor-based systems, connectors and value-add interconnect systems

Automotive, Broadband Communications, Commercial Aerospace, Industrial, Information Technology and Data Communications, Military, Mobile Devices, and Mobile Networks are the primary end markets served by the company.

Amphenol’s primary competitors include Carlisle, Commscope, Delphi, Sensata, TE Connectivity, 3M, among others.

(2) Carvana (CVNA Quick QuoteCVNA - Free Report) : This is an $285 a share stock, with a market cap of $60.9B. It is found in the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Headquartered in Phoenix, AZ, Carvana Co. is a leading e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars.

The company, which had filed for its IPO in 2017, has had an amazing run ever since, with revenues jumping around 16-fold between 2017 and 2024.

Carvana’s end-to-end online business model covers every aspect of used-car retailing — including sales, financing, logistics, inspection and repair centers, as well as software development.

It has transformed traditional used-car sales in several ways.

With a mission of changing the way people buy cars, Carvana is harnessing the power of digitization and applying it to the auto industry. It is changing customers’ shopping experience by letting them find the perfect car from the comfort of their homes without having to haggle with salespeople.

Thanks to advanced technology, customers can browse through its broad inventory — over 53,000 as of Dec 31, 2024 — of high-quality used cars and get a clear and complete view of the interior and exterior of each car.

Once the customers make their selection, the vehicle is either delivered to their home as soon as the next day or available for pick up at a car vending machine.

Importantly, the Carvana car vending machine is the first fully-automated, coin-operated car vending machine in the United States, offering a truly memorable pick-up experience for cars purchased through Carvana.com.

Starting from a single market in Atlanta in 2013, Carvana has now expanded to 316 markets as of 2024 end.

The company’s operating revenues are categorized into three components: retail used-vehicle sales, wholesale used-vehicle sales, and other sales and revenues. 

• Retail used-vehicle sales (accounting for 70.8% of total revenues in 2023) include revenues generated through the sale of used vehicle to customers via website
• Wholesale used vehicle sales (20.8%) comprise proceeds from vehicles sold to wholesalers
• Other sales and revenues (8.4%) include sales of automotive finance receivables that it originates and sells to third parties

During the year ended Dec 31st, 2024, the number of vehicles sold to retail customers rose +33.1% year over year to 416,348 units.

(3) Barclays (BCS Quick QuoteBCS - Free Report) : This is an $16 a share stock, with a market cap of $58.6B. It is found in the Zacks Foreign Bank industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Headquartered in London, Barclays PLC is a major global banking and financial services company with £1,593.5 billion ($2,061.1 billion) in total assets as of March 31st, 2025.

With more than 325 years of expertise in banking, and operating through an international network in nearly 40 countries and regions in Europe, the United States, Africa and Asia, the company provides a wide range of financial services to individuals, corporations and institutions.

Barclays reports its operations through the following divisions:

• Barclays U.K.: The segment represents businesses within the UK ring-fenced bank entity, Barclays Bank UK PLC, and continues to comprise Personal Banking, Business Banking and Barclaycard Consumer UK.
• Barclays U.K. Corporate Bank: This division includes a large part of the Corporate Lending and Transaction Banking businesses. It brings together lending, trade and working capital, liquidity, payments and FX solutions for corporate clients with turnover from £6.5m and higher.
• Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management: This segment comprises the Private Bank business in addition to the Wealth Management & Investments portfolio transferred from Barclays U.K. in May 2023.
• Barclays Investment Bank: This segment incorporates the Global Markets, Investment Banking and International Corporate Banking businesses, serving FTSE 350, multinationals and financial institution clients that are regular users of Investment Bank services.
• Barclays U.S. Consumer Bank: The segment represents the U.S. credit card business, particularly focused in the partnership market as well as an online deposit franchise.
• Head Office: In addition to its existing elements, Head Office now includes the German consumer finance business, which is currently accounted for as held for sale, and the merchant acquiring component of the Payments business.

Key Global Macro

Want the two big macro prints?

They are Tuesday morning’s April CPI print, out at 8:30 am EST, and Thursday U.S. Retail Sales data for April.

On Monday, Mainland China’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for YTD to April comes out.

On Tuesday, the U.S. small business optimism survey from the NFIB comes out for April. The prior reading was 97.4.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for April also comes out. I see a prior +2.4% y/y broad CPI print for March, and a core CPI for March of +2.8% y/y.

On Wednesday, the Fed’s influential Chris Waller gives a speech.

The latest OPEC monthly oil market report comes out.

On Thursday, the Australian household unemployment rate for April comes out. I see a prior 4.1% print from March. That is very similar data to the U.S. labor market, at the moment.

The Euro Area’s Q1 GDP comes out. The Q1-25 expectation is for +1.2%, following a +1.2% prior quarterly print.

U.S. Retail Sales for April come out. I see a prior +4.6% y/y print in place.

Fed Chair Powell gives a speech.

On Friday, U.S. Building Permits for April come out. I see a 1.467M prior print.

U.S. Housing Starts for April also come out. I see a 1.324M prior print.
 

Conclusion

Here is what Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian had for us, on May 8th, 2025—

(1) The ongoing tariff uncertainty has been weighing on the earnings outlook in recent weeks, prompting analysts to cut their estimates for the coming periods.

This trend has been showing in estimates for the current period (Q2-25) as well as for full-year 2025.

(2) The current expectation is for Q2-25 earnings for the S&P500 index to increase by +6.3% from the same period last year on +3.9% higher revenues:

• The +6.3% earnings growth in Q2-25 is down from +9.6% on April 8th, and +12.2% on January 8th
• Estimates for full-year 2025 have similarly been under pressure

(3) This is a bigger decline, relative to what we have become used to seeing in the comparable periods, of other recent quarters:

• This negative revision trend notwithstanding, estimates for the Tech sector have started rising again
• We are seeing this trend reversal for Q2 as well as for full-year 2025

(4) With respect to the Q1-25 earnings season scorecard? 

Zacks estimates now incorporates results from 440 S&P500 members, or 88% of the index’s total membership:
Total earnings for these companies are up +12.2% from the same period last year on +4.1% higher revenues.
73.4% beat EPS estimates. 61.8% beat revenue estimates.

Bulls, you have to appreciate that the rise in Tech sector Q2 and full-year 2025 earnings estimates.

That’s it for me.

Enjoy an excellent week, trading and investing.

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist