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For the fiscal fourth quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $33.08 billion, suggesting a 7.64% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at $1.48 per share, indicating an increase of 5.71% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Alibaba has a mixed earnings surprise history. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 4.87%. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the same twice, the average surprise being 1.47%.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited Price and EPS Surprise
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Alibaba this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Alibaba is expected to deliver robust results in its upcoming fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, building on the strong momentum from its impressive third-quarter performance. Investors should consider positioning themselves ahead of what appears to be another strong quarter, driven by accelerating AI initiatives and cloud computing growth.
The company's strategic focus on "user first, AI-driven" strategies has already demonstrated substantial progress, with customer management revenues at Taobao and Tmall growing 9% in the third quarter, while Cloud revenue growth reignited to double digits at 13%, with AI-related product revenues achieving triple-digit growth for the sixth consecutive quarter.
The fourth quarter witnessed Alibaba making several significant moves that are likely to have positively impacted upcoming results. The company unveiled an unprecedented RMB 380 billion ($53 billion) investment over the next three years in cloud computing and AI infrastructure — an amount exceeding Alibaba's total AI and cloud spending over the past decade. This bold commitment signals the company's determination to maintain its leadership in the global AI race.
Alibaba Cloud continued its global expansion with new cloud regions in Mexico and Thailand, enhancing its international presence to 87 availability zones across 29 regions. These strategic expansions position the company to capture growing cloud computing demand in emerging markets while diversifying its revenue streams beyond China.
The company's PolarDB achieved a groundbreaking world record in the TPC-C benchmark, processing 2.055 billion transactions per minute while reducing cost per transaction by almost 40%. This technological advancement showcases Alibaba's capability to deliver superior performance at lower costs, potentially attracting more enterprise clients to its cloud platform.
Alibaba's AI innovation maintained impressive momentum with its QWQ-32B model topping popularity charts on Hugging Face with more than 80,000 downloads in just one week. Meanwhile, strategic partnerships with BMW, Honor, and Zeekr are expanding Alibaba's AI reach into automobiles and smartphones, creating new revenue opportunities beyond traditional cloud services.
The company's international e-commerce business continued showing strength, with management expecting AIDC to achieve its first quarter of profitability in the next fiscal year. This progress toward profitability in international markets should boost investor confidence in Alibaba's global growth strategy.
With BABA trading at compelling valuations relative to its growth prospects and AI leadership, the upcoming earnings report presents an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to China's technology sector and the booming global AI market.
(See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
BABA Price Performance & Stock Valuation
Alibaba shares have surged 56.3% in the year-to-date period, outperforming the industry, the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 index’s decline of 3%, 1.4% and 4.4%, respectively.
BABA faces tough competition from Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , JD.com (JD - Free Report) and PDD Holdings (PDD - Free Report) among others. While JD and PDD have gained 4% and 20%, respectively, in the year-to-date period, AMZN has lost 4.9%.
Year-to-date Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
It is also important to consider whether the stock's current valuation accurately reflects the company's long-term growth potential and ability to navigate the competitive landscape. Currently, BABA is trading at a discount with a forward 12-month P/E of 11.91X compared with the industry’s 21.24X, making it an attractive buy opportunity for investors ahead of fiscal fourth-quarter results.
BABA’s P/E F12M Ratio Depicts Discounted Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
Alibaba presents a compelling buy opportunity ahead of fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, with shares trading at a significant discount despite robust growth catalysts. The company's RMB 380 billion investment in AI and cloud infrastructure positions it at the forefront of technology innovation, while strategic partnerships with BMW, Honor, and Zeekr extend its AI ecosystem beyond traditional boundaries. Cloud revenue continues accelerating with AI-related products maintaining triple-digit growth for six consecutive quarters. Alibaba's international e-commerce segment approaches profitability, diversifying revenue streams. The launch of cutting-edge models like QWQ-32B and the record-breaking performance of PolarDB demonstrate technological leadership. Despite intense competition, Alibaba's discounted valuation fails to reflect its dominant market position and exceptional growth trajectory in the booming AI and cloud sectors.
Conclusion
Alibaba presents a rare opportunity at current valuations, with its aggressive AI investments and expanding global cloud footprint positioned to drive substantial growth. The company's triple-digit AI revenue growth, strategic partnerships, and breakthrough technological achievements create multiple catalysts ahead of furth-quarter results. As international e-commerce approaches profitability and cloud infrastructure scales, investors should act now before the market fully recognizes Alibaba's transformative potential in the AI era.
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Should You Add Alibaba Stock to Your Portfolio Ahead of Q4 Earnings?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 15.
For the fiscal fourth quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $33.08 billion, suggesting a 7.64% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at $1.48 per share, indicating an increase of 5.71% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Alibaba has a mixed earnings surprise history. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 4.87%. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the same twice, the average surprise being 1.47%.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited Price and EPS Surprise
Alibaba Group Holding Limited price-eps-surprise | Alibaba Group Holding Limited Quote
Earnings Whispers for BABA
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Alibaba this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
BABA has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors to Note for BABA Ahead of Q4 Results
Alibaba is expected to deliver robust results in its upcoming fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, building on the strong momentum from its impressive third-quarter performance. Investors should consider positioning themselves ahead of what appears to be another strong quarter, driven by accelerating AI initiatives and cloud computing growth.
The company's strategic focus on "user first, AI-driven" strategies has already demonstrated substantial progress, with customer management revenues at Taobao and Tmall growing 9% in the third quarter, while Cloud revenue growth reignited to double digits at 13%, with AI-related product revenues achieving triple-digit growth for the sixth consecutive quarter.
The fourth quarter witnessed Alibaba making several significant moves that are likely to have positively impacted upcoming results. The company unveiled an unprecedented RMB 380 billion ($53 billion) investment over the next three years in cloud computing and AI infrastructure — an amount exceeding Alibaba's total AI and cloud spending over the past decade. This bold commitment signals the company's determination to maintain its leadership in the global AI race.
Alibaba Cloud continued its global expansion with new cloud regions in Mexico and Thailand, enhancing its international presence to 87 availability zones across 29 regions. These strategic expansions position the company to capture growing cloud computing demand in emerging markets while diversifying its revenue streams beyond China.
The company's PolarDB achieved a groundbreaking world record in the TPC-C benchmark, processing 2.055 billion transactions per minute while reducing cost per transaction by almost 40%. This technological advancement showcases Alibaba's capability to deliver superior performance at lower costs, potentially attracting more enterprise clients to its cloud platform.
Alibaba's AI innovation maintained impressive momentum with its QWQ-32B model topping popularity charts on Hugging Face with more than 80,000 downloads in just one week. Meanwhile, strategic partnerships with BMW, Honor, and Zeekr are expanding Alibaba's AI reach into automobiles and smartphones, creating new revenue opportunities beyond traditional cloud services.
The company's international e-commerce business continued showing strength, with management expecting AIDC to achieve its first quarter of profitability in the next fiscal year. This progress toward profitability in international markets should boost investor confidence in Alibaba's global growth strategy.
With BABA trading at compelling valuations relative to its growth prospects and AI leadership, the upcoming earnings report presents an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to China's technology sector and the booming global AI market.
(See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
BABA Price Performance & Stock Valuation
Alibaba shares have surged 56.3% in the year-to-date period, outperforming the industry, the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 index’s decline of 3%, 1.4% and 4.4%, respectively.
BABA faces tough competition from Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , JD.com (JD - Free Report) and PDD Holdings (PDD - Free Report) among others. While JD and PDD have gained 4% and 20%, respectively, in the year-to-date period, AMZN has lost 4.9%.
Year-to-date Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
It is also important to consider whether the stock's current valuation accurately reflects the company's long-term growth potential and ability to navigate the competitive landscape. Currently, BABA is trading at a discount with a forward 12-month P/E of 11.91X compared with the industry’s 21.24X, making it an attractive buy opportunity for investors ahead of fiscal fourth-quarter results.
BABA’s P/E F12M Ratio Depicts Discounted Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
Alibaba presents a compelling buy opportunity ahead of fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, with shares trading at a significant discount despite robust growth catalysts. The company's RMB 380 billion investment in AI and cloud infrastructure positions it at the forefront of technology innovation, while strategic partnerships with BMW, Honor, and Zeekr extend its AI ecosystem beyond traditional boundaries. Cloud revenue continues accelerating with AI-related products maintaining triple-digit growth for six consecutive quarters. Alibaba's international e-commerce segment approaches profitability, diversifying revenue streams. The launch of cutting-edge models like QWQ-32B and the record-breaking performance of PolarDB demonstrate technological leadership. Despite intense competition, Alibaba's discounted valuation fails to reflect its dominant market position and exceptional growth trajectory in the booming AI and cloud sectors.
Conclusion
Alibaba presents a rare opportunity at current valuations, with its aggressive AI investments and expanding global cloud footprint positioned to drive substantial growth. The company's triple-digit AI revenue growth, strategic partnerships, and breakthrough technological achievements create multiple catalysts ahead of furth-quarter results. As international e-commerce approaches profitability and cloud infrastructure scales, investors should act now before the market fully recognizes Alibaba's transformative potential in the AI era.