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Procter & Gamble Stock Slips 5% in a Month: Buy the Dip or Stay Wary?

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The Procter & Gamble Company (PG - Free Report) , also known as P&G, has displayed a slowdown in the share price performance in the past month, with its stock falling as much as 4.8%. The PG stock’s dismal performance on the bourses is attributed to the company’s soft sales performance in third-quarter fiscal 2025, followed by management’s cautious near-term outlook based on the ongoing market conditions, including a volatile consumer and geopolitical landscape.

The company’s dismal share performance caused it to underperform the broader sector and the S&P 500 index, while it outpaced the Consumer Products - Staples industry. The Consumer Staples sector has declined 3.5% in the past month, but the S&P 500 has rallied 11.4%. Meanwhile, the broader industry has fallen 6% in the past month.

PG’s performance is notably weaker than that of its competitors, The Clorox Company (CLX - Free Report) and Unilever Plc (UL - Free Report) , which declined 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively, in the past month. The P&G stock has also lagged Albertsons Companies’ (ACI - Free Report) growth of 0.9% in the same period.

P&G's One-Month Price Performance

 

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Shares of this Cincinnati, OH-based consumer goods company reached a new 52-week low mark after reporting soft third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on April 24. The current share price of $162.41 reflects a 3.7% premium to its recent 52-week low mark of $156.58. Also, the PG stock reflects a 10% premium from its 52-week high of $180.43.

PG is trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish sentiment at least for the near term. SMA is an essential tool in technical analysis that helps investors evaluate price trends by smoothing out short-term fluctuations. This approach provides a clearer perspective on a stock's long-term direction.

P&G Stock Trades Below 50 & 200-Day Moving Averages

 

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What Keeps Investors Skeptical About PG?

The recent price action mainly follows a mixed performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, highlighted by a 2% decline in sales and modest 1% growth in earnings per share (EPS). The top-line decline was primarily led by weak performances in the Baby, Feminine & Family Care, and Fabric & Home Care segments due to lower volumes and unfavorable currency impacts.

Investor sentiment has been further dampened by management’s cautious near-term outlook, citing ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, volatile consumer behavior and geopolitical uncertainties, all of which have weighed on the stock’s momentum.

Procter & Gamble has revised its fiscal 2025 outlook downward, trimming both sales and earnings guidance. The company expects all-in sales to be flat year over year, while organic sales are projected to grow 2%. This marks a downgrade from its previous forecast of 2-4% all-in sales growth and 3-5% organic sales growth.

On the earnings front, P&G anticipates net EPS to rise 6-8% from the fiscal 2024 reported level of $6.02. Core EPS is expected between $6.72 and $6.82, indicating a 2-4% increase over the prior year’s $6.59. This compares unfavorably with the company’s earlier projection of 10-12% GAAP EPS growth and 5-7% core EPS growth for fiscal 2025.

P&G continues to face cost pressures, including an estimated $200-million after-tax headwind from commodity costs and another $200 million from unfavorable foreign exchange rates, impacting earnings by 16 cents per share. Additionally, the company anticipates a slight drag from net interest income and expenses, while its core effective tax rate is expected to be in line with the prior year.

PG’s Estimate Revision Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PG’s fiscal 2025 and 2026 EPS moved down in the last 30 days, indicating negative sentiment among analysts for the company's earnings. Analysts seem less confident about P&G’s prospects following the soft outlook. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 and 2026 EPS has moved down 1.6% and 4.2%, respectively, in the past 30 days. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

For fiscal 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PG’s sales and EPS implies 0.2% and 2.9% year-over-year growth, respectively. The consensus mark for fiscal 2026 sales and earnings indicates growth of 2.6% and 3.2% year-over-year, respectively.

 

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PG’s Premium Valuation

Procter & Gamble undoubtedly commands a high valuation, reflecting its strong market positioning, brand power and long-term growth potential compared with its peers. However, we believe that its valuation is too stretched at this time.

PG trades at a significant premium to industry peers with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 23.32X. The current valuation is below its five-year high of 26.67X and ahead of the broader industry’s multiple of 20.48X.

At 23.32X P/E, Procter & Gamble is trading at a valuation much higher than its competitors. Its competitors, such as Clorox and Keurig, are trading at lower multiples. Clorox, Unilever and Albertsons Companies have forward 12-month P/E ratios of 19.85X, 18.32X and 10.1X — all significantly higher than Procter & Gamble.

 

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How to Play PG?

Procter & Gamble’s extensive global footprint and well-diversified brand portfolio provide a solid foundation for long-term revenue stability. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations and market-specific challenges, particularly in Greater China, pose notable headwinds.

PG’s premium valuation relative to peers raises questions about sustainability, especially in a competitive and uncertain economic environment. Investors should carefully consider these risks and make decisions based on their risk tolerance. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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