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JPM vs. MS: Which Wall Street Titan Deserves a Spot in Your Portfolio?

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When it comes to Wall Street heavyweights, few names command more influence than JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) . These financial titans are pillars of global finance, with deep roots in the investment banking (IB) industry, advising on multibillion-dollar mergers, underwriting high-profile IPOs and navigating complex capital markets.

Per a research report published by Spherical Insights & Consulting, the global IB market is expected to grow from $170 billion in 2023 to $394.2 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 8.8% (2023-2033). As such, JPM and MS are likely to benefit from the growth opportunity highlighted by the robust pace of growth. 

While the long-term outlook for IB remains strong, near-term momentum has cooled.  The year 2025 started with optimism amid expectations of a business-friendly Trump administration and regulatory rollbacks. However, proposed tariffs soon triggered market volatility and concerns over economic slowdown and inflation. As a result, the anticipated mergers & acquisitions (M&A) rebound is now expected to materialize in the second half of the year.

Against such a backdrop, the question arises: Which IB powerhouse – JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley – offers the better upside potential for investors now?

The Case for JPMorgan

JPMorgan, while more diversified across banking and lending, remains a dominant force in the IB business, ranking #1 for global IB fees. In 2024, the company’s total IB fees soared 37% to $8.91 billion after declining 3% in 2023 and 49% in 2022. 

Despite tariff-related ambiguity and extreme market volatility, momentum persisted in the first quarter of 2025, with JPMorgan having a wallet share of 9%. In the quarter, IB fees grew 12% year over year to $2.18 billion, driven by the rise in advisory fees and debt underwriting income.

While the near-term prospects are cloudy due to market turmoil and ambiguity over monetary policy, JPMorgan expects a rebound once market uncertainty subsides. Jeremy Barnum, JPM’s chief financial officer, during the first quarter earnings conference call, said, “In light of market conditions, we are adopting a cautious stance on the investment banking outlook. While client engagement and dialogue is quite elevated, both the conversion of the existing pipeline and origination of new activity will require a reduction in the current levels of uncertainty.”

Despite these challenges, JPMorgan’s long-term outlook for the IB business remains strong as it leverages its leadership position in the business. Our estimates for IB fees suggest a CAGR of 2.8% by 2027.

Apart from the IB business, JPM (the largest bank in the United States) has a presence across all sectors of the financial services. The company’s major portion of revenues comes from net interest income (accounting for almost 50% of total revenues).

The Case for Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley has leaned heavily into the IB business, though it has been diversifying into more stable revenue-generating sources like asset and wealth management businesses, creating a more balanced revenue stream across market cycles. Similar to JPM, the company’s IB revenues surged 36% last year to $6.71 billion after plunging 12% and 49% in 2023 and 2022, respectively.

The uptrend in Morgan Stanley’s IB revenues continued this year, with the first-quarter 2025 number growing 8% from the prior-year quarter. Like JPM, the primary reasons for the quarterly increase were higher advisory and debt underwriting income. 

MS remains cautiously optimistic about the performance of the IB business this year, supported by a stable and diversified M&A pipeline. On the first-quarter conference call, chief financial officer Shraon Yeshaya said, “While tariff announcements and subsequent market volatility have disrupted near-term deal activity, our pipelines have not meaningfully changed since the beginning of the year and remain robust.”

Hence, once the macroeconomic uncertainty eases, Morgan Stanley will be able to capitalize on it. We project IB fees to reflect a CAGR of 5% by 2027.

As mentioned above, MS is focusing on expanding its wealth and asset management operations, which have supported its financials during the post-pandemic slowdown in the IB business. Both businesses’ aggregate contribution to total net revenues jumped to more than 55% in 2024 from 26% in 2010.

JPM & MS: Price Performance, Valuation & Other Comparisons

While 2025 started on a very positive note, Trump’s tariff plans and resultant massive market volatility upended bullish investor sentiments. So far this year, shares of JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley gained 11.6% and 5.4%, respectively. 

JPM & MS YTD Price Performance
 

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JPM has outpaced the Zacks Investment Bank industry and the S&P 500 Index. On the other hand, MS has outperformed the broader index while lagging the industry. Hence, in terms of investor sentiments, JPMorgan clearly has the edge.

In terms of valuation, JPMorgan is currently trading at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 14.36X, higher than its five-year median of 12.23X. The MS stock, on the other hand, is currently trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 15.00X, which is higher than its five-year median of 12.96X.

P/E F12M
 

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Further, JPM and Morgan Stanley are trading at a premium compared with the industry average of 13.75X. Therefore, JPMorgan is inexpensive compared to Morgan Stanley.

JPM’s dividend yield of 2.09% is lower than Morgan Stanley’s 2.79%. Nonetheless, both are higher than the S&P 500 average dividend yield of 1.54%.

Dividend Yield
 

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Further, JPMorgan’s return on equity (ROE) of 16.88% is above Morgan Stanley’s 14.98%. Also, both outscore the industry’s ROE of 13.88%. This reflects JPM’s efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits.

ROE
 

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How Do Estimates Compare for JPM & MS?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM’s 2025 revenues reflects a year-over-year decline of 1.5%, while for 2026, revenues are expected to grow 1.9%. Likewise, the consensus estimate for 2025 earnings indicates a 7.3% fall, while the same is anticipated to rise 4.6% for 2026. Earnings estimates for both years have remained unchanged over the past week.

Estimate Revision
 

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On the contrary, analysts are more bullish on Morgan Stanley’s prospects. The consensus mark for 2025 and 2026 revenues suggests a year-over-year jump of 5.4% and 4%, respectively. Also, the consensus estimate for earnings suggests a 7.9% and 8.1% increase for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Earnings estimates for both years have remained unchanged over the past seven days.

Estimate Revision
 

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JPM or MS: Which Stock is a Better Investment Option?

JPMorgan offers stability and leadership in IB, complemented by its diversified revenue streams, strong ROE and solid price performance. Its cautious but optimistic outlook, coupled with a lower valuation multiple than Morgan Stanley, makes it an attractive option for risk-averse investors seeking resilience amid uncertainty.

However, Morgan Stanley presents stronger upside potential with higher projected revenue and earnings growth, fueled by its robust IB pipeline and growing wealth and asset management business. Despite its higher valuation, the company’s strategic diversification and better dividend yield make it appealing for growth-oriented investors with a longer time horizon.

At present, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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