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Moody's Downgrades U.S. Rating: What's Next for S&P 500 ETFs?
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Moody’s Investors downgraded the United States’ sovereign credit rating by one notch from Aaa to Aa1, citing escalating deficits and the increasing burden of refinancing debt amid elevated interest rates. The downgrade reflects concerns around the ballooning U.S. debt. As such, it could dampen the appetite for U.S. assets, including equities, and raise yields at a time when the economy is already under pressure from President Donald Trump’s unfolding tariff policy.
The move came after last week’s bullish run for U.S. stocks buoyed a temporary U.S.-China trade truce. The S&P 500 erased all its losses and turned green for 2025 by rallying more than 5%, while the Dow Jones climbed by more than 3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index surged more than 7% last week (read: S&P 500 Makes the Fastest Recovery Since 1982: 5 Best ETFs).
The three ultra-popular ETFs tracking the index — Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO - Free Report) , SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - Free Report) and iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV - Free Report) — are up about 1.7% each so far this year. Will the strong trend continue? Let’s delve deeper:
Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Rating
Moody’s downgraded the rating, citing rising national debt, increasing interest payments and political polarization. The agency noted that the fiscal proposals currently under discussion are unlikely to deliver a sustained, multi-year reduction in deficits. The agency projects that the federal debt burden will rise to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from an estimated 98% in 2024.
Meanwhile, interest payments on the national debt are expected to consume a larger share of federal revenues, with projections indicating a rise to 10% by 2025. Moody’s also highlighted the U.S.'s complex budget and debt limit processes, which have become increasingly mired in political partisanship, eroding confidence in fiscal management
Moody’s had maintained the United States’ top-tier “Aaa” rating since 1919 and was the last of the three major credit rating agencies to downgrade it. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch downgraded the United States in 2011 and 2023, respectively.
Following the downgrade, U.S. stock-index futures, including the S&P 500, declined by around 1% or more. The U.S. dollar weakened, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.52%, indicating investor anxiety.
U.S-Trade Deal
The United States has agreed to temporarily slash tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will lower its retaliatory duties on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. The temporary reduction in rates will run for 90 days. The deal has infused a strong air of optimism into the technology sector, which is the largest beneficiary (read: 5 Technology Stocks Powering S&P 500 ETF).
Analysts Turn Bullish
Wall Street strategists have turned increasingly bullish on the S&P 500 outlook for the year after the U.S.-China deal. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,100 from 5,900. Yardeni Research also lifted its forecast to 6,500 from 6,000, implying an additional 11% gain from current levels. Both firms cited easing concerns over a major economic slowdown as a key driver behind their optimism.
Inflation and Jobs Data Boost Sentiment
April inflation and jobs data added another reason to cheer. U.S. inflation in April cooled to the lowest level since February 2021. The Consumer Price Index, which tracks a variety of costs throughout the economy, rose 2.3% year over year in April, down slightly from 2.4% in March. The softer-than-expected data bolstered the case for the easing by the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, April jobs data showed that the U.S. labor market remained resilient amid the tariff chaos. The economy added better-than-expected 177,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, providing further assurance about the economy's health (read: Growth ETFs Outperform Amid Historic Market Comeback).
Consumer Confidence Slip
U.S. consumer sentiment fell for the fifth consecutive month in May, reflecting Americans' increasing worry that President Donald Trump’s trade war will worsen inflation. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined 2.7%, on a monthly basis, to 50.8, the lowest level since June 2022. Since January, sentiment has tumbled nearly 30%.
Bottom Line
While the downgrade could trigger a pullback or consolidation following recent strong gains, deal optimism and an improving economy still call for further upside. However, volatility may persist given uncertainties around trade policies.
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Moody's Downgrades U.S. Rating: What's Next for S&P 500 ETFs?
Moody’s Investors downgraded the United States’ sovereign credit rating by one notch from Aaa to Aa1, citing escalating deficits and the increasing burden of refinancing debt amid elevated interest rates. The downgrade reflects concerns around the ballooning U.S. debt. As such, it could dampen the appetite for U.S. assets, including equities, and raise yields at a time when the economy is already under pressure from President Donald Trump’s unfolding tariff policy.
The move came after last week’s bullish run for U.S. stocks buoyed a temporary U.S.-China trade truce. The S&P 500 erased all its losses and turned green for 2025 by rallying more than 5%, while the Dow Jones climbed by more than 3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index surged more than 7% last week (read: S&P 500 Makes the Fastest Recovery Since 1982: 5 Best ETFs).
The three ultra-popular ETFs tracking the index — Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO - Free Report) , SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - Free Report) and iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV - Free Report) — are up about 1.7% each so far this year. Will the strong trend continue? Let’s delve deeper:
Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Rating
Moody’s downgraded the rating, citing rising national debt, increasing interest payments and political polarization. The agency noted that the fiscal proposals currently under discussion are unlikely to deliver a sustained, multi-year reduction in deficits. The agency projects that the federal debt burden will rise to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from an estimated 98% in 2024.
Meanwhile, interest payments on the national debt are expected to consume a larger share of federal revenues, with projections indicating a rise to 10% by 2025. Moody’s also highlighted the U.S.'s complex budget and debt limit processes, which have become increasingly mired in political partisanship, eroding confidence in fiscal management
Moody’s had maintained the United States’ top-tier “Aaa” rating since 1919 and was the last of the three major credit rating agencies to downgrade it. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch downgraded the United States in 2011 and 2023, respectively.
Following the downgrade, U.S. stock-index futures, including the S&P 500, declined by around 1% or more. The U.S. dollar weakened, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.52%, indicating investor anxiety.
U.S-Trade Deal
The United States has agreed to temporarily slash tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will lower its retaliatory duties on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. The temporary reduction in rates will run for 90 days. The deal has infused a strong air of optimism into the technology sector, which is the largest beneficiary (read: 5 Technology Stocks Powering S&P 500 ETF).
Analysts Turn Bullish
Wall Street strategists have turned increasingly bullish on the S&P 500 outlook for the year after the U.S.-China deal. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,100 from 5,900. Yardeni Research also lifted its forecast to 6,500 from 6,000, implying an additional 11% gain from current levels. Both firms cited easing concerns over a major economic slowdown as a key driver behind their optimism.
Inflation and Jobs Data Boost Sentiment
April inflation and jobs data added another reason to cheer. U.S. inflation in April cooled to the lowest level since February 2021. The Consumer Price Index, which tracks a variety of costs throughout the economy, rose 2.3% year over year in April, down slightly from 2.4% in March. The softer-than-expected data bolstered the case for the easing by the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, April jobs data showed that the U.S. labor market remained resilient amid the tariff chaos. The economy added better-than-expected 177,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, providing further assurance about the economy's health (read: Growth ETFs Outperform Amid Historic Market Comeback).
Consumer Confidence Slip
U.S. consumer sentiment fell for the fifth consecutive month in May, reflecting Americans' increasing worry that President Donald Trump’s trade war will worsen inflation. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined 2.7%, on a monthly basis, to 50.8, the lowest level since June 2022. Since January, sentiment has tumbled nearly 30%.
Bottom Line
While the downgrade could trigger a pullback or consolidation following recent strong gains, deal optimism and an improving economy still call for further upside. However, volatility may persist given uncertainties around trade policies.