What should we expect from this Global Week Ahead?

Investors are relieved.

The U.S. and Mainland China paused their damaging trade war.

Stocks are rallying.

U.S. shelves may not be empty at Christmas, after all.

But trade tensions have not disappeared.

They have merely receded.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) Big-box U.S. retailers will wrap up what has been a solid Q2 earnings season.

Major U.S. retailers' earnings will be in focus, after industry bellwether Walmart (WMT Quick QuoteWMT - Free Report) , warned it would start raising prices because of tariffs.

As first-quarter earnings season winds down, Home Depot (HD Quick QuoteHD - Free Report) , Target (TGT Quick QuoteTGT - Free Report) , Lowe's (LOW Quick QuoteLOW - Free Report) , and TJX Cos (TJX Quick QuoteTJX - Free Report) , are among those reporting.

Investors hope the companies will shed more light on the impact from sweeping tariffs on consumer spending and any other trade-related fallout.

Data on Thursday showed U.S. Retail Sales growth slowed in April, as the boost from households front-loading motor vehicle purchases ahead of tariffs faded and households pulled back on other spending.

Overall, U.S. corporate profit numbers have topped expectations.

About 90% of S&P500 companies have reported, with earnings set to have climbed +14% from the year-ago period, up from an estimate of +8% on April 1st, according to LSEG IBES.
 

(2) G7 Finance Ministers gather together, from May 20th to May 22nd in Canada.

Markets have (mostly) ignored G7 meetings for years.

The May 20th – 22nd gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors from the seven big Western economies in the Canadian mountain town of Banff might change that.

First, the tension is palpable, given U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy and growing signs of U.S. isolationism.

And Trump wants Canada to become the 51st U.S. state, a suggestion that has angered the G7 host, Canada.

Also, watch currencies.

In addition to the volatility from tariff uncertainty, there's speculation that some will tolerate the strength of their own currencies against the dollar as part of trade negotiations.

Taiwan's dollar has surged, South Korea and the U.S. have discussed foreign exchange, and Japan also wants to talk currencies.

Meanwhile, the next U.S. Treasury currency manipulator report, which could add extra spice to the meeting, is due any day.
 

(3) Signals from Mainland China now look much more positive.

Investors know not to take anything for granted, but signals from China following the 90-day tariff truce have all been pointing in a positive direction.

China's rare earths — a critical component for high-tech applications from electric vehicle (EV) motors and smartphones to missile guidance systems — are flowing again. It has also paused some non-tariff barriers on U.S. entities.

Washington has also ceded, pulling duties on small packages back to as low as 30%, in a lifeline for Shein and China's other fast-fashion giants.

Both sides are now less worried about hyper-inflated Barbie prices in the U.S. this Christmas, as the piles of dolls — and other goods — currently piled up in Chinese warehouses will start to shift.

Exports have been the bright spot for China's economy. Monday's retail sales and factory output data will provide some guidance on the health of the domestic economy.
 

(4) The European Union (EU) & the United Kingdom (UK) hold a Monday summit.

Investors anticipate that a UK-EU summit on Monday, May 19th will lead to a resetting of Britain's relationship with its biggest trading partner.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, of the Labour party, has lambasted the previous Conservative government's "botched" Brexit deal and wants to remove trade barriers to boost Britain's sluggish economy.

Purchasing managers' indices, next due on May 22, have signaled that the dominant services sector is contracting sharply.

Consumer price data due on May 21 may also show Britain's tight, opens new tab labour market has kept inflation too high for the Bank of England to rapidly cut rates.

For Starmer, however, the political risks of renewing EU links might outweigh the potential economic gains, as he grapples with surging support for the eurosceptic Reform Party.
 

(5) Romania closes up its long Presidential election effort.

Romania holds the deciding round of its presidential election on Sunday.

The stakes are sky-high.

A win for hard-right front-runner George Simion against reformist Nicursor Dan would mean more trouble for the currency, after the first round triggered its biggest fall in 15 years, and drove speculation about a loss of the country's investment grade status.

There are growing worries of an even deeper political crisis and that much-needed fiscal consolidation won't happen, or at least not quickly enough to avoid a disgruntled European Commission cutting off Bucharest's vital EU funding.

Dan hasn't really proposed a credible solution to the key concerns, but analysts warn that if the euro-skeptic nationalist Simion wins but fails to form a government, and the E.U. then turns the taps off, the leu could find itself as much as 20% weaker.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

This week, I picked a large-cap Dutch grocery chain, a Canadian insurance group, and a Spanish Tech Services firm.

Share trading opportunities can indeed be found outside the USA.

(1) Ahold (ADRNY Quick QuoteADRNY - Free Report) : This is a $40 a share stock with a market cap of $36.9B. It is found in the Consumer Products-Staples Grocery industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.???

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. provides retail stores which offer food and non-food products primarily in the United States and Europe.

The company operates supermarkets, convenience stores, compact hypers, pick-up points and gasoline stations as well as specialty stores.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V., formerly known as Ahold N.V., is based in Zaandam, Netherlands.

(2) Fairfax Financial (FRFHF Quick QuoteFRFHF - Free Report) : This is a $1,596 a share stock with a market cap of $35.9B. It is found in the Insurance-Property and Casualty industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited is a financial services holding company which, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in property, casualty and life insurance and reinsurance, investment management and insurance claims management.

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

(3) Amadeus IT Group (AMADY Quick QuoteAMADY - Free Report) : This is a $80 a share stock with a market cap of $35.9B. It is found in the Business Services-Tech Services industry. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

Amadeus IT Group S.A. is a transaction processor for the travel and tourism industry through its subsidiaries.

The company's operating segment consists of Distribution and IT Solutions. It offers a network providing real-time search, pricing, booking and ticketing services.

Amadeus IT Group S.A., formerly known as Amadeus IT Holding, S.A., is based in Madrid, Spain.
 

Key Global Macro

This week, there are a number of preliminary flash manufacturing PMIs out for May.

On Monday, the NY Fed’s John Williams speaks.

U.S. leading economic indicators for April come out. I see a prior -0.7% print.

Mainland China’s retail sales for April come out. I see a prior +5.9% y/y March print.

The core HICP inflation rate for the Euro Area comes out for April. The consensus looks for the April +2.7% y/y data to stay in-line with the prior March +2.7% y/y print.

It is Victoria Day in Canada.

On Tuesday, there is a People’s Bank of China (PBoC) policy rate decision. The current loan policy rate is 3.1%.

There is also a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy rate decision. The current short-term policy rate there is 4.1%.

A number of Fed speakers are on tap: Bostic, Daly, Hammack, and Musalem.

On Wednesday, Australia’s Judo Bank manufacturing PMI for May comes out. I see a prior 51.7 print.

On Thursday, U.S. weekly initial jobless claims come out.

The Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for May comes out. The prior April print was 48.7.

The S&P flash manufacturing PMI comes out for May. I see a prior 50.2 April print.

The Euro Area HCOB manufacturing PMI for May comes out. I see a prior 49.0 print.

On Friday, U.S. new home sales come out for April. The prior March print was +724K.
 

Conclusion

On May 14th, 2025, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian offered up his latest earnings update.

Here are the key points:

(1) Total Q1-25 earnings for the 456 S&P 500 members that have reported results are up +12.1% from the same period last year on +4.5% higher revenues.

73.9% beat EPS estimates and 62.1% beat revenue estimates.

(2) We continue to believe that this earnings season was less about what companies earned in the first quarter of 2025 and more about sizing up the earnings impact of the evolving macroeconomic and public policy backdrop.

To that end, management commentary has largely been reassuring despite the uncertainty.

(3) Estimates for the current period (Q2-25) have been under pressure, with bigger declines in estimates compared to other recent post-COVID periods.

That said, estimates for the Tech sector have notably stabilized lately.

(4) For Q2-25, total S&P500 earnings are expected to be up +5.9% from the same period last year on +3.8% higher revenues.

Q2-25 estimates have been steadily coming down, with the magnitude and breadth of negative estimate revisions -- greater than had been the case in the comparable periods of other recent quarters.

I wager that U.S. trade policy uncertainty has indeed started to bite, in a material way.

That’s it for me.

Enjoy this week, trading and investing.

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist