We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
CAT Stock Trades at Premium Value: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT - Free Report) is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.74X compared with the manufacturing - construction and mining industry average of 16.69X. With a Value Score of C, the CAT stock does not appear to be a compelling value proposition at these levels.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CAT’s Valuation vs. KMTUY, MTW & TEX
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Compared with peers, CAT appears relatively expensive. Komatsu (KMTUY - Free Report) , Terex Corporation (TEX - Free Report) and The Manitowoc Company (MTW - Free Report) are all currently trading below the industry at 10.41, 9.52 and 15.78, respectively.
Caterpillar’s premium valuation raises concern in light of its declining revenues amid weak volume trends. Its forecast for flat or lower revenues in 2025 further dampens enthusiasm.
CAT shares have lost 3.9% so far this year compared with the industry’s 2.9% decline. In comparison, the Zacks Industrial Products sector and the S&P 500 have fallen 2.6% and 0.3%, respectively, in the same period.
Declining Sales Volumes & Revenues Trends: CAT has reported six straight quarters of volume declines, reflecting muted consumer spending. The impacts have been more pronounced in its two major segments — Resource Industries (down in the last seven quarters) and Construction Industries (down in six quarters). The Energy and Transportation segment saw volume declines in three of the trailing four quarters.
As a result, Caterpillar's revenues have been declining for the past five quarters, while earnings declined in the last three.
CAT’s performance has been impacted by the downturn in China's real estate sector. The demand for 10-ton and larger excavators, once a key market for CAT, has weakened significantly.
Flat or Slight Decline in 2025 Revenues: Excluding tariffs, Caterpillar expects revenues in 2025 to be flat compared with that reported in 2024, and the adjusted operating profit margin is likely to be in the top half of its target range. Including tariffs, revenues are anticipated to decline slightly year over year, and the adjusted operating profit margin is expected within its target range.
The company maintains its broad spectrum of revenues, ranging from $42 billion to $72 billion. According to the revenue levels, margins are expected to be between 10% and 22%.
The Energy and Transportation segment is anticipated to offset weaker results in the Construction Industries and Resource Industries segments. While high labor costs and potential tariffs remain risks, Caterpillar’s pricing and cost-control initiatives should help cushion the impacts. CAT has a significant production base in the United States, which will give it a competitive advantage over companies reliant on imports.
Slowdown in Industry Order Levels: The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index remained in contraction territory for 26 straight months through December 2024. Although the index briefly returned to expansion in January (50.9%) and February (50.3%), the rebound proved short-lived. In March, the index slipped back into contraction with a reading of 49%, followed by another decline to 48.7% in April.
The New Orders Index also declined in April, registering 47.2%, marking its third consecutive month of contraction after briefly expanding in the prior three months. Notably, the index has failed to sustain consistent growth since the end of its 24-month expansion streak in May 2022. The Production Index also contracted in April to 44%. Customers had been pulling in orders due to anxiety about continued tariffs and pricing pressures. With the easing tariff concerns now, the scenario may improve.
Notably, Joseph Creed replaced James Umpleby as CEO on May 1. Creed’s ability to navigate CAT through the current challenges will be closely watched.
Downward Estimate Revision Activity for CAT
Earnings estimates for Caterpillar for both 2025 and 2026 have moved down over the past 60 days. (Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAT’s 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 14.5%. The consensus mark for revenues suggests a drop of 2.4%. However, earnings estimates for 2026 suggest 12.7% growth, with revenues rising 4.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Long-Term Fundamentals Intact for Caterpillar
Looking ahead, CAT stands to benefit from the surge in projects, driven by the United States Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The shift toward clean energy will drive the demand for essential commodities, boosting the need for Caterpillar’s mining equipment. Meanwhile, given their efficiency and safety, CAT’s autonomous fleets are gaining momentum among miners.
As technology companies establish data centers globally to support their generative AI applications, Caterpillar is witnessing robust order levels for reciprocating engines for data centers. The company is planning to double its output with a multi-year capital investment. CAT’s efforts to grow its aftermarket parts and service-related revenues, which generate high margins, will also aid growth.
CAT Offers Attractive Dividend Yield & Returns
Caterpillar’s 1.61% dividend yield is higher than the sector’s yield of 1.48% and the S&P 500’s 1.26%. The company has a five-year dividend growth rate of 7.7% and a payout ratio of around 27%. CAT has a solid track of paying out higher dividends to shareholders for 30 straight years.
Caterpillar’s return on equity (ROE) is 53.77%, higher than the sector’s average of 20.41% and the S&P 500’s 32%. Meanwhile, Komatsu offers a ROE of 13.56%, and Terex’s ROE is 18.8%. Manitowoc lags considerably with a ROE of 0.63%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Final Take on Caterpillar’s Stock
CAT’s premium valuation, combined with persistent revenue and earnings declines amid broader industry challenges, suggests caution for new investors. With a new CEO at the helm, market attention will be focused on how he navigates the company through this rough patch.
Existing shareholders should stay invested in Caterpillar’s stock to benefit from its solid long-term demand prospects, backed by infrastructure spending and energy-transition trends, as well as its focus on growing service revenues. CAT’s strong financial position enables it to invest in its businesses and return cash to shareholders through share buybacks and consistent dividend payments.
Image: Bigstock
CAT Stock Trades at Premium Value: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell?
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT - Free Report) is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.74X compared with the manufacturing - construction and mining industry average of 16.69X. With a Value Score of C, the CAT stock does not appear to be a compelling value proposition at these levels.
CAT’s Valuation vs. KMTUY, MTW & TEX
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Compared with peers, CAT appears relatively expensive. Komatsu (KMTUY - Free Report) , Terex Corporation (TEX - Free Report) and The Manitowoc Company (MTW - Free Report) are all currently trading below the industry at 10.41, 9.52 and 15.78, respectively.
Caterpillar’s premium valuation raises concern in light of its declining revenues amid weak volume trends. Its forecast for flat or lower revenues in 2025 further dampens enthusiasm.
CAT shares have lost 3.9% so far this year compared with the industry’s 2.9% decline. In comparison, the Zacks Industrial Products sector and the S&P 500 have fallen 2.6% and 0.3%, respectively, in the same period.
Caterpillar Stock Underperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CAT’s performance also trails the year-to-date performances of Komatsu, Terex and Manitowoc, as shown in the chart below.
CAT’s YTD Price Performance vs. KMTUY, MTW & TEX
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Caterpillar Faces Weak Demand & Industry-Wide Slowdown
Declining Sales Volumes & Revenues Trends: CAT has reported six straight quarters of volume declines, reflecting muted consumer spending. The impacts have been more pronounced in its two major segments — Resource Industries (down in the last seven quarters) and Construction Industries (down in six quarters). The Energy and Transportation segment saw volume declines in three of the trailing four quarters.
As a result, Caterpillar's revenues have been declining for the past five quarters, while earnings declined in the last three.
CAT’s performance has been impacted by the downturn in China's real estate sector. The demand for 10-ton and larger excavators, once a key market for CAT, has weakened significantly.
Flat or Slight Decline in 2025 Revenues: Excluding tariffs, Caterpillar expects revenues in 2025 to be flat compared with that reported in 2024, and the adjusted operating profit margin is likely to be in the top half of its target range. Including tariffs, revenues are anticipated to decline slightly year over year, and the adjusted operating profit margin is expected within its target range.
The company maintains its broad spectrum of revenues, ranging from $42 billion to $72 billion. According to the revenue levels, margins are expected to be between 10% and 22%.
The Energy and Transportation segment is anticipated to offset weaker results in the Construction Industries and Resource Industries segments.
While high labor costs and potential tariffs remain risks, Caterpillar’s pricing and cost-control initiatives should help cushion the impacts. CAT has a significant production base in the United States, which will give it a competitive advantage over companies reliant on imports.
Slowdown in Industry Order Levels: The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index remained in contraction territory for 26 straight months through December 2024. Although the index briefly returned to expansion in January (50.9%) and February (50.3%), the rebound proved short-lived. In March, the index slipped back into contraction with a reading of 49%, followed by another decline to 48.7% in April.
The New Orders Index also declined in April, registering 47.2%, marking its third consecutive month of contraction after briefly expanding in the prior three months. Notably, the index has failed to sustain consistent growth since the end of its 24-month expansion streak in May 2022. The Production Index also contracted in April to 44%. Customers had been pulling in orders due to anxiety about continued tariffs and pricing pressures. With the easing tariff concerns now, the scenario may improve.
Notably, Joseph Creed replaced James Umpleby as CEO on May 1. Creed’s ability to navigate CAT through the current challenges will be closely watched.
Downward Estimate Revision Activity for CAT
Earnings estimates for Caterpillar for both 2025 and 2026 have moved down over the past 60 days. (Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAT’s 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 14.5%. The consensus mark for revenues suggests a drop of 2.4%. However, earnings estimates for 2026 suggest 12.7% growth, with revenues rising 4.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Long-Term Fundamentals Intact for Caterpillar
Looking ahead, CAT stands to benefit from the surge in projects, driven by the United States Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The shift toward clean energy will drive the demand for essential commodities, boosting the need for Caterpillar’s mining equipment. Meanwhile, given their efficiency and safety, CAT’s autonomous fleets are gaining momentum among miners.
As technology companies establish data centers globally to support their generative AI applications, Caterpillar is witnessing robust order levels for reciprocating engines for data centers. The company is planning to double its output with a multi-year capital investment. CAT’s efforts to grow its aftermarket parts and service-related revenues, which generate high margins, will also aid growth.
CAT Offers Attractive Dividend Yield & Returns
Caterpillar’s 1.61% dividend yield is higher than the sector’s yield of 1.48% and the S&P 500’s 1.26%. The company has a five-year dividend growth rate of 7.7% and a payout ratio of around 27%. CAT has a solid track of paying out higher dividends to shareholders for 30 straight years.
Caterpillar’s return on equity (ROE) is 53.77%, higher than the sector’s average of 20.41% and the S&P 500’s 32%. Meanwhile, Komatsu offers a ROE of 13.56%, and Terex’s ROE is 18.8%. Manitowoc lags considerably with a ROE of 0.63%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Final Take on Caterpillar’s Stock
CAT’s premium valuation, combined with persistent revenue and earnings declines amid broader industry challenges, suggests caution for new investors. With a new CEO at the helm, market attention will be focused on how he navigates the company through this rough patch.
Existing shareholders should stay invested in Caterpillar’s stock to benefit from its solid long-term demand prospects, backed by infrastructure spending and energy-transition trends, as well as its focus on growing service revenues. CAT’s strong financial position enables it to invest in its businesses and return cash to shareholders through share buybacks and consistent dividend payments.
The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which supports our thesis. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.