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Ollie's Bargain Q1 Earnings on Deck: Key Trends Investors Should Track

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Key Takeaways

  • OLLI is expected to report Q1 revenues of $564.7M, up 11% year over year.
  • OLLI's earnings per share are projected at $0.70, marking a 4.1% decline from the prior year.
  • Strong loyalty growth, store expansion and vendor ties fuel sales, but rising costs may hurt OLLI's margins.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI - Free Report) is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on June 3, before the opening bell. OLLI is likely to have registered an increase in the top line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $564.7 million, which indicates an improvement of 11% from the prior-year reported figure.

However, the extreme-value retailer of brand-name merchandise is expected to have witnessed a year-over-year decrease in its bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has remained steady at 70 cents over the past 30 days, which implies a year-over-year decrease of 4.1%.
 
Ollie's Bargain has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.3%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Harrisburg, PA-based company’s bottom line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 0.8%. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

Key Factors Driving OLLI’s Q1 Performance

Ollie’s Bargain’s business model of "buying cheap and selling cheap," along with its cost-containment efforts, focus on store productivity and the expansion of its customer loyalty program, Ollie’s Army, is likely to have contributed to strong top-line performance. Ollie's Army continued to be a major sales driver, with membership increasing continuously. The company ended the final quarter of fiscal 2024 with more than 15.1 million active Ollie's Army members, accounting for more than 80% of sales. 

The company's strong performance is also driven by its appeal to a wide customer base, offering a diverse range of products at attractive prices. The company’s solid vendor relationships further strengthen its position in the market. We expect comparable store sales growth of 1% for the first quarter.

Moreover, Ollie’s ongoing store expansion strategy continues to drive incremental revenues by broadening its reach to new markets. The company, on its last earnings call, highlighted its plan to open 21 stores in the first quarter. Ollie’s ability to open new stores successfully, including the former “99 Cents Only” stores and Big Lots locations, showcases the scalability and potential of its business model. 

However, Ollie’s first-quarter earnings are likely to have declined due to elevated pre-opening and dark rent expenses associated with aggressive expansion, as well as rising SG&A costs. A sluggish start to the quarter, coupled with tough year-over-year comparisons, is expected to have limited same-store sales growth. We anticipate a contraction of 160 basis points in the operating margin for the first quarter.

What Zacks Model Predicts About OLLI

As investors prepare for Ollie’s first-quarter announcement, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Ollie’s this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ollie’s has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +4.29%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three more companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Dollar General Corporation (DG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.64% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $1.47, implying a 10.9% year-over-year decline. 

Dollar General’s top line is expected to have risen year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $10.29 billion, which indicates an increase of 3.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. DG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.2%, on average.

Dollar Tree (DLTR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.49% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. DLTR’s top line is anticipated to decline year over year when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.54 billion, which suggests a 40.5% plunge from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register a decrease in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Dollar Tree’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.19 per share, down 16.8% from the year-ago quarter. 

J.Jill, Inc. (JILL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.71% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a decline in both top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J.Jill’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $156.7 million, which indicates a decrease of 3% from the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J.Jill’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 88 cents, which suggests a decline of 27.9% from the year-ago period. JILL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.9%, on average.

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