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Stitch Fix's Q3 Earnings on the Horizon: Key Insights for Investors

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Key Takeaways

  • Stitch Fix's third-quarter FY25 may reflect a challenging macroeconomic environment.
  • Weakened customer metrics are expected to weigh on the company's Q3 performance.
  • The company is likely to post a narrower Q3 FY25 loss, aided by cost efficiencies and strategy moves.

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX - Free Report) is expected to have registered a year-over-year decrease in its top line when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings tomorrow, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is currently pinned at $315.3 million, indicating a 2.3% drop from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s tally.

The company is likely to report a narrower-than-anticipated loss per share in the quarter under review. The consensus mark for quarterly loss per share is pegged at 12 cents, which has been stable in the past 30 days and is narrower than the year-earlier quarter’s loss per share of 15 cents. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

Stitch Fix delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 48.9%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 54.6%. Investors are closely monitoring for insights into the company's performance and strategic efforts. Let’s delve deeper.

Key Factors Influencing SFIX's Q3 Performance

A challenging macroeconomic backdrop, including headwinds like potential shifts in customer demand and tariff-related concerns, is likely to have hurt Stitch Fix’s quarterly performance. The company has been grappling with weaknesses in both customer acquisition and retention. Continued pressure on active clients, coupled with any deleveraged expenses, might have affected SFIX’s performance in the fiscal third quarter. In addition, competition from major retailers and economic pressures add challenges to the company’s growth.

In its last earnings call, management had projected revenues to be between $311 million and $316 million, indicating a 3.6-2.1% year-over-year decline. It had expected adjusted EBITDA to be $7-$10 million, with a margin of 2.3-3.2%. We expect active clients to decline 10.8% year over year in the fiscal third quarter.

On the positive side, Stitch Fix has been enriching customer experiences through AI-driven personalization and reimagining product assortments to better align with the evolving client preferences. SFIX’s Freestyle drive offering a distinct shopping experience is encouraging.

Management, in its last earnings call, cited that it has been monitoring the potential tariff impacts and increased macroeconomic volatility. The company remains focused on continued cost efficiencies, which is likely to have contributed to improved profitability. SFIX had forecast gross margin between 44% and 45% for the fiscal third quarter, benefiting from better product margins. We anticipate the gross margin to increase 90 basis points year over year to 44.5% in the fiscal third quarter.

Stitch Fix, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Stitch Fix, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Stitch Fix, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Stitch Fix, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Say for Stitch Fix

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for SFIX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stitch Fix currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around.

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.31% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $1.23, which implies a 30.9% year-over-year increase. The consensus mark has increased a couple of cents in the past 30 days.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here

Sprouts Farmers Market’s top line is also expected to have increased year over year. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.2 billion, which indicates a rise of 14.5% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. SFM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.5%, on average.

J.Jill, Inc. (JILL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.71% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a decline in both top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J.Jill’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $156.7 million, which indicates a decrease of 3% from the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for J.Jill’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 88 cents, which has been stable in the past 30 days, shows a decline of 27.9% from the year-ago period. JILL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.9%, on average.

Expedia Group (EXPE - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +1.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is slated to register a top-line increase when it reports second-quarter 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPE’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.70 billion, which indicates growth of 4.1% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Expedia Group’s quarterly earnings has increased five cents in the past 30 days to $4.10 per share. The estimate indicates growth of 16.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. EXPE delivered an average earnings surprise of 5.5% in the trailing four quarters.

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