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AJG Outperforms Industry, Trades at Premium: How to Play the Stock
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Key Takeaways
Arthur J. Gallagher's shares have gained 24.5% in the past year, outperforming its industry's return of 24.1%.
The Risk Management segment's organic growth is expected to improve in the second half of 2025.
The Brokerage segment's organic growth is projected at 6-8% for 2025.
Shares of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG - Free Report) have gained 24.5% in the past year, outperforming its industry, the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s return of 24.1%, 19.7% and 11.9%, respectively.
The insurer has a market capitalization of $81.38 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 1.3 million.
AJG vs Industry, Sector & S&P 500 in 1 Year
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Arthur J. Gallagher shares are trading well above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
AJG Price Movement vs. 200-Day Moving Average
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AJG Shares are Expensive
AJG shares are trading at a premium to the industry. Its price-to-book value of 26.19X is higher than the industry average of 22.71X. Shares of other insurers like Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO - Free Report) and Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE - Free Report) are also trading at a multiple higher than the industry average, while Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC - Free Report) is trading at a discount.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AJG’s Growth Projection Encourages
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arthur J. Gallagher’s 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 9.4%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $13.75 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 20.9%. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 22.5% and 22.9%, respectively, from the 2025 estimates.
Earnings of Arthur J. Gallagher grew 20.4% in the last five years, better than the industry average of 15.2%.
Impressive Earnings Surprise History of AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher’s bottom line surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and matched in one, the average being 2.29%.
Bearish Analyst Sentiment on AJG
Five of the seven analysts covering the stock have lowered estimates for 2025, while three analysts have lowered the same for 2026 over the past 30 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has moved down 1.2% in the past 30 days, while the same for 2026 has moved down 0.4% in the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Target Price Reflects Potential Upside
Based on short-term price targets offered by 15 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $345.00 per share. The average indicates a potential 4.9% upside from the last closing price.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Impacting AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher insurer remains focused on generating both organic (particularly international) and inorganic growth and is, thus, tapping into growth opportunities worldwide. This, coupled with solid retention and improving renewal premiums across all major geographies and most product lines, bodes well for growth.
Arthur J. Gallagher expects organic growth to improve in the second half of 2025 in the Risk Management segment. Looking forward, AJG expects 2025 adjusted EBITDAC margin to be 20.5%. It continues to expect the Brokerage segment’s organic growth in the range of 6% to 8% for 2025.
AJG’s revenues are geographically diversified with strong domestic and international operations. International contributes about one-third of revenues. Given the number and size of its non-U.S. acquisitions, AJG expects international contributions to its total revenues to trend upward.
Its inorganic growth story is impressive. Since Jan. 1, 2002, the company has acquired 761 companies so far. Revenue growth rates generally ranged from 5% to 17.5% for 2025 acquisitions. During the first quarter, AJG completed 11 new tuck-in mergers, representing around $100 million of estimated annualized revenues. Looking at the pipeline, AJG has more than 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing about $450 million of annualized revenues.
Banking on its capital position, AJG distributes wealth to shareholders through dividend hikes and share repurchases. In the first quarter of 2025, the dividend was raised by 8.3%, witnessing a six-year CAGR (2020-2025) of 7.6%.
However, Arthur J. Gallagher has been experiencing an increase in expenses due to higher compensation and operating expenses that have been eroding margins.
Conclusion
AJG continues to benefit from solid retention, improving renewal premiums, and organic and inorganic growth. The Risk Management and Brokerage segments should continue to witness significant growth. A robust capital position over the years reflects its financial flexibility. Its impressive dividend history, as well as solid growth projections, are other positives.
Image: Bigstock
AJG Outperforms Industry, Trades at Premium: How to Play the Stock
Key Takeaways
Shares of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG - Free Report) have gained 24.5% in the past year, outperforming its industry, the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s return of 24.1%, 19.7% and 11.9%, respectively.
The insurer has a market capitalization of $81.38 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 1.3 million.
AJG vs Industry, Sector & S&P 500 in 1 Year
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Arthur J. Gallagher shares are trading well above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
AJG Price Movement vs. 200-Day Moving Average
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AJG Shares are Expensive
AJG shares are trading at a premium to the industry. Its price-to-book value of 26.19X is higher than the industry average of 22.71X. Shares of other insurers like Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO - Free Report) and Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE - Free Report) are also trading at a multiple higher than the industry average, while Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC - Free Report) is trading at a discount.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AJG’s Growth Projection Encourages
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arthur J. Gallagher’s 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 9.4%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $13.75 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 20.9%. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 22.5% and 22.9%, respectively, from the 2025 estimates.
Earnings of Arthur J. Gallagher grew 20.4% in the last five years, better than the industry average of 15.2%.
Impressive Earnings Surprise History of AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher’s bottom line surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and matched in one, the average being 2.29%.
Bearish Analyst Sentiment on AJG
Five of the seven analysts covering the stock have lowered estimates for 2025, while three analysts have lowered the same for 2026 over the past 30 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has moved down 1.2% in the past 30 days, while the same for 2026 has moved down 0.4% in the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Target Price Reflects Potential Upside
Based on short-term price targets offered by 15 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $345.00 per share. The average indicates a potential 4.9% upside from the last closing price.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Impacting AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher insurer remains focused on generating both organic (particularly international) and inorganic growth and is, thus, tapping into growth opportunities worldwide. This, coupled with solid retention and improving renewal premiums across all major geographies and most product lines, bodes well for growth.
Arthur J. Gallagher expects organic growth to improve in the second half of 2025 in the Risk Management segment. Looking forward, AJG expects 2025 adjusted EBITDAC margin to be 20.5%. It continues to expect the Brokerage segment’s organic growth in the range of 6% to 8% for 2025.
AJG’s revenues are geographically diversified with strong domestic and international operations. International contributes about one-third of revenues. Given the number and size of its non-U.S. acquisitions, AJG expects international contributions to its total revenues to trend upward.
Its inorganic growth story is impressive. Since Jan. 1, 2002, the company has acquired 761 companies so far. Revenue growth rates generally ranged from 5% to 17.5% for 2025 acquisitions. During the first quarter, AJG completed 11 new tuck-in mergers, representing around $100 million of estimated annualized revenues. Looking at the pipeline, AJG has more than 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing about $450 million of annualized revenues.
Banking on its capital position, AJG distributes wealth to shareholders through dividend hikes and share repurchases. In the first quarter of 2025, the dividend was raised by 8.3%, witnessing a six-year CAGR (2020-2025) of 7.6%.
However, Arthur J. Gallagher has been experiencing an increase in expenses due to higher compensation and operating expenses that have been eroding margins.
Conclusion
AJG continues to benefit from solid retention, improving renewal premiums, and organic and inorganic growth. The Risk Management and Brokerage segments should continue to witness significant growth. A robust capital position over the years reflects its financial flexibility. Its impressive dividend history, as well as solid growth projections, are other positives.
Given the escalating expenses, bearish analysts’ sentiment and premium valuation, it is better to stay cautious about this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.