Back to top

Image: Bigstock

NMIH Stock Near 52-Week High: A Signal for Investors to Hold Tight?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Key Takeaways

  • NMIH is poised to capitalize on growth in the mortgage insurance sector.
  • A robust reinsurance strategy helps NMIH manage credit volatility and access efficient growth capital.
  • Earnings growth is supported by increased production of both monthly and single premium policies.

Shares of NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH - Free Report) closed at $40.69 on Monday, near its 52-week high of $42.49. This proximity underscores investor confidence. It has the ingredients for further price appreciation. The stock is trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) of $36.94 and $37.82, respectively, indicating solid upward momentum. SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data.

Earnings of NMI Holdings grew 15.7% in the last five years. NMIH has a solid surprise history. The insurer has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one, the average being 8.17%.

NMIH Price Movement vs. 50- Day, 200-Day Moving Average

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

NMIH is an Outperformer

Shares of NMI Holdings have gained 25.1% in the past year, outperforming its industry, the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s growth of 19%, 18.4% and 9.4%, respectively.

NMIH vs Industry, Sector & S&P 500 in 1 Year

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Attractive Valuation of NMIH

NMI Holdings’ shares are trading at a discount compared to the industry. Its forward price-to-book value of 1.36X is lower than the industry average of 1.56X, the Finance sector’s 4.11X and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite’s 8.04X. Also, it has a Value Score of B.
NMIH is also cheaper compared with The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV - Free Report) , Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) and American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG - Free Report) .

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

NMIH’s Encouraging Growth Projection

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NMI Holdings’ 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 8%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $ 685.46 million, implying a year-over-year improvement of 5.3%. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 3.7% and 2.3%, respectively, from the corresponding 2025 estimates.

Optimist Analyst Sentiment on NMIH

Each of the four analysts covering the stock hasve raised estimates for 2025, and two analysts have raised the same for 2026 over the past 60 days. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings has moved up 5.4% and 1.2%, respectively, in the past 60 days.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Average Target Price for NMIH Suggests Upside

Based on short-term price targets offered by seven analysts, the Zacks average price target is $41.86 per share. The average suggests a potential 3.7% upside from the last closing price.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

NMI Holdings’ Favorable Return on Capital

Return on equity (ROE) for the trailing 12 months was 17.27%, which compared favorably with the industry’s 7.8%. This reflects its efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds.

Key Points to Note for NMIH

NMIH stands to gain from new business opportunities in a growing mortgage insurance market. NMI Holdings’ mortgage insurance portfolio is expected to create a strong foundation for future earnings.

Growth in monthly and single premium policy production is tied to the increased penetration of existing customer accounts. New customer account activation will also drive results. 

In order to enhance its return profile, absorb losses, provide efficient growth capital and mitigate the impact of credit volatility, NMI Holdings has a comprehensive reinsurance program for its in-force portfolio.

To drive margin expansion, NMIH remains focused on efficiency and expense management. In February 2025, the board authorized a new $250 million share repurchase program effective through Dec. 31, 2027, and an extension of the existing share repurchase programs through Dec. 31, 2027, to align its remaining tenor with that of the new $250 million program. NMIH has $304.2 million of repurchase capacity remaining under the existing program.

All these together should help the insurer continue to generate solid mid-teens shareholders’ returns.

Conclusion

NMI Holdings is well-positioned for growth on new primary insurance written, direct primary insurance in force and a comprehensive reinsurance program. 

NMIH should also benefit from a higher return on capital, favorable growth estimates, as well as the affordability of shares. The stock also has a VGM Score of B. VGM Score helps identify stocks with the most attractive value, best growth and the most promising momentum.
It is, therefore, wise to hold on to this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Published in