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Can Ozempic, Wegovy Drive Further Growth for NVO in the Obesity Space?

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Key Takeaways

  • Combined sales of Ozempic and Wegovy hit DKK 50.1B in Q1 2025, making up 66% of NVO's total revenues.
  • Manufacturing ramp-up ended FDA shortages, positioning NVO's drugs for a sales rebound in the coming quarters.
  • NVO faces rising pressure from rivals like LLY, AMGN and VKTX in the expanding obesity market.

Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) generates most of its revenues from the sales of its blockbuster GLP-1 injections, Ozempic for type II diabetes (T2D) and Wegovy for obesity. Ozempic and Wegovy include the same compound, semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist. While Ozempic was first approved in 2017, Wegovy was approved later in 2021. Both medications have witnessed rapid demand because of increased prescription rates, which have boosted their sales.

Ozempic and Wegovy generated combined sales of DKK 50.1 billion in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for around 66% of the company’s total revenues. Novo Nordisk is a global market leader in the diabetes GLP-1 segment, with around 54% value market share as of March-end. The company is also a global obesity market leader with a branded volume market share of 68.7% as of the end of the first quarter of 2025.

In the second half of 2024, Novo Nordisk faced supply shortages of Ozempic and Wegovy, leading to their inclusion on the FDA’s Drug Shortage list and slowing sales growth. After ramping up manufacturing, the FDA, earlier this year, declared the drugs are no longer in short supply, positioning them for a potential rebound in upcoming quarters. NVO has also struck deals with a pharmacy benefit manager and telehealth providers for marketing Wegovy in the United States, which are likely to give the company a commercial advantage over its competitors in the obesity market.

Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Ozempic and Wegovy higher. Ozempic’s label has been expanded to include the treatment of cardiovascular risk reduction as well as for kidney failure in T2D patients. Wegovy’s label, on the other hand, has been expanded to reduce the risks of major adverse cardiovascular events. Novo Nordisk is also looking to further expand Wegovy’s indication for preventing heart failure in obesity patients. Additionally, a regulatory application seeking the approval of oral semaglutide 25 mg for obesity is currently under review by the FDA.

Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space

The obesity market is heating up and is expected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, according to data from Goldman Sachs. Novo Nordisk’s arch-rival in the obesity market is Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) . NVO’s Ozempic and Wegovy face strong competition from Lilly’s tirzepatide medicines, Mounjaro (T2D) and Wegovy (obesity). Despite being on the market for less than three years, Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound have witnessed strong sales driven by rapid demand.

Several companies like Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline.

Amgen has begun a broad phase III program on its dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, MariTide, across obesity, obesity-related conditions and type II diabetes, with the first two phase III studies initiated in March. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Phase III studies with the subcutaneous formulation of VK2735 are on track to begin this year.

NVO’sStock Price, Valuation, Estimates

Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have lost 13.6% against the industry’s 2.5% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, but below its 200-day moving average.

NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Novo Nordisk is trading at a premium to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 17.67 forward earnings, which is higher than 15.63 for the industry. However, the stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.26.

NVO Stock Valuation

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings estimates for 2025 have improved from $3.80 to $3.84 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings per share estimates have improved from $4.60 to $4.64.

NVO Estimate Movement

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The stock’s return on equity on a trailing 12-month basis is 80.95%, which is higher than 33.56% for the large drugmaker industry, as seen in the chart below.

NVO Return on Equity

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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