Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Stride's Earnings Estimates Trending Up: Is It Time to Buy the Stock?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Key Takeaways

  • LRN's earnings estimates rose 6.3% for 2025 and 6.2% for 2026 over the past 60 days.
  • Stride is seeing strong enrollment growth, up 20% year over year across key learning segments.
  • Revenue guidance for 2025 was raised to $2.37B-$2.385B, implying up to 16.9% year-over-year growth.

Stride, Inc.’s (LRN - Free Report) earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 have trended upward in the past 60 days. As evidenced by the chart below, the estimates grew 6.3% to $7.09 per share and 6.2% to $7.76 per share, respectively, for the fiscal years. Besides, the estimated fiscal 2025 and 2026 figures imply year-over-year growth of 51.2% and 9.4%, respectively.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The analysts’ sentiments are bullish, attributable to the favorable prospects of near and long-term revenue visibility and profitability, mainly backed by the demand patterns of students and parents shifting toward tech-based alternatives and career-focused programs. Given the service and product offerings of Stride, these market fundamentals complement its growth trends amid market uncertainties.

The tailwinds mentioned above are pushing Stride forward, letting it outshine in the education market. So far this year, the shares of this Virginia-based education company have trended upward 39.4%, significantly outperforming the Zacks Schools industry, the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 index. The detailed price performance is shown in the chart below.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Moreover, during the year-to-date period, LRN also outdid a few of the other market players, including Adtalem Global Education Inc. (ATGE - Free Report) , Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA - Free Report) and Chegg, Inc. (CHGG - Free Report) . During the same time frame, shares of Adtalem grew 37%, while those of Strategic Education and Chegg tumbled 9.9% and 10.6%, respectively.

Let’s dive deep into understanding the factors that are driving Stride’s momentum and positioning it for further growth in the upcoming period.

Diversified Product & Service Offerings

Stride indulges in offering diversified and blended education programs, ranging from mainstream K-12 programs to career learning and adult certification programs. Alongside undergoing basic K-12 education, the parents in the United States are currently shifting their focus to a more skill-based service for their kids. This robust demand trend for career-focused alternatives has boosted the demand for the company’s career-learning programs, hence offering elevated revenue visibility and profitability structure for the long term. This shift toward a more career-based offering is proving to be incremental for market players like Adtalem and Strategic Education, as well.

For maintaining this momentum and grabbing onto possible opportunities, Stride is continuously executing strategies to offer products and services, having a favorable mix of K-12 and career learning offerings. Thanks to these market fundamentals, LRN’s enrollment pattern is receiving an ample boost, positioning it for further growth. During the first nine months of fiscal 2025, enrollment in the General Education and Career Learning segments grew year over year by 12.8% to 137,500 students and 32% to 96,000 students, respectively, bringing the overall enrollment growth to 20%.

Online Program Alternatives

The online education space is continuing to evolve as digital learning becomes an increasingly mainstream option for students of all ages. This aspect is proving favorable for LRN, given its online alternative offerings across its portfolio. The company focuses on offering full-time online K-12 programs to students looking for an online alternative, while currently expanding its focus toward career learning and adult certification programs. With the ongoing regulatory reform trends in the United States education industry, the demand for online full-time K-12 programs and career education is robust, proving incremental for Stride’s long-term prospects. Notably, education technology companies like Chegg are also benefiting from the increasing demand for online education alternatives.

Owing to these robust trends alongside its in-house capabilities, Stride raised its fiscal 2025 outlook while focusing on meeting its fiscal 2028 target. The company raised its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance between $2.37 billion and $2.385 billion (from the $2.32-$2.355 billion range expected earlier), indicating a rise between 16.2% and 16.9% year over year. Moreover, under the fiscal 2028 targets, it expects revenues to grow in the range of $2.70-$3.30 billion, reflecting a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from fiscal 2023. Adjusted operating income is projected to be between $415 million and $585 million (with a 20% CAGR). Also, earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be between $6.15 and $8.35, with a CAGR of 20%.

Stable Liquidity Position

Stride is doing a remarkable job in ensuring a stable cash position while reducing its debt obligations amid macro uncertainties. Amid a favorable market backdrop, at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2025, its cash and cash equivalents were $528.5 million, up from $500.6 million at fiscal 2024-end. As of March 31, 2025, long-term debt stood at $415.9 million, slightly up from $414.7 million. Although the debt moved up, the liquidity position is sufficient to meet them.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The company follows a balanced capital allocation approach, ensuring that its free cash is used effectively on business reinvestments and maintaining shareholder value. The business reinvestment areas include organic growth, new product and technology development, and accretive mergers and acquisitions.

Stride’s ROE Trend

The company’s trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) reflects its growth potential and focus on maintaining shareholder value. As evidenced by the chart below, Stride’s ROE is significantly better than the industry.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

LRN Trading at a Premium

LRN stock is currently trading at a premium compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.73X, as evidenced by the chart below. The overvaluation of the stock compared with its industry peers indicates its strong potential in the market, given the favorable trends backing it up.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Concluding Thoughts on Investment

Per the above discussion, the market demand trends are moving in favor of Stride, resulting in robust enrollment growth. Besides its diversified program offerings, online alternatives and the ongoing regulatory reforms in the education market are further catalyzing the growth prospects. Owing to these trends, the company stays well-positioned to meet its near-term as well as long-term goals while navigating through the market uncertainties.

The optimistic environment is reflected in the upward earnings estimate revision for the ongoing and the upcoming fiscal years. Investors must consider all these aspects while deciding on any action taken in favor of LRN stock.

Moreover, analysts’ optimism regarding LRN stock is reflected in four of the five recommendations currently pointing at a "Strong Buy”.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Thus, based on the above discussion and trends of the technical indicators, this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock is a decent choice to be added to the portfolio for now. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Published in