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LLY vs. ABBV: Which Pharma Powerhouse is the Better Bet?
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Key Takeaways
LLY's Mounjaro and Zepbound now generate 50% of revenues and drive strong growth despite recent headwinds.
ABBV expects $24.7B in 2025 sales from Skyrizi and Rinvoq, helping offset Humira's post-LOE revenue decline.
LLY expects 32% sales growth in 2025, but ABBV boasts rising estimates and a lower valuation.
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and AbbVie (ABBV - Free Report) are U.S.-based pharmaceutical powerhouses with blockbuster drug portfolios, robust pipelines, strong market capitalization and global footprint. Both companies have a strong presence in immunology, oncology and neuroscience areas. Other than that, AbbVie also has products for aesthetics and eye care, while Lilly boasts a leading presence in cardiometabolic health.
While AbbVie has seen tremendous success with its immunology drugs, Lilly’s GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, under its cardiometabolic health business, are the key to its success story.
Both stocks are being seen as defensive pharma plays amid tariff and pricing uncertainties. But which one is a better investment option today? Let’s take a closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges to make an informed choice.
The Case for Lilly
Lilly has a strong portfolio of medicines to treat diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases, and its cardiometabolic business is its most successful business, particularly with the success of its popular tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.
Despite being on the market for less than three years, GLP-1 medicines, Mounjaro and Zepbound, became key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound account for around 50% of the company’s total revenues.
Though sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations in the second half of 2024, hurt by slower-than-expected growth and unfavorable channel dynamics, their sales picked up in the first quarter of 2025, driven by launches of the drugs in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production.
We believe that increased uptake in outside U.S. markets and deeper penetration in the U.S. market will continue to drive Mounjaro and Zepbound’s growth in future quarters. Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound higher.
Other than Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for some other new drugs in the past couple of years across different therapeutic areas like Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla (donanemab). Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in 2025.
Lilly is also making rapid pipeline progress in obesity, diabetes and cancer, with several key mid and late-stage data-readouts expected this year. Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several next-gen candidates currently in clinical development.
Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States. In 2025, Lilly expects a mid-to-high single-digit percentage price decline, including U.S. Part D changes. Potential competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is another headwind.
Mounjaro and Zepbound face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. Novo Nordisk has already filed an application for an oral version of Wegovy and also has several next-generation candidates in its obesity pipeline, like CagriSema and amycretin.
CVS Caremark, a major pharmacy benefit manager (“PBM”), has signed a partnership with NVO to make Wegovy its preferred GLP-1 therapy for weight loss, effective July 1. Hims & Hers Health also signed a distribution partnership with NVO in April to offer Wegovy at a discounted price to its platform users. It remains to be seen if NVO’s deals affect Zepbound’s market share going forward.
The Case for AbbVie
AbbVie has successfully navigated the loss of exclusivity (“LOE”) of its blockbuster drug, Humira, which once generated more than 50% of its total revenues. It has accomplished this by launching two other successful new immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are performing extremely well, bolstered by approvals in new indications and should support top-line growth in the next few years.
Skyrizi and Rinvoq generated combined sales of $5.1 billion in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting growth of more than 65%. The drugs are seeing strong performance across all their approved indications. AbbVie expects combined sales of Skyrizi and Rinvoq to be around $24.7 billion in 2025 and more than $31 billion by 2027.
The company’s oncology strategy is also gaining traction, supported by increasing contributions from newer products, Elahere and Epkinly. In May, the FDA approved its antibody-drug-conjugate, Emreli (Teliso-V), for treating advanced non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)
AbbVie has several early/mid-stage pipeline candidates with blockbuster potential. The company expects several regulatory submissions, approvals and key data readouts in the next 12 months.
The company has been on an acquisition spree in the past couple of years, which is strengthening its pipeline. It has signed several M&A deals in the immunology space, its core area, while also signing some early-stage deals in oncology and neuroscience areas. It has also forayed into the lucrative obesity space through a licensing deal with Denmark-based Gubra for the latter’s experimental long-acting amylin analog for obesity.
However, the company faces some near-term headwinds like Humira’s biosimilar erosion, increasing competitive pressure on cancer drug Imbruvica and declining sales of Juvederm fillers in the United States and China due to challenging market conditions.
How Do Estimates Compare for LLY & ABBV?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 33.03% and 68.9%, respectively. EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have declined over the past 60 days.
LLY Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 6.6% and 21.3%, respectively. The EPS estimate for 2025 has risen from $12.26 per share to $12.28 per share over the past 60 days, while that for 2026 has risen from $13.96 per share to $14.06 per share over the same timeframe.
ABBV Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance and Valuation of LLY & ABBV
Year to date, while LLY’s stock has risen 2.1%, AbbVie’s stock has risen 6.4%. The industry has declined 0.2% in the said time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AbbVie looks more attractive than Lilly from a valuation standpoint. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Lilly’s shares currently trade at 30.03 forward earnings, significantly higher than 14.98 for the industry. However, LLY currently trades lower than its 5-year mean of 34.54. AbbVie’s shares currently trade at 14.15 forward earnings, lower than the industry. However, ABBV trades above the stock’s 5-year mean of 12.40.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AbbVie’s dividend yield is 3.5%, while Lilly’s is around 0.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
LLY or ABBV: Which is a Better Pick?
AbbVie & Lilly have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each, which makes choosing one stock a difficult task.
Lilly is a good stock to have in one’s portfolio, considering its diversified product and pipeline portfolio and robust growth prospects despite its expensive valuation. Lilly’s tremendous success with Mounjaro and Zepbound has made it the largest drugmaker with a market cap of more than $750 billion, and its stock price has crossed $800 per share. In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, indicating an impressive 32% year-over-year growth.
On the other hand, AbbVie has faced its biggest challenge — Humira’s patent cliff — quite well and looks well-positioned for continued strong growth in the years ahead. AbbVie expects to return to robust revenue growth in 2025, which is just the second year following the U.S. Humira LOE, driven by its ex-Humira platform. Boosted by its new product launches, AbbVie expects to return to robust mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 with a high single-digit CAGR through 2029, as it has no significant LOE event for the rest of this decade. A substantial portion of this growth is expected to be driven by robust performances from Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
Overall, considering Lilly’s several near-term challenges, AbbVie looks like a safer bet for short-term investors, given its price appreciation, rising estimates, cheaper valuation, stronger dividends, and solid near-term gains.
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LLY vs. ABBV: Which Pharma Powerhouse is the Better Bet?
Key Takeaways
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and AbbVie (ABBV - Free Report) are U.S.-based pharmaceutical powerhouses with blockbuster drug portfolios, robust pipelines, strong market capitalization and global footprint. Both companies have a strong presence in immunology, oncology and neuroscience areas. Other than that, AbbVie also has products for aesthetics and eye care, while Lilly boasts a leading presence in cardiometabolic health.
While AbbVie has seen tremendous success with its immunology drugs, Lilly’s GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, under its cardiometabolic health business, are the key to its success story.
Both stocks are being seen as defensive pharma plays amid tariff and pricing uncertainties. But which one is a better investment option today? Let’s take a closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges to make an informed choice.
The Case for Lilly
Lilly has a strong portfolio of medicines to treat diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases, and its cardiometabolic business is its most successful business, particularly with the success of its popular tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.
Despite being on the market for less than three years, GLP-1 medicines, Mounjaro and Zepbound, became key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound account for around 50% of the company’s total revenues.
Though sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations in the second half of 2024, hurt by slower-than-expected growth and unfavorable channel dynamics, their sales picked up in the first quarter of 2025, driven by launches of the drugs in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production.
We believe that increased uptake in outside U.S. markets and deeper penetration in the U.S. market will continue to drive Mounjaro and Zepbound’s growth in future quarters. Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound higher.
Other than Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for some other new drugs in the past couple of years across different therapeutic areas like Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla (donanemab). Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in 2025.
Lilly is also making rapid pipeline progress in obesity, diabetes and cancer, with several key mid and late-stage data-readouts expected this year. Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several next-gen candidates currently in clinical development.
Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States. In 2025, Lilly expects a mid-to-high single-digit percentage price decline, including U.S. Part D changes. Potential competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is another headwind.
Mounjaro and Zepbound face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. Novo Nordisk has already filed an application for an oral version of Wegovy and also has several next-generation candidates in its obesity pipeline, like CagriSema and amycretin.
CVS Caremark, a major pharmacy benefit manager (“PBM”), has signed a partnership with NVO to make Wegovy its preferred GLP-1 therapy for weight loss, effective July 1. Hims & Hers Health also signed a distribution partnership with NVO in April to offer Wegovy at a discounted price to its platform users. It remains to be seen if NVO’s deals affect Zepbound’s market share going forward.
The Case for AbbVie
AbbVie has successfully navigated the loss of exclusivity (“LOE”) of its blockbuster drug, Humira, which once generated more than 50% of its total revenues. It has accomplished this by launching two other successful new immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are performing extremely well, bolstered by approvals in new indications and should support top-line growth in the next few years.
Skyrizi and Rinvoq generated combined sales of $5.1 billion in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting growth of more than 65%. The drugs are seeing strong performance across all their approved indications. AbbVie expects combined sales of Skyrizi and Rinvoq to be around $24.7 billion in 2025 and more than $31 billion by 2027.
The company’s oncology strategy is also gaining traction, supported by increasing contributions from newer products, Elahere and Epkinly. In May, the FDA approved its antibody-drug-conjugate, Emreli (Teliso-V), for treating advanced non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)
AbbVie has several early/mid-stage pipeline candidates with blockbuster potential. The company expects several regulatory submissions, approvals and key data readouts in the next 12 months.
The company has been on an acquisition spree in the past couple of years, which is strengthening its pipeline. It has signed several M&A deals in the immunology space, its core area, while also signing some early-stage deals in oncology and neuroscience areas. It has also forayed into the lucrative obesity space through a licensing deal with Denmark-based Gubra for the latter’s experimental long-acting amylin analog for obesity.
However, the company faces some near-term headwinds like Humira’s biosimilar erosion, increasing competitive pressure on cancer drug Imbruvica and declining sales of Juvederm fillers in the United States and China due to challenging market conditions.
How Do Estimates Compare for LLY & ABBV?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 33.03% and 68.9%, respectively. EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have declined over the past 60 days.
LLY Estimate Movement
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 6.6% and 21.3%, respectively. The EPS estimate for 2025 has risen from $12.26 per share to $12.28 per share over the past 60 days, while that for 2026 has risen from $13.96 per share to $14.06 per share over the same timeframe.
ABBV Estimate Movement
Price Performance and Valuation of LLY & ABBV
Year to date, while LLY’s stock has risen 2.1%, AbbVie’s stock has risen 6.4%. The industry has declined 0.2% in the said time frame.
AbbVie looks more attractive than Lilly from a valuation standpoint. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Lilly’s shares currently trade at 30.03 forward earnings, significantly higher than 14.98 for the industry. However, LLY currently trades lower than its 5-year mean of 34.54. AbbVie’s shares currently trade at 14.15 forward earnings, lower than the industry. However, ABBV trades above the stock’s 5-year mean of 12.40.
AbbVie’s dividend yield is 3.5%, while Lilly’s is around 0.8%.
LLY or ABBV: Which is a Better Pick?
AbbVie & Lilly have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each, which makes choosing one stock a difficult task.
Lilly is a good stock to have in one’s portfolio, considering its diversified product and pipeline portfolio and robust growth prospects despite its expensive valuation. Lilly’s tremendous success with Mounjaro and Zepbound has made it the largest drugmaker with a market cap of more than $750 billion, and its stock price has crossed $800 per share. In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, indicating an impressive 32% year-over-year growth.
On the other hand, AbbVie has faced its biggest challenge — Humira’s patent cliff — quite well and looks well-positioned for continued strong growth in the years ahead. AbbVie expects to return to robust revenue growth in 2025, which is just the second year following the U.S. Humira LOE, driven by its ex-Humira platform. Boosted by its new product launches, AbbVie expects to return to robust mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 with a high single-digit CAGR through 2029, as it has no significant LOE event for the rest of this decade. A substantial portion of this growth is expected to be driven by robust performances from Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
Overall, considering Lilly’s several near-term challenges, AbbVie looks like a safer bet for short-term investors, given its price appreciation, rising estimates, cheaper valuation, stronger dividends, and solid near-term gains.