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Wall Street's Leading Stories of 1H25 and Outlook for 2H
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Key Takeaways
Trump's sweeping tariffs rattled markets before a partial pause and steady Fed rates sparked a sharp recovery.
NVDA and MSFT lead the AI-driven trillion-dollar market cap battle shaping tech's 2H trajectory.
Gold's record run puts AU in the spotlight as investors hedge against tariffs and global tensions.
The first half of 2025 has been defined by heightened volatility and uncertainty, largely stemming from the new administration’s trade policies. After hitting a low in early April, Wall Street staged a strong rebound fueled by renewed optimism over trade negotiations, solid corporate earnings, easing inflation and continued momentum in artificial intelligence.
Technology stocks led the charge, with the Magnificent Seven making a powerful comeback after months of turbulence.
As the half-year mark approaches, the S&P 500 is now less than 3% below its record high, while the Nasdaq Composite is 3.4% off its all-time peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, remains only marginally positive for the year. Volatility is expected to persist in the second half.
Let’s discuss these events in detail below with the stocks:
Trump Tariff Policies
On April 2, Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs dubbed “Liberation Day” tariffs. These included a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all imports, with a few exceptions such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber. On top of the baseline, Trump introduced “reciprocal” tariffs that targeted specific countries. China faced tariffs ranging from 34% to 54%, the European Union 20%, Japan 24% and Vietnam up to 46%. These tariffs officially took effect on April 9.
Facing backlash and international criticism, the Trump administration issued a 90-day pause on tariff hikes for over 75 countries on May 12, though the 10% baseline tariff remained in place. Additionally, Chinese tariffs were reduced from a peak of 145% to around 30%, though they remained substantially elevated. On May 30, Trump doubled tariffs on imported steel, raising them from 25% to 50%, citing national security concerns and the need to protect U.S. industry.
These actions faced legal scrutiny. On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that many of the tariffs were illegal under international trade law. However, the court also issued a stay, meaning the tariffs would remain in place pending appeals.
These tariff policies triggered an initial market rout, with trillions lost in just days. However, the partial pause in tariffs and the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady led to a strong rebound. Some sectors emerged as clear winners. Companies like Palantir Technologies (PLTR - Free Report) surged more than 90% since the April sell-off and recently hit a new all-time high. The stock saw a solid earnings estimate revision of 3 cents over the past 60 days for this year and has an estimated growth of 41.46%. Palantir Technologies has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a Growth Score of A.
S&P 500’s Bear-Bull Ride
The S&P 500 hit a record high on Feb. 19 before tumbling toward bear market territory by April 8. However, the index staged a remarkable rebound, marking its fastest recovery since 1982. In May, it delivered the strongest performance since 1990 and the biggest monthly gain since November 2023.
Buoyed by this turnaround, a growing number of Wall Street strategists have turned bullish in recent weeks. Several firms have raised their year-end S&P 500 targets to the 6,300–6,500 range, reflecting renewed confidence in the market’s outlook for the second half of 2025.
Newmont (NEM - Free Report) , having a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), is one of the best-performing stocks of the first half. The stock saw a positive earnings estimate revision of 5 cents for this year over the past month, with an estimated growth rate of 20.1%. Newmont has a VGM Score of A, indicating that it is poised for more gains ahead. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
NVDA vs. MSFT: The Trillion-Dollar Market Cap Battle Heats Up
The race for the title of the world’s most valuable publicly traded company has intensified in 2025, with NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) and Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) locked in a high-stakes battle for market cap supremacy. Fueled by the explosive growth of artificial intelligence, the rivalry has captured Wall Street’s full attention and is reshaping the tech landscape in real time.
As of June 18, Microsoft held a slight lead with a market capitalization exceeding $3.57 trillion. Its ascent was driven by robust cloud expansion, deepening AI integrations through its partnership with OpenAI, and continued dominance in the enterprise software space. NVIDIA, meanwhile, is capitalizing on an unprecedented demand cycle for its AI chips, rapidly scaling sales of its GPUs that power the very heart of AI computing. Since bottoming at just over $94 in early April, NVDA stock has added more than $1 trillion in market value. Growth-focused traders are flocking to NVIDIA for its unprecedented AI chip momentum, high margins and dominant position in next-gen computing.
In essence, NVIDIA may be building the engine of the AI revolution, but Microsoft is constructing the operating system around it. Azure continues to be one of the fastest-growing cloud platforms globally, while Microsoft 365 and Teams have become indispensable tools in the modern digital workplace. Microsoft and NVIDIA have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each.
Gold Set to Shine Further
Gold stocks have surged in popularity this year, driven by a flight to safety amid growing global uncertainty. Investors are turning to the precious metal to shield their portfolios from the disruptive impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade and rising concerns of an economic slowdown. Gold recently soared to a new all-time high, topping $3,400 per ounce last month.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East—particularly the Israel-Iran conflict—have intensified safe-haven demand, pushing both gold prices and gold-related equities higher. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar and continued central bank accumulation have further fueled gold’s rally. Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold could climb to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the metal and gold stocks.
Among the potential beneficiaries is AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU - Free Report) , a global gold mining company with operations across Africa, the Americas and Australia. The company has seen a solid earnings estimate revision of 60 cents over the past 30 days for this year, with an estimated growth of 122.1%. Despite more than doubling year to date, AngloGold remains attractively valued, trading at a P/E ratio of 9.80 compared with the industry average of 3.26. The stock sports a Zacks Rank #1 and has a VGM Score of A, underscoring its compelling investment potential amid the ongoing gold rally.
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Wall Street's Leading Stories of 1H25 and Outlook for 2H
Key Takeaways
The first half of 2025 has been defined by heightened volatility and uncertainty, largely stemming from the new administration’s trade policies. After hitting a low in early April, Wall Street staged a strong rebound fueled by renewed optimism over trade negotiations, solid corporate earnings, easing inflation and continued momentum in artificial intelligence.
Technology stocks led the charge, with the Magnificent Seven making a powerful comeback after months of turbulence.
As the half-year mark approaches, the S&P 500 is now less than 3% below its record high, while the Nasdaq Composite is 3.4% off its all-time peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, remains only marginally positive for the year. Volatility is expected to persist in the second half.
Let’s discuss these events in detail below with the stocks:
Trump Tariff Policies
On April 2, Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs dubbed “Liberation Day” tariffs. These included a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all imports, with a few exceptions such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber. On top of the baseline, Trump introduced “reciprocal” tariffs that targeted specific countries. China faced tariffs ranging from 34% to 54%, the European Union 20%, Japan 24% and Vietnam up to 46%. These tariffs officially took effect on April 9.
Facing backlash and international criticism, the Trump administration issued a 90-day pause on tariff hikes for over 75 countries on May 12, though the 10% baseline tariff remained in place. Additionally, Chinese tariffs were reduced from a peak of 145% to around 30%, though they remained substantially elevated. On May 30, Trump doubled tariffs on imported steel, raising them from 25% to 50%, citing national security concerns and the need to protect U.S. industry.
These actions faced legal scrutiny. On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that many of the tariffs were illegal under international trade law. However, the court also issued a stay, meaning the tariffs would remain in place pending appeals.
These tariff policies triggered an initial market rout, with trillions lost in just days. However, the partial pause in tariffs and the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady led to a strong rebound. Some sectors emerged as clear winners. Companies like Palantir Technologies (PLTR - Free Report) surged more than 90% since the April sell-off and recently hit a new all-time high. The stock saw a solid earnings estimate revision of 3 cents over the past 60 days for this year and has an estimated growth of 41.46%. Palantir Technologies has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a Growth Score of A.
S&P 500’s Bear-Bull Ride
The S&P 500 hit a record high on Feb. 19 before tumbling toward bear market territory by April 8. However, the index staged a remarkable rebound, marking its fastest recovery since 1982. In May, it delivered the strongest performance since 1990 and the biggest monthly gain since November 2023.
Buoyed by this turnaround, a growing number of Wall Street strategists have turned bullish in recent weeks. Several firms have raised their year-end S&P 500 targets to the 6,300–6,500 range, reflecting renewed confidence in the market’s outlook for the second half of 2025.
Newmont (NEM - Free Report) , having a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), is one of the best-performing stocks of the first half. The stock saw a positive earnings estimate revision of 5 cents for this year over the past month, with an estimated growth rate of 20.1%. Newmont has a VGM Score of A, indicating that it is poised for more gains ahead. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
NVDA vs. MSFT: The Trillion-Dollar Market Cap Battle Heats Up
The race for the title of the world’s most valuable publicly traded company has intensified in 2025, with NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) and Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) locked in a high-stakes battle for market cap supremacy. Fueled by the explosive growth of artificial intelligence, the rivalry has captured Wall Street’s full attention and is reshaping the tech landscape in real time.
As of June 18, Microsoft held a slight lead with a market capitalization exceeding $3.57 trillion. Its ascent was driven by robust cloud expansion, deepening AI integrations through its partnership with OpenAI, and continued dominance in the enterprise software space. NVIDIA, meanwhile, is capitalizing on an unprecedented demand cycle for its AI chips, rapidly scaling sales of its GPUs that power the very heart of AI computing. Since bottoming at just over $94 in early April, NVDA stock has added more than $1 trillion in market value. Growth-focused traders are flocking to NVIDIA for its unprecedented AI chip momentum, high margins and dominant position in next-gen computing.
In essence, NVIDIA may be building the engine of the AI revolution, but Microsoft is constructing the operating system around it. Azure continues to be one of the fastest-growing cloud platforms globally, while Microsoft 365 and Teams have become indispensable tools in the modern digital workplace. Microsoft and NVIDIA have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each.
Gold Set to Shine Further
Gold stocks have surged in popularity this year, driven by a flight to safety amid growing global uncertainty. Investors are turning to the precious metal to shield their portfolios from the disruptive impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade and rising concerns of an economic slowdown. Gold recently soared to a new all-time high, topping $3,400 per ounce last month.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East—particularly the Israel-Iran conflict—have intensified safe-haven demand, pushing both gold prices and gold-related equities higher. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar and continued central bank accumulation have further fueled gold’s rally. Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold could climb to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the metal and gold stocks.
Among the potential beneficiaries is AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU - Free Report) , a global gold mining company with operations across Africa, the Americas and Australia. The company has seen a solid earnings estimate revision of 60 cents over the past 30 days for this year, with an estimated growth of 122.1%. Despite more than doubling year to date, AngloGold remains attractively valued, trading at a P/E ratio of 9.80 compared with the industry average of 3.26. The stock sports a Zacks Rank #1 and has a VGM Score of A, underscoring its compelling investment potential amid the ongoing gold rally.