We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Is Recovery in Big-Ticket Demand the Key to HD's Next Growth Leg?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
HD's Q1 big-ticket sales rose just 0.3%, dragging comps down 0.3% as large projects remain subdued.
High interest rates continue to suppress demand for HD's kitchen, bath and exterior remodel categories.
HD's financing tools, SRS acquisition and high in-stock rates aim to capture future big-ticket recovery.
Although The Home Depot Inc. (HD - Free Report) has seen continued strength in its smaller-scale DIY and maintenance projects like appliances, building materials and lumber, the missing catalyst for sustained top-line acceleration lies in the revival of big-ticket remodel and renovation spend. Home Depot continues to see soft engagement for big-ticket discretionary categories (those exceeding $1,000 in ticket value), such as kitchen and bath remodels, as higher interest rates discouraged financing-dependent projects. A revival in these big-ticket home improvement projects is widely seen as the next inflection point for Home Depot’s growth.
Big-ticket sales, often a barometer of remodeling demand, grew just 0.3% in first-quarter fiscal 2025. Backed by this slowdown, the company’s overall comparable sales (comps) declined 0.3%, with U.S. comps up just 0.2%. Given that big-ticket categories like kitchen, bath and major exterior remodels can represent 10-15% of total ticket sales, even a modest rebound can translate into hundreds of millions in incremental revenues.
With no major improvement expected in interest rates or housing turnover in 2025, the company anticipates continued pressure on big-ticket renovations, such as kitchen and bath remodels. While Pro sales have been strong, the shift in consumer spending toward smaller-scale repairs and maintenance projects suggests that larger project demand may not rebound meaningfully in the near term, limiting growth potential in high-margin categories.
However, Home Depot has been hard at work, positioning itself to capture this spending surge. Through its SRS acquisition and trade-credit rollout, the company offers financing options to thousands of pros, while streamlined digital and in-store lending tools make qualifying for consumer project loans easier. With in-stock rates for building materials and fixtures at record highs, Home Depot is ensuring that when rates soften, it can fulfill large orders without delay.
Ultimately, the degree to which big-ticket demand recovers will set the pace for Home Depot’s next growth leg. Investors should monitor interest-rate trends, especially any drop below the current 7% mortgage norms, and early signs of increased financed project activity. Sustained acceleration in large-scale remodels can unlock a significant multiplier effect, driving both comp transactions and average ticket size well above the recent levels.
Home Depot’s Key Competitiors
D's primary competitors, Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW - Free Report) and Walmart Inc. (WMT - Free Report) , are also grappling with headwinds from muted demand in big-ticket categories. Like Home Depot, both retailers are seeing cautious consumer behavior, particularly in discretionary, high-value purchases such as appliances and home upgrades.
Lowe’s big-ticket sales, those above $500, also remained soft in first-quarter fiscal 2025, particularly in appliances and outdoor living, reflecting continued consumer caution on large discretionary purchases. These high-value transactions are significant drivers of Lowe’s overall revenues, especially in project-based categories like kitchens, flooring and bathroom remodels. Like Home Depot, Lowe’s big-ticket business is closely tied to broader housing trends and interest rate movements. Both retailers rely on a mix of DIY and Pro customers, and are positioned to benefit from a rebound in financed renovation activity. A recovery in big-ticket demand would be a critical tailwind for Lowe’s, potentially reigniting comps and supporting its Total Home strategy.
Walmart’s big-ticket discretionary sales have been soft, particularly in electronics, appliances and home goods, as inflation-sensitive consumers prioritize essentials over discretionary spending. Unlike Home Depot, Walmart’s overall business is less dependent on big-ticket items, with a larger portion of its revenues driven by groceries and everyday essentials. However, both companies face similar challenges in the big-ticket space, including cautious consumer sentiment and deferred purchases due to high interest rates. Walmart has responded by sharpening price points and emphasizing value, a strategy that mirrors Home Depot’s efforts to maintain competitiveness in large-scale project categories. While big-ticket items make up a smaller share of Walmart’s total sales, a rebound in this segment can still provide meaningful upside, particularly for its general merchandise division.
The Zacks Rundown for Home Depot
HD shares have lost 10.8% year to date compared with the industry’s decline of 13.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Home Depot trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.31X, significantly higher than the industry’s 19.68X. It has a VGM Score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HD’s fiscal 2025 earnings implies a year-over-year decline of 1.3%, whereas its fiscal 2026 earnings estimates indicate year-over-year growth of 9.2%. The estimate for fiscal 2025 has been northbound in the past 30 days, while that for fiscal 2026 EPS has moved south in the same period.
Image: Bigstock
Is Recovery in Big-Ticket Demand the Key to HD's Next Growth Leg?
Key Takeaways
Although The Home Depot Inc. (HD - Free Report) has seen continued strength in its smaller-scale DIY and maintenance projects like appliances, building materials and lumber, the missing catalyst for sustained top-line acceleration lies in the revival of big-ticket remodel and renovation spend. Home Depot continues to see soft engagement for big-ticket discretionary categories (those exceeding $1,000 in ticket value), such as kitchen and bath remodels, as higher interest rates discouraged financing-dependent projects. A revival in these big-ticket home improvement projects is widely seen as the next inflection point for Home Depot’s growth.
Big-ticket sales, often a barometer of remodeling demand, grew just 0.3% in first-quarter fiscal 2025. Backed by this slowdown, the company’s overall comparable sales (comps) declined 0.3%, with U.S. comps up just 0.2%. Given that big-ticket categories like kitchen, bath and major exterior remodels can represent 10-15% of total ticket sales, even a modest rebound can translate into hundreds of millions in incremental revenues.
With no major improvement expected in interest rates or housing turnover in 2025, the company anticipates continued pressure on big-ticket renovations, such as kitchen and bath remodels. While Pro sales have been strong, the shift in consumer spending toward smaller-scale repairs and maintenance projects suggests that larger project demand may not rebound meaningfully in the near term, limiting growth potential in high-margin categories.
However, Home Depot has been hard at work, positioning itself to capture this spending surge. Through its SRS acquisition and trade-credit rollout, the company offers financing options to thousands of pros, while streamlined digital and in-store lending tools make qualifying for consumer project loans easier. With in-stock rates for building materials and fixtures at record highs, Home Depot is ensuring that when rates soften, it can fulfill large orders without delay.
Ultimately, the degree to which big-ticket demand recovers will set the pace for Home Depot’s next growth leg. Investors should monitor interest-rate trends, especially any drop below the current 7% mortgage norms, and early signs of increased financed project activity. Sustained acceleration in large-scale remodels can unlock a significant multiplier effect, driving both comp transactions and average ticket size well above the recent levels.
Home Depot’s Key Competitiors
D's primary competitors, Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW - Free Report) and Walmart Inc. (WMT - Free Report) , are also grappling with headwinds from muted demand in big-ticket categories. Like Home Depot, both retailers are seeing cautious consumer behavior, particularly in discretionary, high-value purchases such as appliances and home upgrades.
Lowe’s big-ticket sales, those above $500, also remained soft in first-quarter fiscal 2025, particularly in appliances and outdoor living, reflecting continued consumer caution on large discretionary purchases. These high-value transactions are significant drivers of Lowe’s overall revenues, especially in project-based categories like kitchens, flooring and bathroom remodels. Like Home Depot, Lowe’s big-ticket business is closely tied to broader housing trends and interest rate movements. Both retailers rely on a mix of DIY and Pro customers, and are positioned to benefit from a rebound in financed renovation activity. A recovery in big-ticket demand would be a critical tailwind for Lowe’s, potentially reigniting comps and supporting its Total Home strategy.
Walmart’s big-ticket discretionary sales have been soft, particularly in electronics, appliances and home goods, as inflation-sensitive consumers prioritize essentials over discretionary spending. Unlike Home Depot, Walmart’s overall business is less dependent on big-ticket items, with a larger portion of its revenues driven by groceries and everyday essentials. However, both companies face similar challenges in the big-ticket space, including cautious consumer sentiment and deferred purchases due to high interest rates. Walmart has responded by sharpening price points and emphasizing value, a strategy that mirrors Home Depot’s efforts to maintain competitiveness in large-scale project categories. While big-ticket items make up a smaller share of Walmart’s total sales, a rebound in this segment can still provide meaningful upside, particularly for its general merchandise division.
The Zacks Rundown for Home Depot
HD shares have lost 10.8% year to date compared with the industry’s decline of 13.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Home Depot trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.31X, significantly higher than the industry’s 19.68X. It has a VGM Score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HD’s fiscal 2025 earnings implies a year-over-year decline of 1.3%, whereas its fiscal 2026 earnings estimates indicate year-over-year growth of 9.2%. The estimate for fiscal 2025 has been northbound in the past 30 days, while that for fiscal 2026 EPS has moved south in the same period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Home Depot currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.