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Ceasefire Between Israel and Iran? ETFs Likely to Gain

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U.S. stock futures rose in the evening of June 23, after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, effectively ending what he called "THE 12 DAY WAR." In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump confirmed that both countries had "fully agreed" to a complete and total ceasefire.

Trump praised both nations for reaching a resolution. Earlier in the day, he thanked Iran for providing an early warning of its retaliatory missile strike on a U.S. military base in Qatar, describing it as a “very weak response.” However, Israel defense minister accused Iran of violating ceasefire and ordered ‘powerful strikes’ on Tehran.

Investor sentiment improved markedly on Monday, with Wall Street rallying and oil prices plunging. West Texas Intermediate crude oil dropped nearly 9% on Monday due to ceasefire news, settling around $67 per barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, also sank nearly 9% to around $70 per barrel.

Oil Price Shock Averted, Strait of Hormuz Remains Open

Before Iran’s retaliation, there had been growing concern about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil flow. JPMorgan analysts had warned that such a scenario could push oil prices to between $120 and $130 per barrel.

With that worst-case outcome now appearing unlikely, markets have turned cautiously optimistic.

ETFs Likely to Gain

Below, we highlight a few exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are likely to gain in the coming days if the ceasefire holds.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT - Free Report)

Bitcoin plunged considerably on news of escalating tensions in Iran. Now, with the ceasefire in place, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are expected to turn around and benefit ETFs like IBIT (read: Bitcoin Plunges Below $100K: Time to Buy the Dip?).

iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM - Free Report)

The MSCI USA Momentum SR Variant Index measures the performance of U.S. large and mid-capitalization stocks exhibiting relatively higher momentum characteristics.Momentum investing looks to capture profits from buying hot stocks, which have shown an uptrend over a few weeks or months.

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY - Free Report)

If oil prices continue to decline, consumers’ ability to spend on discretionary items will increase. This trend should benefit ETFs like XLY (read: U.S. Strikes Iranian Nuclear Sites: Sector ETFs to Win/Lose).

U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS - Free Report)

The airline sector performs better in a falling crude scenario. This is especially true as energy costs form a major portion of the overall costs of this sector. So, lower crude prices are likely to boost the earnings of airline companies hard.

Plus, any kind of ceasefire in war is a plus for the airlines’ operations, as airlines do not have to reroute their flights to avoid the conflict zone airspace. Note that the Iran-Israel tensions have disrupted air travel so far.


 

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