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Cabot (COG) Up 2.9% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation . Shares have added about 2.9% in that time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Fourth-Quarter 2016 Results

Cabot reported fourth quarter earnings per share – adjusted for special items – of $0.01, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate but compared favorably with the year-ago quarter adjusted loss of $0.02.

The exploration and production firm’s results were hamstrung by higher costs but received a kick from higher production.

Cabot’s quarterly revenue improved 13% year-over-year to $316.5 million but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $356 million.
 
Volume Analysis

Cabot’s overall production during the quarter totaled 164.2 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) – 97% gas – up 9% from the prior year quarter volume of 151.0 Bcfe. Natural gas output was 158.6 Bcf, while liquids production came in at 929.2 thousand barrels (MBbl).

Realized Prices

The average realized natural gas price was remained unchanged from the year-ago quarter at $1.94 per thousand cubic feet, while average crude/condensate price realization rose 14% to $42.94 per barrel. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids fetched $13.84 per barrel as against $11.69 a year back.

Costs & Expenses

Total operating expenses were 72% higher than the fourth quarter of 2015, rising to $756.2 million. In particular, transportation and gathering costs were up 7% year-over-year to $113.7 million, oil and gas property write-offs jumped almost threefold to $435.6 million. However, Cabot’s depreciation, depletion and amortization expenses was down by 6% from the year-ago period to $141.2 million.

Drilling Statistics, Capital Expenditure & Balance Sheet

Cabot drilled 10 net wells and completed 25 during the quarter. Operating cash flows were $139.7 million for the quarter (down 10% year-over-year), while capital expenditures totaled $130.1 million (down 4%). As of Dec 31, 2016, the company had $1,520.5 million in long-term debt (excluding current portion), with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 37.2%.

Proved Reserves

As of year-end 2016, the company had 8.6 trillion cubic feet equivalent in proved reserves (up 5% from 2015 and 97% natural gas).

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. There have been three revisions higher for the current quarter compared to two lower.

VGM Scores

At this time, Cabot's stock has a nice Growth Score of 'B', though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with an 'F'. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of 'D' on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, stocks has an aggregate VGM Score of 'D'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

The company's stock is suitable solely for growth based on our styles scores.

Outlook

While estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, the magnitude of these revisions is net zero. Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.

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