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NOMD vs. LW: Which Frozen Food Stock is Poised to Lead the Market?
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Key Takeaways
NOMD saw 36% sales growth in 1Q in innovation-led categories and market share gains in Germany and the U.K.
LW reported 9% volume growth in 3Q but faces margin pressure from weak pricing and higher inventory costs.
NOMD's diversified product mix and price discipline contributed to its stronger performance versus peers.
Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD - Free Report) and Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (LW - Free Report) are leading forces in the global frozen foods sector, but they take markedly different approaches to growth, operations, and market strategy. Nomad Foods dominates the European frozen aisle with a broad portfolio of branded products such as Birds Eye, Iglo, and Findus, focusing on health-forward meals, vegetables, and seafood that cater to value-conscious and nutritionally aware consumers. In contrast, Lamb Weston has built a powerhouse around frozen potato products, fries and appetizers, serving foodservice giants and quick-service restaurants (QSRs), primarily across North America and selected global markets.
Despite this divergence in brand architecture and geographic footprint, both companies are reshaping the frozen food landscape. They are responding to changing consumer behaviors, inflationary pressures, and supply chain complexity through innovation, restructuring, and digital capabilities. NOMD continues to invest in brand equity and innovation platforms, while LW is executing a sweeping enterprise-wide transformation to boost profitability and agility. As macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting demand patterns pressure the industry, investors face a pivotal question: Which company offers a stronger long-term value proposition in the frozen foods market?
The Case for NOMD Stock
Nomad Foods is leveraging its extensive branded portfolio to capture growth in key European markets while maintaining a disciplined and health-centric approach to product development. In the last earnings call, the company noted that nearly two-thirds of its revenue comes from lean proteins and vegetables, with 94% of its sales in the U.K. and Western Europe classified as healthy meals under U.K. government standards, positioning NOMD strongly in line with long-term nutritional and sustainability trends.
In the first quarter of 2025, despite a 3.6% organic sales decline due to broad retailer inventory destocking, Nomad Foods posted modest retail sell-through growth and improved gross margins, driven by overhead efficiencies and supply chain gains.
Its investment in high-growth platforms is yielding results: a 36% year-over-year increase in the first quarter in sales across innovation-led categories like chicken and frozen chips, including market share gains in Germany and the UK. NOMD is also doubling down on its must-win battles, particularly fish, which accounts for one-third of total revenue and delivers high margins.
Marketing, merchandising, and innovation are tightly integrated through its commercial flywheel, ensuring relevance with evolving consumer preferences and expanding reach into higher-income, younger demographics. Notably, Nomad Foods Fish Bar sub-brand in Italy has successfully repositioned fish as a snackable meal, helping drive 9% sales growth in the first quarter and increase category penetration.
With a focus on resilient brands, disciplined capital allocation and an expanding innovation pipeline, NOMD is positioned to outperform in a stable, high-demand sector. While growth may be choppy in the short term due to macro headwinds, its brand equity, product quality, and pricing power underpin long-term value. Nomad Foods is signaling relative stability and investor confidence in its growth trajectory.
The Case for LW Stock
Lamb Weston, a specialist in frozen potatoes, operates at a massive scale and maintains deep relationships with global QSRs and foodservice distributors. Its business is concentrated, with roughly 85% of North American revenue linked to food-away-from-home channels, especially hamburger-focused QSRs.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, LW posted 9% volume growth and 4% sales growth, but price/mix declined 5% due to aggressive pricing strategies in a competitive market. While volume recovery post-ERP transition was encouraging, the company is navigating weakened restaurant traffic, particularly in North America and key international markets like the U.K. and France.
To adapt, LW is undertaking a company-wide transformation with a value creation plan developed in partnership with AlixPartners, targeting $55 million in pretax savings in fiscal 2025 and $85 million in fiscal 2026. Over 30 projects, from logistics optimization to capacity realignment, are currently underway.
The company has also introduced innovative products like fridge-friendly fries and premium potato bites to align with shifting consumer preferences. However, margin pressures remain elevated due to unfavorable price/mix, increased transportation and warehousing costs driven by higher inventory levels, and rising depreciation expenses tied to recent capacity expansions.
Despite these strategic initiatives, Lamb Weston’s near-term outlook remains clouded. International pricing is under pressure, inventory levels remain high, and cost challenges persist. While the long-term plan is comprehensive, execution risk is non-trivial. LW is reflecting caution around its short-term earnings momentum and macro sensitivity.
How Does the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for NOMD & LW?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nomad Foods’ earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be $2.07, unchanged over the past 30 days and suggesting year-over-year growth of 7.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In comparison, Lamb Weston’s fiscal 2025 EPS estimate remains at $3.14, also unchanged in the past 30 days, but reflects a significant projected decline of 38.2% compared to the prior year. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation & Price Performance of NOMD & LW
Nomad Foods currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 8.05x, which is below the Zacks Food – Miscellaneous industry average of 15.83x, suggesting a reasonable valuation given its strong fundamentals. In contrast, Lamb Weston trades at a higher multiple of 15.59x, positioning NOMD as the more value-oriented option between the two.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of stock performance, Nomad Foods has clearly outperformed, posting a 5.9% gain over the past six months against a 13.9% decline for Lamb Weston and a 3% drop for the industry. This strength, combined with its lower valuation and positive earnings trajectory, positions NOMD as a more compelling investment opportunity, offering both value and resilience in a challenging market environment.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NOMD Looks Like the Smarter Frozen Food Play for Now
Nomad Foods and Lamb Weston are both navigating an evolving frozen foods industry through strategic transformation and innovation. However, Nomad Foods emerges as the stronger contender, backed by consistent execution, a diversified and health-aligned product portfolio, and solid market share gains across key European regions. The company is leveraging brand equity and operational efficiency to drive growth, while maintaining attractive valuation levels and delivering stable earnings projections.
Adding to its investment appeal, Nomad Foods’ stock has shown resilience, outperforming both its peer and the broader industry, with earnings momentum and valuation metrics aligning in its favor. For investors seeking value, steady performance, and long-term potential, NOMD is a more compelling choice in today’s market environment. Nomad Foods currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), while Lamb Weston holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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NOMD vs. LW: Which Frozen Food Stock is Poised to Lead the Market?
Key Takeaways
Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD - Free Report) and Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (LW - Free Report) are leading forces in the global frozen foods sector, but they take markedly different approaches to growth, operations, and market strategy. Nomad Foods dominates the European frozen aisle with a broad portfolio of branded products such as Birds Eye, Iglo, and Findus, focusing on health-forward meals, vegetables, and seafood that cater to value-conscious and nutritionally aware consumers. In contrast, Lamb Weston has built a powerhouse around frozen potato products, fries and appetizers, serving foodservice giants and quick-service restaurants (QSRs), primarily across North America and selected global markets.
Despite this divergence in brand architecture and geographic footprint, both companies are reshaping the frozen food landscape. They are responding to changing consumer behaviors, inflationary pressures, and supply chain complexity through innovation, restructuring, and digital capabilities. NOMD continues to invest in brand equity and innovation platforms, while LW is executing a sweeping enterprise-wide transformation to boost profitability and agility. As macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting demand patterns pressure the industry, investors face a pivotal question: Which company offers a stronger long-term value proposition in the frozen foods market?
The Case for NOMD Stock
Nomad Foods is leveraging its extensive branded portfolio to capture growth in key European markets while maintaining a disciplined and health-centric approach to product development. In the last earnings call, the company noted that nearly two-thirds of its revenue comes from lean proteins and vegetables, with 94% of its sales in the U.K. and Western Europe classified as healthy meals under U.K. government standards, positioning NOMD strongly in line with long-term nutritional and sustainability trends.
In the first quarter of 2025, despite a 3.6% organic sales decline due to broad retailer inventory destocking, Nomad Foods posted modest retail sell-through growth and improved gross margins, driven by overhead efficiencies and supply chain gains.
Its investment in high-growth platforms is yielding results: a 36% year-over-year increase in the first quarter in sales across innovation-led categories like chicken and frozen chips, including market share gains in Germany and the UK. NOMD is also doubling down on its must-win battles, particularly fish, which accounts for one-third of total revenue and delivers high margins.
Marketing, merchandising, and innovation are tightly integrated through its commercial flywheel, ensuring relevance with evolving consumer preferences and expanding reach into higher-income, younger demographics. Notably, Nomad Foods Fish Bar sub-brand in Italy has successfully repositioned fish as a snackable meal, helping drive 9% sales growth in the first quarter and increase category penetration.
With a focus on resilient brands, disciplined capital allocation and an expanding innovation pipeline, NOMD is positioned to outperform in a stable, high-demand sector. While growth may be choppy in the short term due to macro headwinds, its brand equity, product quality, and pricing power underpin long-term value. Nomad Foods is signaling relative stability and investor confidence in its growth trajectory.
The Case for LW Stock
Lamb Weston, a specialist in frozen potatoes, operates at a massive scale and maintains deep relationships with global QSRs and foodservice distributors. Its business is concentrated, with roughly 85% of North American revenue linked to food-away-from-home channels, especially hamburger-focused QSRs.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, LW posted 9% volume growth and 4% sales growth, but price/mix declined 5% due to aggressive pricing strategies in a competitive market. While volume recovery post-ERP transition was encouraging, the company is navigating weakened restaurant traffic, particularly in North America and key international markets like the U.K. and France.
To adapt, LW is undertaking a company-wide transformation with a value creation plan developed in partnership with AlixPartners, targeting $55 million in pretax savings in fiscal 2025 and $85 million in fiscal 2026. Over 30 projects, from logistics optimization to capacity realignment, are currently underway.
The company has also introduced innovative products like fridge-friendly fries and premium potato bites to align with shifting consumer preferences. However, margin pressures remain elevated due to unfavorable price/mix, increased transportation and warehousing costs driven by higher inventory levels, and rising depreciation expenses tied to recent capacity expansions.
Despite these strategic initiatives, Lamb Weston’s near-term outlook remains clouded. International pricing is under pressure, inventory levels remain high, and cost challenges persist. While the long-term plan is comprehensive, execution risk is non-trivial. LW is reflecting caution around its short-term earnings momentum and macro sensitivity.
How Does the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for NOMD & LW?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nomad Foods’ earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be $2.07, unchanged over the past 30 days and suggesting year-over-year growth of 7.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In comparison, Lamb Weston’s fiscal 2025 EPS estimate remains at $3.14, also unchanged in the past 30 days, but reflects a significant projected decline of 38.2% compared to the prior year. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation & Price Performance of NOMD & LW
Nomad Foods currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 8.05x, which is below the Zacks Food – Miscellaneous industry average of 15.83x, suggesting a reasonable valuation given its strong fundamentals. In contrast, Lamb Weston trades at a higher multiple of 15.59x, positioning NOMD as the more value-oriented option between the two.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of stock performance, Nomad Foods has clearly outperformed, posting a 5.9% gain over the past six months against a 13.9% decline for Lamb Weston and a 3% drop for the industry. This strength, combined with its lower valuation and positive earnings trajectory, positions NOMD as a more compelling investment opportunity, offering both value and resilience in a challenging market environment.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NOMD Looks Like the Smarter Frozen Food Play for Now
Nomad Foods and Lamb Weston are both navigating an evolving frozen foods industry through strategic transformation and innovation. However, Nomad Foods emerges as the stronger contender, backed by consistent execution, a diversified and health-aligned product portfolio, and solid market share gains across key European regions. The company is leveraging brand equity and operational efficiency to drive growth, while maintaining attractive valuation levels and delivering stable earnings projections.
Adding to its investment appeal, Nomad Foods’ stock has shown resilience, outperforming both its peer and the broader industry, with earnings momentum and valuation metrics aligning in its favor. For investors seeking value, steady performance, and long-term potential, NOMD is a more compelling choice in today’s market environment. Nomad Foods currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), while Lamb Weston holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.