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Theravance (TBPH) Up 17.5% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Theravance Biopharma, Inc. (TBPH - Free Report) . Shares have added about 17.5% in that time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock’s next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Theravance Fourth-Quarter Loss Wider than Expected; Revenues Beat

Theravance Biopharma reported fourth-quarter 2016 loss of $1.36 per share, much wider than both the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.07 and the year-ago loss of $1.23.

Total revenue in the quarter surged 46.2% year over year to $5.7 million mostly from U.S. net product sales of Vibativ (telavancin). Reported revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14%.

Quarterly Details

Theravance’s sole marketed product, Vibativ, generated U.S. revenues of $5 million in the fourth quarter, up 27.5% from the year-ago period. However, the figure decreased 28.2% sequentially due to the impact of seasonality.

Revenues from collaborations were $0.66 million compared with $0.2 million in the year-ago quarter.

Research and development expenses were $42 million, up 29.6% from the year-ago period. This was mainly due costs associated with the advancement of the company’s priority pipeline programs.

Selling, general & administrative expenses, on the other hand, declined 15.4% to $20.4 million. This was primarily due to lower costs associated with share-based compensation expenses and lower external sales and marketing expenses.

2016 Results

Full-year sales increased 15.4% year over year to $48.6 million. Sales narrowly beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $48.3 million.

Full-year loss of $4.26 per share was significantly wider than Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $3.78. The company had posted loss of $5.34 per share a year ago.

2017 Outlook

Theravance expects operating loss (excluding share-based compensation) in the range of $195.0 to $205.0 million in 2017.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There have been two downward revisions for the current quarter. In the past month, the consensus estimate also shifted downward by 10.4% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Theravance's stock has a subpar Growth Score of 'D', though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with an 'F'. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated also a grade of 'F' on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'F'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Our style scores indicate investors will probably be better served looking elsewhere.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of these revisions also indicates a downward shift. Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stocks in the next few months.


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