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Maxwell (MXWL) Up 8.7% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Maxwell Technologies, Inc. . Shares have added about 8.7% in that time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock’s next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Maxwell Q4 Loss Wider than Expected, Revenues Beat

Maxwell Technologies incurred adjusted loss of 28 cents per share in the fourth-quarter of 2016 (considering stock-based compensation as a regular expense), wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.21 by 33.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the quarterly loss widened from the year-ago loss of $0.02 per share.

Excluding one-time items, the company reported loss of $0.38 per share, substantially wider than the loss of $0.07 incurred in the prior-year quarter.

During 2016, the company incurred adjusted loss of $0.84 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.60 by 40%. The full-year adjusted loss figure was also wider than the year-ago loss of $0.48 per share.

Revenues

Maxwell Technologies’ fourth-quarter revenues of $26.4 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $26.1 million by 1.3%. However, revenues plunged 47% from the year-ago figure of $49.8 million. High voltage revenues grew 53.6% in the fourth quarter, whereas ultracapacitor revenues declined 65.9%, resulting in the decrease in total revenue.

In 2016, the company’s revenues of $121.2 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $120.7 million by 0.4%. Full-year revenues, however, declined 27.6% year over year from $167.4 million at year-end 2015.

Operational Highlights

In the quarter under review, the company’s cost of revenue was $20.7 million, down 41.8% year over year.

Total operating expenses were $15.6 million in the quarter (or 59.1% of revenues) compared with $15.8 million (or 31.7% of revenues) in the prior-year quarter.

Financial Condition

As of Dec 31, 2016, Maxwell Technologies had cash and cash equivalents of $25.4 million compared with $24.4 million as of Dec 31, 2015.

As of Dec 31, 2016, long-term debt (excluding current portion) was $0.04 million as against $0.05 million as of Dec 31, 2015.

Guidance

Maxwell expects total revenue in the range of $25–$27 million in the first quarter of 2017. Adjusted gross margin is expected to be 20–24%. Adjusted operating expenses are projected in the range of $12.4–$12.8 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There has been one downward revision for the current quarter. In the past month, the consensus estimate also shifted downward by 22.7% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Maxwell's stock has a subpar Growth Score of 'D', however its momentum is doing a lot better with a 'B'. However, the stock was allocated a grade of 'F' on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'F'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

The company's stock is suitable solely for momentum based on our styles scores.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of this revision also indicates a downward shift. Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We are expecting an above average return from the stockin the next few months.

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