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Suncor Energy (SU) Down 4.9% Since Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Suncor Energy Inc. (SU - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.9% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Fourth Quarter 2016 Results

Suncor Energy reported fourth-quarter 2016 operating earnings per share of $0.29, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.21. The company had posted earnings of $0.02 per share in the year-ago comparable quarter. Strong upstream production, lower operating costs and record crude throughput led to the outperformance.

Moreover, quarterly revenues of U.S$6.2 billion increased from U.S$4.9 billion in the year-ago quarter. Also, the top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of U.S$5.8 billion.

Suncor recorded quarterly operating earnings of C$636 million. The company had incurred an operating loss of C$26 million in the year-ago quarter. Moreover, cash flow from operations increased to C$2,365 million from C$1,294 million in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Production

Total upstream production in the reported quarter was 738,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), up 26.7% from the prior-year level of 582,900 BOE/d.

Oil Sands operations volume was 433,400 barrels per day (Bbl/d) as against 439,700 Bbl/d in the year-ago quarter.

Production from Syncrude operations was 187,000 Bbl/d in the quarter compared with 30,900 Bbl/d in the year-earlier quarter.

Suncor’s Exploration and Production segment (consisting of International and Offshore and Natural Gas segments) produced 118,100 BOE/d. The segment had produced 112,300 BOE/d in the prior-year quarter.

Refinery utilization came in at 93%, flat with the year-ago quarter figure.

Product Sales

The company’s refined product sales of 514,800 Bbl/d increased from the prior-year quarter level of 501,200 Bbl/d.

Balance Sheet & Capital Expenditure

As of Dec 31, 2016, Suncor had cash and cash equivalents of C$3 billion and total long-term debt (including current portions) of C$16.2 billion. The total debt-to-capitalization ratio was approximately 28.1%. The company incurred capital expenditure of C$1.6 billion in the quarter.

Dividend Increase

Suncor Energy boosted its quarterly dividend to C$0.32 per share on its common shares from the previous dividend of C$0.29 per share, thereby reflecting the company's commitment and ability to generate steady cash flow and return cash to shareholders in poor market conditions. This dividend is payable on Mar 24, to shareholders on record at the close of business on Mar 3, 2017.

Guidance

Suncor’s 2017 capital spending projection is C$4.8–C$5.2 billion.

The company’s estimated total production in 2017 in the range of 680,000–720,000 BOE/d. Suncor projected Oil Sands sales is in the band of 420,000–450,000 Bbl/d in 2017.

Refinery throughput is expected in the range of 425,000–445,000Bbl/d. Refined products sales are anticipated in the 515,000–545,000Bbl/d band.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last one month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

Suncor Energy Inc. Price and Consensus

 

Suncor Energy Inc. Price and Consensus | Suncor Energy Inc. Quote

VGM Scores

At this time, Suncor Energy's stock has a nice score of 'B' on growth and momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of 'C' on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'B'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Based on our scores, the stock is more suitable for growth and momentum investors than value investors.

Outlook

The stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.


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