Back to top

Image: Shutterstock

Will CAKE's Pricing Discipline Help Offset Inflation Woes in 2025?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Key Takeaways

  • CAKE's Q1 same-store sales rose 1%, reversing a 0.6% decline from the prior-year quarter.
  • The gain was driven by a 2.2% average check increase, helped by a 4.4% menu price hike.
  • Targeted pricing, cost controls and digital efforts support growth without broad discounting.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated ((CAKE - Free Report) ) continues to take a measured approach to pricing, applying targeted increases rather than broad adjustments. This strategy appears to be working, helping the company protect traffic levels while gradually lifting average check. In a cautious consumer environment, this balance between value and pricing remains critical.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, same-store sales at Cheesecake Factory restaurants rose 1% year over year, reversing a 0.6% decline in the prior-year quarter. The improvement was largely driven by a 2.2% increase in average check, supported by a 4.4% rise in menu pricing. Despite these pricing actions, management indicated that guest feedback remained favorable, implying consumers are still responding well to the brand’s value proposition.

While labor and other non-controllable costs remain elevated, the company continues to lean on execution and efficiency to manage expenses without passing on excessive costs to diners. Importantly, the gains in comps signal that selective pricing, paired with operational improvements and guest engagement, is beginning to yield results.

In the current environment, where consumers remain price-conscious, CAKE’s ability to drive modest comp growth without aggressive promotions or deep discounts highlights the effectiveness of its pricing strategy and brand positioning. CAKE is also refining its promotional approach, shifting toward more targeted offers rather than broad discounts. The company’s growing loyalty program and digital marketing investments are expected to play a larger role in driving guest frequency and spend moving forward.

How Competitors are Using Pricing to Support Sales & Guest Trends

Pricing remains a key lever across the casual dining space, with both Brinker International, Inc. ((EAT - Free Report) ) and Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ((CBRL - Free Report) ) adopting strategies to drive comparable sales and navigate cost pressures.

Brinker is benefiting from increased menu pricing and thoughtful menu adjustments that support both traffic and mix. In the fiscal third quarter, revenues in the Chili’s segment rose 30.5% year over year to $1.30 billion. This upside was backed by favorable comparable restaurant sales, driven by menu pricing, higher traffic and a favorable menu item mix. Maggiano’s also reported a slight year-over-year sales increase, supported by similar initiatives. Brinker continues to focus on promoting high-margin items while maintaining a competitive pricing strategy to support demand.

Cracker Barrel has also leaned on strategic pricing to support sales. In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, comparable-store restaurant sales increased 1% year over year, marking the fourth straight quarter of comp growth. The improvement was largely due to a 4.9% increase in menu pricing, which lifted the average check. Cracker Barrel’s barbell pricing strategy, balancing entry-level and premium options, has helped manage guest expectations while driving ticket growth. In the fiscal third quarter, labor and related expenses declined to 37.1% of revenues from 37.8% in the prior year. The reduction was mainly caused by menu pricing and improved productivity.

CAKE’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Cheesecake Factory’s shares have gained 43.6% in the past three months compared with the industry’s of 9.1% growth.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

From a valuation standpoint, CAKE trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.44X, significantly down from the industry’s 26.02X.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAKE’s fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year upticks of 6.4% and 10.7%, respectively. The estimate for 2025 has been unchanged in the past 30 days.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Cheesecake Factory currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Published in