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Can Coca-Cola Maintain Its Momentum Amid Flat North America Volumes?

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Key Takeaways

  • KO saw 6% organic revenue growth in 1Q25, driven by global price/mix strength and share gains.
  • North America volumes were soft amid weak Hispanic sentiment and calendar-related impacts.
  • KO's localization push and innovation, including Orange Cream and Simply Pop, support future growth.

Despite volume softness in North America, The Coca-Cola Company (KO - Free Report) continues to display its trademark resilience. The company delivered 6% year-over-year organic revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025, supported by strong price/mix execution and share gains across global markets. In North America, revenues and earnings increased year over year, but volumes lagged due to soft Hispanic consumer sentiment and calendar shifts.

Notably, brands like Coca-Cola Zero Sugar and fairlife have been growth pillars, with the latter continuing to add the most retail dollars to the U.S. beverage sector.

KO is taking swift action to reaccelerate growth, focusing on affordability, faster decision-making and hyperlocal marketing, particularly with its “Hecho en Mexico” and “Made in the USA” campaigns. The localization strategy is the key amid geopolitical tensions and anti-brand sentiment. Additionally, innovation remains strong, with launches like Simply Pop and Coca-Cola Orange Cream gaining early traction.

Coca-Cola’s all-weather strategy, powered by its $30 billion worth of brands and pervasive local distribution, positions it well to handle macro uncertainties. While short-term volume may remain choppy, especially in developed markets, KO’s long-term playbook, anchored in agility, innovation and consumer-centricity, makes it a compelling defensive growth stock for patient investors.

North America Playbook for KO’s Peers: PEP & MNST

Coca-Cola’s evolving North America playbook, anchored in agility, affordability and hyperlocal execution, offers key strategic cues for peers like PepsiCo Inc. (PEP - Free Report) and Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST - Free Report) as they navigate a similarly complex consumer landscape.

PEP’s North America strategy mirrors Coca-Cola in beverages, focusing on zero-sugar sodas, functional hydration and foodservice growth. In first-quarter 2025, its PepsiCo Beverages North America unit saw strong profit gains, while PepsiCo Foods faced headwinds. Growth is fueled by sharper revenue management, brand campaigns and acquisitions like poppi. Operational productivity, automation and digital tools underpin its push for long-term gains. While Coca-Cola leads in global beverage focus, PepsiCo’s strength in snacks gives it a broader consumer reach and margin resilience.

Monster Beverage’s North America performance in first-quarter 2025 faced short-term disruptions, including adverse weather and distributor order timing, but its core energy drink sales remained resilient. Excluding the Alcohol segment, North America sales rose 1.9% on a currency-adjusted basis, with standout innovation like Monster Energy Ultra Blue Hawaiian. The company is doubling down on household penetration and value-tier expansion with Predator and Fury. With a strong innovation pipeline and improved gross margins, Monster Beverage remains focused on driving sustained U.S. growth.

The Zacks Rundown for Coca-Cola

KO shares have rallied 12.8% year to date compared with the industry’s growth of 8.6%.

 

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From a valuation standpoint, Coca-Cola trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.71X, significantly higher than the industry’s 18.62X.

 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KO’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 3.1% and 8.2%, respectively. Earnings estimates for 2025 have been northbound in the past 30 days, whereas that for 2026 has been unchanged in the same period.

 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Coca-Cola currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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