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BAC Shares Lag Peers in First Half: Can it Regain Momentum?

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Key Takeaways

  • BAC rose just 7.6% in 1H 2025, underperforming peers JPMorgan and Citigroup, which surged more than 20%.
  • Despite headwinds, BAC expects NII to grow 6-7% in 2025, supported by loan demand and solid deposits.
  • BAC aims to boost its dividend by 8% to $0.28 per share starting Q3 2025 after passing the Fed's stress test.

Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) witnessed a modest 7.6% gain in the first half of 2025, trailing behind key industry peers. Citigroup (C - Free Report) and JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) surged 20.9% each over the same period, highlighting BAC’s relative underperformance.

1H 2025 Price Performance
 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

As one of the most interest rate-sensitive major banks, Bank of America’s net interest income (NII) got a boost when the Federal Reserve began cutting rates, easing deposit costs. However, in 2025, the central bank held rates steady amid uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and broader macro risks. With rates now expected to stay elevated longer, the company could face renewed pressure on deposit costs, limiting solid NII growth.

Nonetheless, Bank of America continues to see an upside in NII in 2025, driven by decent loan demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, robust deposit balance and solid economic growth.  The bank expects a sequential rise in NII for all the quarters this year. For 2025, it projects NII growth in the range of 6-7%. 

However, investors appear less convinced by these projections. Sentiments toward BAC have softened relative to peers like JPMorgan and Citigroup, reflecting skepticism about the bank’s ability to sustain NII momentum.

Bank of America: Other Major Factors to Consider

Branch Expansion & Digital Initiatives: Bank of America’s aggressive branch expansion across the United States as part of a broader strategy to solidify customer relationships and tap into new markets will drive NII growth over time. By 2027, it plans to expand its financial center network and open more than 150 centers. Of these, 40 are expected to be opened this year, and 70 more in 2026. The company also remains committed to providing modern and state-of-the-art financial centers through its ongoing renovation and modernization project.

Likewise, JPMorgan is doubling down on physical expansion to strengthen its competitive edge in relationship banking. In 2024, the company opened more than 150 new branches and remains on track to add 500 more by 2027. 

Over the past few years, BAC has been renovating and updating its existing financial centers across the country for clients to engage with financial specialists and ensure a consistent and modern experience across all centers. The bank's strategic investment in new financial centers and expansion into new markets reflects a broader industry shift toward optimizing branch networks to deepen customer relationships and tap into new business opportunities. In this competitive environment, the ability to blend digital convenience with in-person expertise is expected to give Bank of America long-term leverage in the evolving banking landscape.

The company plans to continue strengthening its technology initiatives and spend heavily on these. These efforts help it attract and retain customers and boost cross-selling opportunities.

Fortress Balance Sheet & Solid Liquidity: Bank of America’s liquidity profile remains solid. As of March 31, 2025, average global liquidity sources were $942 billion. Also, the company’s investment-grade long-term credit ratings of A1, A- and AA- from Moody’s, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, respectively, and a stable outlook facilitate easy access to the debt market.

BAC continues to reward shareholders handsomely. The company has cleared this year’s stress test conducted by the Fed and now plans to raise the dividend by 8% to 28 cents per share, beginning in the third quarter of 2025. In the last five years, it hiked dividends four times, with an annualized growth rate of 8.72%. 

Similarly, JPMorgan and Citigroup cleared their stress test and announced plans to increase quarterly dividends. JPMorgan intends to declare a quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share in the third quarter of 2025, representing a rise of 7% from the prior payout. Further, Citigroup announced a plan to increase its quarterly dividend by 7% to 60 cents per share.

Additionally, Bank of America has a share repurchase plan in place. In July 2024, the company authorized a $25 billion stock repurchase program, effective Aug. 1, 2024. As of March 31, 2025, almost $14.4 billion worth of buyback authorization remained available. The company intends to buy back shares worth nearly $4.5 billion every quarter in the near term.

Weak Investment Banking (IB) Business: As global deal-making came to a grinding halt at the beginning of 2022, it weighed substantially on Bank of America’s IB business. Though the company’s total IB fees plunged 45.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023, the trend reversed in 2024. Thus, the company’s IB fees soared 31.4% year over year. 

The anticipated solid rebound in mergers and acquisitions (M&As) following President Donald Trump’s re-election and expectations of favorable regulatory changes failed to materialize. Yet, BAC’s first-quarter 2025 performance was better than expected, with IB fees in the Global Banking division of $847 million relatively stable.

BAC expects IB fees to decline more than 20% year over year in the second quarter as tariff-related headwinds hampered deal-making sentiments. Likewise, JPMorgan’s IB fees are expected to be down in the mid-teens range. On the other hand, Citigroup projects second-quarter IB fees to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage on a year-over-year basis.

After the initial hiccup, deal-making activities are regaining momentum and many deals that were put on hold are now resuming as there is more certainty about the direction of the economy and tariff plans, with capital remaining available. This will act as a tailwind for Bank of America, JPMorgan and Citigroup, which generate billions in revenues from M&A advisory fees.

Deteriorating Asset Quality: Bank of America’s asset quality has been weakening. While the company recorded negative provisions in 2021, a substantial jump in provisions was recorded in the years after that because of the worsening macroeconomic outlook. The metric surged 115.4% in 2022, 72.8% in 2023 and 32.5% in 2024. Similarly, net charge-offs grew 74.9% in 2023 and 58.8% in 2024. The uptrend for both continued in the first quarter of 2025.

As interest rates are less likely to come down substantially in the near term, it is expected to hurt the borrowers’ credit profile. The company remains vigilant about the effects of continuous high rates and quantitative tightening on its loan portfolio. Also, the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be seen. Hence, the company’s asset quality is expected to remain subdued.

Unlocking Bank of America’s Valuation

Bank of America stock is currently trading at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 1.77X, which is below the industry’s 2.84X. This shows the stock is inexpensive.

Price-to-Tangible Book Ratio (TTM)
 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

BAC stock is inexpensive compared with JPMorgan, which has a P/TB of 3.00X. On the other hand, it is trading at a premium compared with Citigroup’s P/TB of 0.96X.

How to Approach Bank of America Stock Now?

Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for 2025 has moved marginally lower to $3.67. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for 2026 earnings has been revised slightly upward to $4.28. The consensus estimate for earnings indicates 11.9% and 16.8% growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively. 

Bank of America Earnings Estimates
 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Bank of America's global presence, diversified revenue streams, ongoing branch openings and relatively high interest rates, and technological innovations aimed at attracting and retaining customers provide a strong foundation for organic growth. Further, attractive valuation makes the stock a compelling option for investors.

However, BAC faces near-term challenges, including macroeconomic ambiguity because of the imposition of tariffs and its impact on interest rates. Subdued IB business performance and deteriorating asset quality are other concerns. So, investors must wait for clarity on macroeconomic issues before buying the stock, as analysts are also bearish on the near-term prospects. 

Those who own Bank of America stock can retain it for long-term gains. At present, the stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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