We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Can Mounjaro and Zepbound Drive Another Strong Quarter for Eli Lilly?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
Mounjaro and Zepbound drove $6.15 billion in Q1 sales, making up 48% of Eli Lilly's total revenues.
Q1 sales rebounded on stronger supply, international launches and new U.S. pricing strategies.
We forecast Q2 sales of $4.5 billion for Mounjaro and $3.1 billion for Zepbound on continued demand.
Demand for Eli Lilly’s (LLY - Free Report) blockbuster GLP-1 medicines — Mounjaro (for type II diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity) — remains strong. Despite being on the market for less than three years, both drugs have become the company’s key top-line drivers. In the first quarter of 2025, they generated combined sales of $6.15 billion, accounting for around 48% of Lilly’s total revenues. Investors will be most keen to know the sales numbers of these two drugs when Lilly reports second-quarter results on Aug. 7.
Though sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations in the second half of 2024, hurt by slower-than-expected growth and unfavorable channel dynamics, their sales picked up in the first quarter of 2025. The recovery was driven by launches of the drugs in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production. Earlier this year, the company launched additional lower-priced vial doses of Zepbound and offered new savings for self-pay patients to boost U.S. sales.
We believe that deeper penetration in the U.S. market and increased uptake in international markets are likely to have driven the growth of both drugs in the second quarter of 2025. Our model estimates for second-quarter sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound are pegged at $4.5 billion and $3.1 billion, respectively.
Beyond Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly’s broader portfolio — including the oncology drug Verzenio and immunology drug Taltz — also continues to deliver steady growth. The company’s recently launched drugs, such as Omvoh and Ebglyss in immunology, Jaypirca in oncology and Kisunla in neuroscience, have all been contributing to its top-line growth.
LLY’s Peers in the Obesity Space
According to a research conducted by Goldman Sachs, the obesity market in the United States is expected to reach $100 billion by 2030. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) presently dominate this space.
Mounjaro and Zepbound directly compete with Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. Like Lilly, Novo also generates a substantial portion of revenues from both drugs, which account for around 64% of its total first-quarter sales.
Several other companies, like Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) , are also making rapid progress in the obesity space. Recently, Viking started two late-stage studies evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of its investigational obesity drug, VK2735. A mid-stage study is currently ongoing, evaluating an oral version of this obesity drug, with a data readout expected later this year.
LLY’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Shares of Lilly have outperformed the industry year to date, as seen in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Eli Lilly is expensive. Based on the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 29.66 times forward earnings, higher than its industry’s average of 15.16. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.54.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The bottom-line estimate for 2025 has remained consistent at $21.92, while that for 2026 has declined from $30.91 to $30.84 over the past 30 days.
Image: Bigstock
Can Mounjaro and Zepbound Drive Another Strong Quarter for Eli Lilly?
Key Takeaways
Demand for Eli Lilly’s (LLY - Free Report) blockbuster GLP-1 medicines — Mounjaro (for type II diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity) — remains strong. Despite being on the market for less than three years, both drugs have become the company’s key top-line drivers. In the first quarter of 2025, they generated combined sales of $6.15 billion, accounting for around 48% of Lilly’s total revenues. Investors will be most keen to know the sales numbers of these two drugs when Lilly reports second-quarter results on Aug. 7.
Though sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations in the second half of 2024, hurt by slower-than-expected growth and unfavorable channel dynamics, their sales picked up in the first quarter of 2025. The recovery was driven by launches of the drugs in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production. Earlier this year, the company launched additional lower-priced vial doses of Zepbound and offered new savings for self-pay patients to boost U.S. sales.
We believe that deeper penetration in the U.S. market and increased uptake in international markets are likely to have driven the growth of both drugs in the second quarter of 2025. Our model estimates for second-quarter sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound are pegged at $4.5 billion and $3.1 billion, respectively.
Beyond Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly’s broader portfolio — including the oncology drug Verzenio and immunology drug Taltz — also continues to deliver steady growth. The company’s recently launched drugs, such as Omvoh and Ebglyss in immunology, Jaypirca in oncology and Kisunla in neuroscience, have all been contributing to its top-line growth.
LLY’s Peers in the Obesity Space
According to a research conducted by Goldman Sachs, the obesity market in the United States is expected to reach $100 billion by 2030. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) presently dominate this space.
Mounjaro and Zepbound directly compete with Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. Like Lilly, Novo also generates a substantial portion of revenues from both drugs, which account for around 64% of its total first-quarter sales.
Several other companies, like Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) , are also making rapid progress in the obesity space. Recently, Viking started two late-stage studies evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of its investigational obesity drug, VK2735. A mid-stage study is currently ongoing, evaluating an oral version of this obesity drug, with a data readout expected later this year.
LLY’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Shares of Lilly have outperformed the industry year to date, as seen in the chart below.
From a valuation standpoint, Eli Lilly is expensive. Based on the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 29.66 times forward earnings, higher than its industry’s average of 15.16. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.54.
The bottom-line estimate for 2025 has remained consistent at $21.92, while that for 2026 has declined from $30.91 to $30.84 over the past 30 days.
Eli Lilly currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.