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BigBear.ai Stock Jumps 86% in a Month: Still a Smart Buy?
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Key Takeaways
BBAI stock jumped nearly 86% in a month, far outpacing tech peers and broader market indices.
Defense wins and global AI partnerships helped drive 5% revenue growth and a 30% jump in backlog.
BBAI remains unprofitable but cut long-term debt by $58M and reaffirmed $160M-$180M revenue guidance.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI - Free Report) has been on a tear, with its stock surging nearly 86% over the past month. This sharp rally far outpaces the broader market, where the S&P 500 rose just 3.5%, the Zacks Computer and Technology sector added 5.5%, and the Zacks Computers – IT Services industry actually declined 0.4%.
Despite this surge, BBAI still trades at a 31% discount from its 52-week high of $10.36, while holding a massive 514% premium to its 52-week low. With such explosive gains, is there still room to run?
BBAI Share Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BigBear.ai’s Strategic Momentum Drives Confidence
BigBear.ai has delivered a string of high-impact initiatives in recent months that validate its strategic vision. In first-quarter 2025, revenue grew 5% year over year to $34.8 million, driven by Department of Homeland Security and digital identity projects, including Trueface and veriScan. Even more encouraging, backlog climbed to $385 million (up 30% year over year), reflecting strong future demand across national security, defense, and global infrastructure sectors.
New leadership under CEO Kevin McAleenan is steering the company with a sharper strategic focus. From orchestrating AI on the battlefield with Project Linchpin alongside Hardy Dynamics, to modernizing airport threat detection through a partnership with Analogic, BigBear.ai is aligning itself with mission-critical applications across domains.
BigBear.ai’s Strong Momentum in Defense and National Security
A key driver of the company’s rally is BigBear.ai’s expanding footprint in U.S. defense and homeland security. In first-quarter 2025, the company secured a pivotal contract for the Department of Defense’s Joint Staff J35 Orion AI platform, underscoring its strength in national security applications. The company is also contributing to Project Linchpin, a U.S. Army initiative focused on AI-driven drone swarm operations, in partnership with Hardy Dynamics.
Additionally, BigBear.ai’s ConductorOS platform continues to gain traction in orchestrating mission-critical operations across defense, intelligence, and border security domains. These wins not only validate the company’s AI capabilities but also position it to benefit from rising defense tech budgets in a tense geopolitical landscape.
Strategic Partnerships Signal Global Ambitions of BBAI
Beyond U.S. government contracts, BigBear.ai has extended its international reach. In the UAE, it formed a strategic partnership with Easy Lease and Vigilix to co-develop AI solutions across mobility and industrial sectors. Domestically, its tie-up with Analogic aims to revolutionize airport security through AI-enhanced CT threat detection. These alliances bolster its market credibility and diversify revenue opportunities.
Also, BigBear.ai is gaining traction through high-profile partnerships with Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , Palantir (PLTR - Free Report) , and Autodesk (ADSK - Free Report) , reinforcing the real-world impact of its AI solutions. Amazon has integrated BigBear.ai’s ProModel into AWS ProServe to boost logistics and warehouse analytics. Palantir, a leader in defense and intelligence tech, is deepening collaboration with BigBear.ai to enhance mission-critical AI capabilities. Meanwhile, Autodesk is applying BigBear.ai’s tools to improve automation across design and engineering workflows. The repeated engagement of Amazon, Palantir, and Autodesk with BigBear.ai highlights growing enterprise trust while showcasing the company’s relevance in sectors ranging from cloud and logistics to defense and industrial design.
BigBear.ai Stock Valuation: A Relative Bargain in AI
Despite the rally, BigBear.ai remains relatively undervalued compared to peers. Its forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 11.66 is well below the industry average of 19.3. The company’s three-year historical P/S range (0.51X to 12.76X) suggests current levels are not overstretched, particularly given the rising importance of AI in defense and critical infrastructure.
BBAI Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company ended the first quarter with $107.6 million in cash, up sharply from $50.1 million at the end of 2024, aided by warrant conversions and new capital inflows. This improved liquidity gives BigBear.ai more flexibility to invest in AI innovation while reducing long-term debt, which was cut by $58 million in the first quarter alone.
EPS Outlook: Mixed But Improving
While BigBear.ai remains unprofitable, there are signs of improvement. The company is expected to post a loss of 41 cents per share in 2025, a significant improvement from last year’s $1.10 loss. However, estimates for 2026 have slipped slightly in the past 60 days to a projected loss of 21 cents per share, indicating tempered optimism among analysts.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Adjusted EBITDA remains in the red at $7 million in the first quarter, versus a loss of $1.6 million a year ago, largely due to higher R&D and SG&A expenses from ongoing growth investments. Nonetheless, the reaffirmation of its 2025 guidance—$160 million to $180 million in revenues—suggests confidence in execution despite macro uncertainties.
What Should Investors Do With BigBear.ai Stock Now?
With its stock up nearly 86% in a month, investors may wonder if they’ve missed the boat on BigBear.ai. But given its strong positioning in national security, expanding international footprint, and improving fundamentals, the case for holding remains intact. The company’s backlog strength, strategic alliances, and commitment to mission-ready AI underscore its long-term relevance.
Still, short-term risks, like federal funding delays and volatile contract timing, warrant caution. Coupled with modest estimate revisions and continued EBITDA losses, this makes BigBear.ai a compelling “Hold,” not a clear “Buy” at current levels.
With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), BigBear.ai may offer further upside if execution continues to improve and defense-sector tailwinds persist. Investors already onboard should stay the course, while new entrants may want to wait for a pullback to enter at more attractive levels. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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BigBear.ai Stock Jumps 86% in a Month: Still a Smart Buy?
Key Takeaways
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI - Free Report) has been on a tear, with its stock surging nearly 86% over the past month. This sharp rally far outpaces the broader market, where the S&P 500 rose just 3.5%, the Zacks Computer and Technology sector added 5.5%, and the Zacks Computers – IT Services industry actually declined 0.4%.
Despite this surge, BBAI still trades at a 31% discount from its 52-week high of $10.36, while holding a massive 514% premium to its 52-week low. With such explosive gains, is there still room to run?
BBAI Share Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BigBear.ai’s Strategic Momentum Drives Confidence
BigBear.ai has delivered a string of high-impact initiatives in recent months that validate its strategic vision. In first-quarter 2025, revenue grew 5% year over year to $34.8 million, driven by Department of Homeland Security and digital identity projects, including Trueface and veriScan. Even more encouraging, backlog climbed to $385 million (up 30% year over year), reflecting strong future demand across national security, defense, and global infrastructure sectors.
New leadership under CEO Kevin McAleenan is steering the company with a sharper strategic focus. From orchestrating AI on the battlefield with Project Linchpin alongside Hardy Dynamics, to modernizing airport threat detection through a partnership with Analogic, BigBear.ai is aligning itself with mission-critical applications across domains.
BigBear.ai’s Strong Momentum in Defense and National Security
A key driver of the company’s rally is BigBear.ai’s expanding footprint in U.S. defense and homeland security. In first-quarter 2025, the company secured a pivotal contract for the Department of Defense’s Joint Staff J35 Orion AI platform, underscoring its strength in national security applications. The company is also contributing to Project Linchpin, a U.S. Army initiative focused on AI-driven drone swarm operations, in partnership with Hardy Dynamics.
Additionally, BigBear.ai’s ConductorOS platform continues to gain traction in orchestrating mission-critical operations across defense, intelligence, and border security domains. These wins not only validate the company’s AI capabilities but also position it to benefit from rising defense tech budgets in a tense geopolitical landscape.
Strategic Partnerships Signal Global Ambitions of BBAI
Beyond U.S. government contracts, BigBear.ai has extended its international reach. In the UAE, it formed a strategic partnership with Easy Lease and Vigilix to co-develop AI solutions across mobility and industrial sectors. Domestically, its tie-up with Analogic aims to revolutionize airport security through AI-enhanced CT threat detection. These alliances bolster its market credibility and diversify revenue opportunities.
Also, BigBear.ai is gaining traction through high-profile partnerships with Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , Palantir (PLTR - Free Report) , and Autodesk (ADSK - Free Report) , reinforcing the real-world impact of its AI solutions. Amazon has integrated BigBear.ai’s ProModel into AWS ProServe to boost logistics and warehouse analytics. Palantir, a leader in defense and intelligence tech, is deepening collaboration with BigBear.ai to enhance mission-critical AI capabilities. Meanwhile, Autodesk is applying BigBear.ai’s tools to improve automation across design and engineering workflows. The repeated engagement of Amazon, Palantir, and Autodesk with BigBear.ai highlights growing enterprise trust while showcasing the company’s relevance in sectors ranging from cloud and logistics to defense and industrial design.
BigBear.ai Stock Valuation: A Relative Bargain in AI
Despite the rally, BigBear.ai remains relatively undervalued compared to peers. Its forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 11.66 is well below the industry average of 19.3. The company’s three-year historical P/S range (0.51X to 12.76X) suggests current levels are not overstretched, particularly given the rising importance of AI in defense and critical infrastructure.
BBAI Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company ended the first quarter with $107.6 million in cash, up sharply from $50.1 million at the end of 2024, aided by warrant conversions and new capital inflows. This improved liquidity gives BigBear.ai more flexibility to invest in AI innovation while reducing long-term debt, which was cut by $58 million in the first quarter alone.
EPS Outlook: Mixed But Improving
While BigBear.ai remains unprofitable, there are signs of improvement. The company is expected to post a loss of 41 cents per share in 2025, a significant improvement from last year’s $1.10 loss. However, estimates for 2026 have slipped slightly in the past 60 days to a projected loss of 21 cents per share, indicating tempered optimism among analysts.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Adjusted EBITDA remains in the red at $7 million in the first quarter, versus a loss of $1.6 million a year ago, largely due to higher R&D and SG&A expenses from ongoing growth investments. Nonetheless, the reaffirmation of its 2025 guidance—$160 million to $180 million in revenues—suggests confidence in execution despite macro uncertainties.
What Should Investors Do With BigBear.ai Stock Now?
With its stock up nearly 86% in a month, investors may wonder if they’ve missed the boat on BigBear.ai. But given its strong positioning in national security, expanding international footprint, and improving fundamentals, the case for holding remains intact. The company’s backlog strength, strategic alliances, and commitment to mission-ready AI underscore its long-term relevance.
Still, short-term risks, like federal funding delays and volatile contract timing, warrant caution. Coupled with modest estimate revisions and continued EBITDA losses, this makes BigBear.ai a compelling “Hold,” not a clear “Buy” at current levels.
With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), BigBear.ai may offer further upside if execution continues to improve and defense-sector tailwinds persist. Investors already onboard should stay the course, while new entrants may want to wait for a pullback to enter at more attractive levels. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.