We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Q2 Earnings & CPI Data for June: Global Week Ahead
Read MoreHide Full Article
What happens across this Global Week Ahead?
Tariff curve balls get lobbed at economies and markets around the world — by the U.S. President
June Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data lands, for the U.S. and U.K.
GDP growth and retail sales numbers come out for Mainland China
Q2 earnings season gets under way, on both sides of the Atlantic, and
G20 finance officials meet in South Africa
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) In the U.S., Focus on CPI Data and the Start of Q2’s S&P500 Earnings Season
A crucial U.S. inflation reading will offer Wall Street clues on when the Federal Reserve may next cut interest rates, as second-quarter earnings roll in.
June's Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Tuesday, is expected to show a monthly rise of 0.3%, according to a Reuters poll.
Recent minutes from the Fed's June meeting showed only "a couple" of officials said they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, with most remaining worried about inflationary pressure they expect from Trump's tariffs.
Fed fund futures indicate a slim chance of a rate cut at the end-July meeting, but suggest easing in September is likely.
The impact from Trump's trade tantrums will share the stage with corporate reports — the first earnings quarter under these tariff wars.
Second-quarter earnings also kick off in Europe, and they are painting a glum picture.
In the U.S., it is already not looking pretty: earnings are expected to post their weakest growth in two years.
Corporate profits at S&P 500 (SPX) companies are seen increasing +5.8% year-on-year, according to LSEG I/B/E/S — a marked slowdown from the first quarter's near-14% rate.
In Europe, STOXX 600 earnings are expected to fall -0.2% after last quarter's +2.2% growth.
Forward guidance will be key to understanding the fallout from this era of tariffs and fears of more levies.
It's not obvious in the market's performance though, where the S&P 500 is scaling new record highs, while bourses in Europe, including Frankfurt (GDAXI) and London (FTSE), are hovering near previous peaks, shrugging off high uncertainty and moderating earnings growth rates.
(3) On Tuesday, Mainland China Q2 Real GDP Growth Figures Come Out
Trump's rekindled fragile bromance with Chinese leader Xi Jinping must have come as a great relief to Beijing policymakers, allowing them to focus on tackling deep-rooted economic problems at home.
GDP figures due on Tuesday are tipped to show the economy still chugging along above the government's soft target of 5%-ish growth.
But same-day retail sales numbers should reinforce that consumers are still saving instead of spending, frustrating government efforts to gear the economy towards consumption.
Last Wednesday, Beijing unveiled new measures to stabilize employment, including more social insurance subsidies, special loans and targeted support for young job seekers.
With the politburo due to meet around the end of the month, hopes are high — as evidenced by soaring stocks — for more stimulus to come.
Any data weakness is only likely to fan that speculation.
(4) On Wednesday, Fresh June CPI Data for the U.K. Lands, too
At +3.4%, Britain has the highest inflation among the G7 — and CPI numbers due on Wednesday will spell out just how sticky price pressures are.
A deal on U.S. tariffs that was less grim than feared, and a stronger pound may help the U.K. to absorb any inflationary impact.
In terms of the British consumer, regular pay growth has run above 5% for the better part of five years. So far, so good.
But the tax burden is the highest since the 1940s and growth in real wages — adjusted for inflation — is slowing, having risen just 1.5%, their lowest rate in almost two years.
Friday's data showed the economy shrank for a second straight month in May — not great news for finance minister Rachel Reeves, who delivers her annual Mansion House speech along with Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey on July 15th, or for U.K. households and businesses.
(5) On Thursday, the G20’s Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Gather in South Africa
G20 finance ministers and central bankers gather in Durban from Thursday under South Africa's presidency amid growing questions over the group's effectiveness on stalled progress on debt relief, climate finance and access to capital for developing nations.
South Africa’s priority areas have seen glacial progress. The Cost of Capital Commission lacks formal support and the Just Energy Transition Partnership — a collaboration between richer nations to help developing countries transition to cleaner energy - is limping along.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will skip the meeting altogether — the second time he has opted out of a South Africa G20 event — to attend Japan's World Expo 2025 instead.
The BRICS group of developing nations, along with other alternative forums, is trying to fill some of the void, though the U.S. has criticized its initiatives involving local currency payments as being “anti-American."
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I picked three major multi-nationals this week. Two are not based in the U.S.
(1) Seven and I Holdings Co. (SVNDY - Free Report) : This is a $15 a share stock with a market capitalization of $38.9B. It is found in the Retail-Miscellaneous industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of D, and Zacks Momentum score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Seven & I Holdings Co., Ltd. is a Japan-based holding company which focuses on seven business areas including convenience stores, general merchandise stores, department stores, supermarkets, food-services, financial services, and IT services.
The company's Convenience Store operates under the name 7-Eleven Japan.
The Super Store segment operates general supermarkets such as Ito Yokado and Marudai, as well as food supermarkets such as York-Benimaru, York Mart and Sanei.
The Department Store segment operates department stores such as Sogo and Seibu.
The Food Service segment operates restaurant and dining halls, as well as provides catering services.
The Financial-related segment is engaged in the provision of bank services and other financial related businesses.
The company focuses on the creation of life infrastructure that keeps up with the changing society and time, through a New, Comprehensive Lifestyle Industry to continually respond to the ordinary needs of the customers.
(2) The Estee Lauder Companies (EL - Free Report) : This is a $92 a share stock with a market capitalization of $33.1B. It is found in the Cosmetics industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of F, and Zacks Momentum score of F.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
New York-based The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is one of the world's leading manufacturers and marketers of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products.
The company’s products are sold through department stores, mass retailers, company-owned retail stores, hair salons and travel-related establishments.
The Estee Lauder Companies' manufacturing and research facilities are spread across the U.S., Canada, Belgium, Switzerland, Japan, South Africa and the U.K.
The company reports operating results in terms of product categories and geographic regions.
In terms of product categories, The Estee Lauder Companies' primary segments include:
Skin Care division (50.7% of fiscal 2024 sales): This segment sells skin care products for men and women. The products consist of moisturizers, creams, lotions, cleansers, sunscreens and self-tanning products.
Makeup division (28.6% of fiscal 2024 sales): This segment manufactures, markets and sells makeup products. Products include lipsticks, mascaras, foundations, eye shadows, nail polishes, powders and related items, such as compacts, brushes and other makeup tools.
Fragrances division (15.9% of fiscal 2024 sales): This segment sells fragrance products for men and women. Its products include eau de perfume, sprays and colognes, as well as lotions, powders, creams and soaps that are based on a particular fragrance.
Hair care division (4.8% of fiscal 2024 sales): This segment includes hair color and styling products, shampoos, conditioners, and finishing sprays.
Other division: This segment sells ancillary products and services.
Region-wise, the company reports under Americas (29.3% of fiscal 2024 sales); Europe, the Middle East & Africa (39.3% of fiscal 2024 sales); and Asia-Pacific (31.4% of fiscal 2024 sales).
(3) Bayer (BAYRY - Free Report) : This is a very cheap $8 a share stock with a market capitalization of $31.9B. It is found in the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of F, and Zacks Momentum score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in Leverkusen, Germany, Bayer AG is a global company with core competencies in the areas of health care and nutrition.
With the company’s focus completely on the Life Science businesses, a new organizational structure was introduced effective Jan. 1st, 2016.
Bayer ceded de facto control of Covestro and deconsolidated the company at the end of September 2017.
The Crop Science Division focuses on developing, producing and marketing a broad portfolio of products in seeds and plant traits, crop protection, digital solutions and customer services to promote sustainable agriculture. The company markets these products primarily through wholesalers and retailers or directly to farmers.
The pharmaceuticals business focuses on prescription products, especially for cardiology and women’s healthcare, and on specialty therapeutics focused in the areas of oncology, hematology, ophthalmology and, in the medium term, cell and gene therapy. The division also comprises the radiology business, which markets diagnostic imaging equipment and digital solutions together with the necessary contrast agents.
Consumer Health is a world-leading supplier of nonprescription (OTC = over-the-counter) medicines for self-medication and self-care. This portfolio comprises the categories of nutritional supplements, allergy, cough & cold, dermatology, pain and cardiovascular risk prevention, and digestive health.
Bayer earlier acquired the exclusive marketing rights for cardiovascular candidate acoramidis in Europe from BridgeBio. The rights were acquired from Eidos Therapeutics Inc., BridgeBio International GmbH and BridgeBio Europe B.V.
Bayer acquired BlueRock in 2019, which is now a wholly owned, independently operated subsidiary of the company.
The company also acquired Asklepios Biopharmaceutical Inc. (AskBio) in 2020 in the United States and Vividion Therapeutics in 2021.
Bayer generated revenues of €46.6 billion in 2024 compared with €47.6 billion in 2023.
Key Global Macro
The June CPI data for the USA is the key macro print. But the Mainland China data should be worth exploring too.
On Monday, Mainland China’s exports for June come out. +5% y/y is the consensus, with +4.8% y/y the prior print. Note: No! Mainland China’s exports did not fall off a cliff.
Mainland China’s imports for June come out too. +1.3% y/y is the consensus, with -3.4% y/y the prior print.
Mainland China’s FDI for June also comes out. Weak -13.2% y/y data is the prior print.
On Tuesday, Mainland China’s real GDP growth rate comes out. I see +1.0% y/y is the consensus, following a +1.2% prior print.
Mainland China’s retail sales for Q2 come out too. I see +5.5% y/y is the consensus, following a +6.4% prior print.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June comes out. The core CPI rate should be up +0.3% m/m, following a +0.1% m/m print the month prior. The prior y/y number is +2.8%.
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Bailey gives a speech.
On Wednesday, the 3-day G20 meeting kicks off in South Africa.
The U.S. Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions comes out.
On Thursday, the Euro Area’s core HICP inflation rate for June comes out. +2.3% y/y is the consensus, in line with the prior +2.3% y/y reading.
U.S. Retail Sales (ex-Autos) for June comes out. I see a +0.3% m/m bounceback print is consensus, following a weak -0.3% m/m print the month prior.
The Fed’s influential Chris Waller gives a speech.
On Friday, U.S. housing starts for June should be 1.3M annually, versus a 1.256M prior print.
Preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Expectations for July should be 61.5, up from a prior 60.7 print.
Conclusion
On July 9th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian supplied his latest Q2 earnings insights.
Next are his key points:
(1) Total S&P 500 earnings for the June quarter are expected to be up +4.7% from the same period last year, on +4.0% higher revenues.
While negative revisions to Q2 estimates have stabilized in recent weeks, estimates for the period have been under significant pressure relative to other recent periods since the June quarter got underway.
(2) Q2 earnings estimates for the Tech and Finance sectors, the two largest contributors to aggregate S&P 500 earnings, accounting for 51% of all index earnings, have also been cut since the quarter got underway.
The quarter started with significant pressure on Tech sector estimates, but the negative revisions trend notably stabilized in the subsequent weeks.
(3) Q2 earnings growth for the S&P 500 index of +4.7% improves to +6.7% once the Energy sector’s drag is removed from the aggregate numbers.
But the Q2 earnings growth pace drops to +1.6% once the Tech sector’s substantial contribution is excluded.
(4) Q2 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies are expected to be up +11.4% from the same period last year on +11.1% higher revenues.
Exclude the ‘Mag 7’ contribution?
Q2 earnings for the rest of the index would be up +3.3% (versus +4.7%).
That’s it for me.
Enjoy the start of Q2 earnings season.
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Bigstock
Q2 Earnings & CPI Data for June: Global Week Ahead
What happens across this Global Week Ahead?
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) In the U.S., Focus on CPI Data and the Start of Q2’s S&P500 Earnings Season
A crucial U.S. inflation reading will offer Wall Street clues on when the Federal Reserve may next cut interest rates, as second-quarter earnings roll in.
June's Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Tuesday, is expected to show a monthly rise of 0.3%, according to a Reuters poll.
Recent minutes from the Fed's June meeting showed only "a couple" of officials said they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, with most remaining worried about inflationary pressure they expect from Trump's tariffs.
Fed fund futures indicate a slim chance of a rate cut at the end-July meeting, but suggest easing in September is likely.
The impact from Trump's trade tantrums will share the stage with corporate reports — the first earnings quarter under these tariff wars.
Major banks also report in the coming week, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM - Free Report) , Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) , while Q2 results are due from Netflix (NFLX - Free Report) , Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) and 3M (MMM - Free Report) .
(2) In Europe, Q2 Earnings Season Also Kicks Off
Second-quarter earnings also kick off in Europe, and they are painting a glum picture.
In the U.S., it is already not looking pretty: earnings are expected to post their weakest growth in two years.
Corporate profits at S&P 500 (SPX) companies are seen increasing +5.8% year-on-year, according to LSEG I/B/E/S — a marked slowdown from the first quarter's near-14% rate.
In Europe, STOXX 600 earnings are expected to fall -0.2% after last quarter's +2.2% growth.
Forward guidance will be key to understanding the fallout from this era of tariffs and fears of more levies.
It's not obvious in the market's performance though, where the S&P 500 is scaling new record highs, while bourses in Europe, including Frankfurt (GDAXI) and London (FTSE), are hovering near previous peaks, shrugging off high uncertainty and moderating earnings growth rates.
(3) On Tuesday, Mainland China Q2 Real GDP Growth Figures Come Out
Trump's rekindled fragile bromance with Chinese leader Xi Jinping must have come as a great relief to Beijing policymakers, allowing them to focus on tackling deep-rooted economic problems at home.
GDP figures due on Tuesday are tipped to show the economy still chugging along above the government's soft target of 5%-ish growth.
But same-day retail sales numbers should reinforce that consumers are still saving instead of spending, frustrating government efforts to gear the economy towards consumption.
Last Wednesday, Beijing unveiled new measures to stabilize employment, including more social insurance subsidies, special loans and targeted support for young job seekers.
With the politburo due to meet around the end of the month, hopes are high — as evidenced by soaring stocks — for more stimulus to come.
Any data weakness is only likely to fan that speculation.
(4) On Wednesday, Fresh June CPI Data for the U.K. Lands, too
At +3.4%, Britain has the highest inflation among the G7 — and CPI numbers due on Wednesday will spell out just how sticky price pressures are.
A deal on U.S. tariffs that was less grim than feared, and a stronger pound may help the U.K. to absorb any inflationary impact.
In terms of the British consumer, regular pay growth has run above 5% for the better part of five years. So far, so good.
But the tax burden is the highest since the 1940s and growth in real wages — adjusted for inflation — is slowing, having risen just 1.5%, their lowest rate in almost two years.
Friday's data showed the economy shrank for a second straight month in May — not great news for finance minister Rachel Reeves, who delivers her annual Mansion House speech along with Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey on July 15th, or for U.K. households and businesses.
(5) On Thursday, the G20’s Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Gather in South Africa
G20 finance ministers and central bankers gather in Durban from Thursday under South Africa's presidency amid growing questions over the group's effectiveness on stalled progress on debt relief, climate finance and access to capital for developing nations.
South Africa’s priority areas have seen glacial progress. The Cost of Capital Commission lacks formal support and the Just Energy Transition Partnership — a collaboration between richer nations to help developing countries transition to cleaner energy - is limping along.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will skip the meeting altogether — the second time he has opted out of a South Africa G20 event — to attend Japan's World Expo 2025 instead.
The BRICS group of developing nations, along with other alternative forums, is trying to fill some of the void, though the U.S. has criticized its initiatives involving local currency payments as being “anti-American."
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I picked three major multi-nationals this week. Two are not based in the U.S.
(1) Seven and I Holdings Co. (SVNDY - Free Report) : This is a $15 a share stock with a market capitalization of $38.9B. It is found in the Retail-Miscellaneous industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of D, and Zacks Momentum score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Seven & I Holdings Co., Ltd. is a Japan-based holding company which focuses on seven business areas including convenience stores, general merchandise stores, department stores, supermarkets, food-services, financial services, and IT services.
The company focuses on the creation of life infrastructure that keeps up with the changing society and time, through a New, Comprehensive Lifestyle Industry to continually respond to the ordinary needs of the customers.
(2) The Estee Lauder Companies (EL - Free Report) : This is a $92 a share stock with a market capitalization of $33.1B. It is found in the Cosmetics industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of F, and Zacks Momentum score of F.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
New York-based The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is one of the world's leading manufacturers and marketers of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products.
The company’s products are sold through department stores, mass retailers, company-owned retail stores, hair salons and travel-related establishments.
The Estee Lauder Companies' manufacturing and research facilities are spread across the U.S., Canada, Belgium, Switzerland, Japan, South Africa and the U.K.
The company reports operating results in terms of product categories and geographic regions.
In terms of product categories, The Estee Lauder Companies' primary segments include:
Region-wise, the company reports under Americas (29.3% of fiscal 2024 sales); Europe, the Middle East & Africa (39.3% of fiscal 2024 sales); and Asia-Pacific (31.4% of fiscal 2024 sales).
(3) Bayer (BAYRY - Free Report) : This is a very cheap $8 a share stock with a market capitalization of $31.9B. It is found in the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of F, and Zacks Momentum score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headquartered in Leverkusen, Germany, Bayer AG is a global company with core competencies in the areas of health care and nutrition.
With the company’s focus completely on the Life Science businesses, a new organizational structure was introduced effective Jan. 1st, 2016.
Bayer ceded de facto control of Covestro and deconsolidated the company at the end of September 2017.
The Crop Science Division focuses on developing, producing and marketing a broad portfolio of products in seeds and plant traits, crop protection, digital solutions and customer services to promote sustainable agriculture. The company markets these products primarily through wholesalers and retailers or directly to farmers.
The pharmaceuticals business focuses on prescription products, especially for cardiology and women’s healthcare, and on specialty therapeutics focused in the areas of oncology, hematology, ophthalmology and, in the medium term, cell and gene therapy. The division also comprises the radiology business, which markets diagnostic imaging equipment and digital solutions together with the necessary contrast agents.
Consumer Health is a world-leading supplier of nonprescription (OTC = over-the-counter) medicines for self-medication and self-care. This portfolio comprises the categories of nutritional supplements, allergy, cough & cold, dermatology, pain and cardiovascular risk prevention, and digestive health.
Bayer earlier acquired the exclusive marketing rights for cardiovascular candidate acoramidis in Europe from BridgeBio. The rights were acquired from Eidos Therapeutics Inc., BridgeBio International GmbH and BridgeBio Europe B.V.
Bayer acquired BlueRock in 2019, which is now a wholly owned, independently operated subsidiary of the company.
The company also acquired Asklepios Biopharmaceutical Inc. (AskBio) in 2020 in the United States and Vividion Therapeutics in 2021.
Bayer generated revenues of €46.6 billion in 2024 compared with €47.6 billion in 2023.
Key Global Macro
The June CPI data for the USA is the key macro print. But the Mainland China data should be worth exploring too.
On Monday, Mainland China’s exports for June come out. +5% y/y is the consensus, with +4.8% y/y the prior print. Note: No! Mainland China’s exports did not fall off a cliff.
Mainland China’s imports for June come out too. +1.3% y/y is the consensus, with -3.4% y/y the prior print.
Mainland China’s FDI for June also comes out. Weak -13.2% y/y data is the prior print.
On Tuesday, Mainland China’s real GDP growth rate comes out. I see +1.0% y/y is the consensus, following a +1.2% prior print.
Mainland China’s retail sales for Q2 come out too. I see +5.5% y/y is the consensus, following a +6.4% prior print.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June comes out. The core CPI rate should be up +0.3% m/m, following a +0.1% m/m print the month prior. The prior y/y number is +2.8%.
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Bailey gives a speech.
On Wednesday, the 3-day G20 meeting kicks off in South Africa.
The U.S. Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions comes out.
On Thursday, the Euro Area’s core HICP inflation rate for June comes out. +2.3% y/y is the consensus, in line with the prior +2.3% y/y reading.
U.S. Retail Sales (ex-Autos) for June comes out. I see a +0.3% m/m bounceback print is consensus, following a weak -0.3% m/m print the month prior.
The Fed’s influential Chris Waller gives a speech.
On Friday, U.S. housing starts for June should be 1.3M annually, versus a 1.256M prior print.
Preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Expectations for July should be 61.5, up from a prior 60.7 print.
Conclusion
On July 9th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian supplied his latest Q2 earnings insights.
Next are his key points:
(1) Total S&P 500 earnings for the June quarter are expected to be up +4.7% from the same period last year, on +4.0% higher revenues.
While negative revisions to Q2 estimates have stabilized in recent weeks, estimates for the period have been under significant pressure relative to other recent periods since the June quarter got underway.
(2) Q2 earnings estimates for the Tech and Finance sectors, the two largest contributors to aggregate S&P 500 earnings, accounting for 51% of all index earnings, have also been cut since the quarter got underway.
The quarter started with significant pressure on Tech sector estimates, but the negative revisions trend notably stabilized in the subsequent weeks.
(3) Q2 earnings growth for the S&P 500 index of +4.7% improves to +6.7% once the Energy sector’s drag is removed from the aggregate numbers.
But the Q2 earnings growth pace drops to +1.6% once the Tech sector’s substantial contribution is excluded.
(4) Q2 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies are expected to be up +11.4% from the same period last year on +11.1% higher revenues.
Exclude the ‘Mag 7’ contribution?
Q2 earnings for the rest of the index would be up +3.3% (versus +4.7%).
That’s it for me.
Enjoy the start of Q2 earnings season.
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist