We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Economy Shows Signs of Warming: CPI, Q2 Bank Earnings
Read MoreHide Full Article
Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Events begin to pick up this morning for the ongoing trading week. Following a fairly dormant period of the last week and a half or so, we’re finally getting down to some real nitty-grit. Pre-markets are bouncing around a bit at this hour, but looking to push fully into the green ahead of the opening bell. The Dow is down -34 points, but the S&P 500, Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 are all up: +25 points, +160 and +5 points, respectively.
CPI for June In-Line with Warmer Expectations
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is out this morning, reporting on the month of June: +0.3% month over month is as expected, and 20 basis points (bps) warmer than the +0.1% reported the previous month. Subtracting volatile food and energy costs, core CPI month-over-month came in a tad cooler: +0.2%, also off +0.1% the prior month.
Year-over-year CPI is also known as the “Inflation Rate,” and this we see has swelled +30 bps month over month to +2.7%. This is the highest we’ve seen since February, and further looks like a bounce off the near-term low of +2.3% — which was still hotter than the Fed’s optimal +2.0% yearly rate of inflation — back in April. Core CPI year over year reached +2.9%, up 10 bps month over month and 10 bps under estimates.
We noted the Fed’s preferential rate on inflation, but in many ways this notion is on borrowed time. A replacement of Jerome Powell as the Chair of the Federal Reserve would no doubt usher in a dovish regime on interest rates — currently remaining between +4.25-4.50%, where it’s been since December — and would thus most likely justify a higher Inflation Rate — say, +3% — at some point in the future.
Empire State Swings to Positive in July
The monthly manufacturing survey for New York State — the Empire State Index for July — swung to a positive +5.5 points this morning, up from an expected -9.0 and an unrevised -16.0 reported for June. This is again the highest since February, and follows four-straight down-months on this metric. Here’s another signal that the economy is warming up again.
Big Banks Kick-Off Q2 Earnings Season
Speaking of New York, three of the biggest banks on Wall Street reported Q2 earnings this morning, with beats across the board on both top and bottom lines. Yet more evidence the economy is advancing better than had been expected.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM - Free Report) posted as typically impressive Q2 report, with earnings of $4.96 per share springing to a +10% surprise over estimates (and the $4.40 per share reported in the year-ago quarter). Revenues of $44.91 billion outpaced estimates by +2.5% (though off the $50.2 billion in generated revenues from the year-ago quarter). Shares have made back their near-term dip, and remain up +20.4% year to date. For more on JPM’s earnings, click here.
Citigroup (C - Free Report) also improved over expectations in its Q2 results this morning, with earnings of $1.96 per share easily surpassing the $1.61 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues of $21.67 billion beat the $20.98 billion analysts were looking for. This earnings beat was even better than the trailing 4-quarter average, +8.75%, for Citi’s 10th straight earnings beat. (You can see the full Zacks Earnings Calendar here.)
Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) likewise demonstrated a better-than-expected ability to realize profits in its Q2 this morning, with earnings of $1.54 per share zipping beyond the $1.41 projected, as well as the $1.33 per share reported for Q2 2024. Revenues of $20.82 billion amounted to a positive surprise of a more-modest +0.57%. Net Interest Income was shy of estimates, however, as we see in this morning’s slight selloff. For more on WFC’s earnings, click here.
Image: Bigstock
Economy Shows Signs of Warming: CPI, Q2 Bank Earnings
Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Events begin to pick up this morning for the ongoing trading week. Following a fairly dormant period of the last week and a half or so, we’re finally getting down to some real nitty-grit. Pre-markets are bouncing around a bit at this hour, but looking to push fully into the green ahead of the opening bell. The Dow is down -34 points, but the S&P 500, Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 are all up: +25 points, +160 and +5 points, respectively.
CPI for June In-Line with Warmer Expectations
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is out this morning, reporting on the month of June: +0.3% month over month is as expected, and 20 basis points (bps) warmer than the +0.1% reported the previous month. Subtracting volatile food and energy costs, core CPI month-over-month came in a tad cooler: +0.2%, also off +0.1% the prior month.
Year-over-year CPI is also known as the “Inflation Rate,” and this we see has swelled +30 bps month over month to +2.7%. This is the highest we’ve seen since February, and further looks like a bounce off the near-term low of +2.3% — which was still hotter than the Fed’s optimal +2.0% yearly rate of inflation — back in April. Core CPI year over year reached +2.9%, up 10 bps month over month and 10 bps under estimates.
We noted the Fed’s preferential rate on inflation, but in many ways this notion is on borrowed time. A replacement of Jerome Powell as the Chair of the Federal Reserve would no doubt usher in a dovish regime on interest rates — currently remaining between +4.25-4.50%, where it’s been since December — and would thus most likely justify a higher Inflation Rate — say, +3% — at some point in the future.
Empire State Swings to Positive in July
The monthly manufacturing survey for New York State — the Empire State Index for July — swung to a positive +5.5 points this morning, up from an expected -9.0 and an unrevised -16.0 reported for June. This is again the highest since February, and follows four-straight down-months on this metric. Here’s another signal that the economy is warming up again.
Big Banks Kick-Off Q2 Earnings Season
Speaking of New York, three of the biggest banks on Wall Street reported Q2 earnings this morning, with beats across the board on both top and bottom lines. Yet more evidence the economy is advancing better than had been expected.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM - Free Report) posted as typically impressive Q2 report, with earnings of $4.96 per share springing to a +10% surprise over estimates (and the $4.40 per share reported in the year-ago quarter). Revenues of $44.91 billion outpaced estimates by +2.5% (though off the $50.2 billion in generated revenues from the year-ago quarter). Shares have made back their near-term dip, and remain up +20.4% year to date. For more on JPM’s earnings, click here.
Citigroup (C - Free Report) also improved over expectations in its Q2 results this morning, with earnings of $1.96 per share easily surpassing the $1.61 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues of $21.67 billion beat the $20.98 billion analysts were looking for. This earnings beat was even better than the trailing 4-quarter average, +8.75%, for Citi’s 10th straight earnings beat. (You can see the full Zacks Earnings Calendar here.)
Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) likewise demonstrated a better-than-expected ability to realize profits in its Q2 this morning, with earnings of $1.54 per share zipping beyond the $1.41 projected, as well as the $1.33 per share reported for Q2 2024. Revenues of $20.82 billion amounted to a positive surprise of a more-modest +0.57%. Net Interest Income was shy of estimates, however, as we see in this morning’s slight selloff. For more on WFC’s earnings, click here.
Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>