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Alcoa Gears Up to Post Q2 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Alcoa's Aluminum segment is likely to have gained from strong slab, billet and rod demand in key regions.
Rising aluminum prices and San Ciprian's restart are expected to support Aluminum segment sales.
Alumina segment sales likely fell due to China's bauxite supply issues and global currency headwinds.
Alcoa Corporation (AA - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line from last year’s quarterly reading when it reports second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 16, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.91 billion, indicating an increase of 0.3% from the prior-year’s quarterly figure.
The bottom line of this leading producer of bauxite, alumina and aluminum products is expected to have declined from the earlier year’s quarterly figure. Over the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for earnings per share has decreased 65.5% to 30 cents. However, the figure indicates an increase of 87.5% from last year’s quarterly level.
The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 57.4%, on average, beating estimates all through. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Key Factors to Note Ahead of AA’s Results
An increase in demand for products like slab, billet and rod in both Europe and North America is expected to have benefited Alcoa’s Aluminum segment in the second quarter of 2025. Also, the restart of the San Ciprián smelter and higher aluminum prices are likely to have aided the segment’s sales.
For the second quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aluminum segment’s third-party sales is $1.96 billion, implying a 3.2% increase from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for the Aluminum segment’s total sales is pegged at $2.02 billion, indicating a 6.2% rise from the year-ago reported number.
Synergistic gains from partnerships and acquisitions made by the company are expected to have boosted revenues. In March 2025, Alcoa and IGNIS EQT entered into a joint venture agreement. Under the agreement, AA owns 75% of the equity and continues to operate the San Ciprián production site. In August 2024, Alcoa acquired Alumina Limited. This acquisition bolstered AA’s position as a pure-play and upstream aluminum company worldwide.
Also, Alcoa's efforts to increase smelter and refinery capacity are likely to have supported its performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
However, Alcoa’s Alumina segment’s results are expected to put up a weak show due to weakness in the bauxite market in China, arising from safety and environmental inspections. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s third-party sales is pegged at $836 million, implying an 8.5% decrease from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s total sales is pegged at $1.37 billion, indicating a 6.5% decline from the year-ago number.
Given the company’s extensive geographic presence, its operations are subject to global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds. A stronger U.S. dollar is likely to have hurt Alcoa's overseas business in the quarter.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AA this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: AA has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 30 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Here are some companies within the broader Industrial Products sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in this reporting cycle.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter 2025 results on July 30.
Illinois Tool’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 3%.
Dover Corporation (DOV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter 2025 results on July 24.
Dover’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being 5.2%.
Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter 2025 results on July 21.
Crown Holdings’ earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 16.3%.
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Alcoa Gears Up to Post Q2 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Alcoa Corporation (AA - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line from last year’s quarterly reading when it reports second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 16, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.91 billion, indicating an increase of 0.3% from the prior-year’s quarterly figure.
The bottom line of this leading producer of bauxite, alumina and aluminum products is expected to have declined from the earlier year’s quarterly figure. Over the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for earnings per share has decreased 65.5% to 30 cents. However, the figure indicates an increase of 87.5% from last year’s quarterly level.
The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 57.4%, on average, beating estimates all through. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Key Factors to Note Ahead of AA’s Results
An increase in demand for products like slab, billet and rod in both Europe and North America is expected to have benefited Alcoa’s Aluminum segment in the second quarter of 2025. Also, the restart of the San Ciprián smelter and higher aluminum prices are likely to have aided the segment’s sales.
For the second quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aluminum segment’s third-party sales is $1.96 billion, implying a 3.2% increase from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for the Aluminum segment’s total sales is pegged at $2.02 billion, indicating a 6.2% rise from the year-ago reported number.
Synergistic gains from partnerships and acquisitions made by the company are expected to have boosted revenues. In March 2025, Alcoa and IGNIS EQT entered into a joint venture agreement. Under the agreement, AA owns 75% of the equity and continues to operate the San Ciprián production site. In August 2024, Alcoa acquired Alumina Limited. This acquisition bolstered AA’s position as a pure-play and upstream aluminum company worldwide.
Also, Alcoa's efforts to increase smelter and refinery capacity are likely to have supported its performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
However, Alcoa’s Alumina segment’s results are expected to put up a weak show due to weakness in the bauxite market in China, arising from safety and environmental inspections. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s third-party sales is pegged at $836 million, implying an 8.5% decrease from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s total sales is pegged at $1.37 billion, indicating a 6.5% decline from the year-ago number.
Given the company’s extensive geographic presence, its operations are subject to global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds. A stronger U.S. dollar is likely to have hurt Alcoa's overseas business in the quarter.
Alcoa Price and EPS Surprise
Alcoa price-eps-surprise | Alcoa Quote
Earnings Whispers for AA
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AA this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: AA has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 30 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: AA presently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies within the broader Industrial Products sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in this reporting cycle.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter 2025 results on July 30.
Illinois Tool’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 3%.
Dover Corporation (DOV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter 2025 results on July 24.
Dover’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being 5.2%.
Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter 2025 results on July 21.
Crown Holdings’ earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 16.3%.