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Chipotle to Report Q2 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
CMG is set to report Q2 earnings on July 23, with EPS expected to decline 5.9% year over year.
Revenues are estimated at $3.1B, up 4.4%, driven by digital growth, expansion and marketing efforts.
Higher labor, food and tariff costs are expected to weigh on restaurant-level margins.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on July 23, 2025.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6%. CMG has an impressive record of surpassing earnings expectations. Its earnings beat the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.2%.
How Are Estimates Placed for CMG?
For the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has remained unchanged at 32 cents over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a decrease of 5.9% from 34 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at approximately $3.1 billion. The metric implies an increase of 4.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Let us look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Shaping Chipotle’s Q2 Performance
Chipotle’s top line is expected to have increased year over year in the second quarter, driven by strong digitalization, expansion efforts and marketing initiatives. The company’s investment in technology and innovation is likely to have bolstered its operations.
Furthermore, Chipotle’s focus on marketing during the quarter is likely to have supported efforts to enhance brand visibility and cultural relevance. These initiatives are aimed at driving consumer engagement and expected to have aided in stabilizing traffic and sales performance.
Our model predicts second-quarter food and beverage revenues to increase 4.5% year over year to $3.1 billion. Delivery service revenues are expected to be $17.4 million, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 4.3%.
However, soft comparable restaurant sales, due to lower transactions, are likely to have hurt the company’s top line in the second quarter. With no major shift in the consumer environment, the pressure on sales trends is likely to have persisted through the quarter. Our model predicts comps to decline 2.5% year over year in the second quarter.
Elevated wage and commodity inflation are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s bottom line performance in the second quarter of 2025. For the to-be-reported quarter, the company projects labor costs to be in the mid-24% range, with wage inflation in the low single digits. Marketing expenses are expected to be in the mid-2% range for the quarter, while other operating costs are forecasted in the high-13% range, adding to overall cost pressure. Additionally, the impact of newly enacted tariffs, including those on aluminum and the broad-based 10%, is estimated to contribute around 20 basis points in the second quarter, adding further pressure to margins.
Our model predicts food, beverage and packaging costs to be $929.6 million, indicating a 6.4% year-over-year rise. Per the model, labor costs are expected to increase 10.2% to $789.5 million. Our model predicts a restaurant-level margin of 26.7%. In second-quarter 2024, the company reported a restaurant-level margin of 28.9%.
What Our Model Unveils for CMG
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP of CMG: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of +0.63%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
CMG’s Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Other Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings
Here are some other companies in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector which, too, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
QSR is expected to register a 12.8% year-over-year increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. Restaurant Brands’ earnings beat the consensus mark in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, with a negative average surprise of 0.3%.
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.51% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
DPZ’s earnings beat the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 6.5%. Domino's earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decease 2.5% year over year.
Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
YUM’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to grow 7.4% year over year. YUM’s earnings beat the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 0.5%.
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Chipotle to Report Q2 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on July 23, 2025.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6%. CMG has an impressive record of surpassing earnings expectations. Its earnings beat the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.2%.
How Are Estimates Placed for CMG?
For the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has remained unchanged at 32 cents over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a decrease of 5.9% from 34 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at approximately $3.1 billion. The metric implies an increase of 4.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Quote
Let us look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Shaping Chipotle’s Q2 Performance
Chipotle’s top line is expected to have increased year over year in the second quarter, driven by strong digitalization, expansion efforts and marketing initiatives. The company’s investment in technology and innovation is likely to have bolstered its operations.
Furthermore, Chipotle’s focus on marketing during the quarter is likely to have supported efforts to enhance brand visibility and cultural relevance. These initiatives are aimed at driving consumer engagement and expected to have aided in stabilizing traffic and sales performance.
Our model predicts second-quarter food and beverage revenues to increase 4.5% year over year to $3.1 billion. Delivery service revenues are expected to be $17.4 million, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 4.3%.
However, soft comparable restaurant sales, due to lower transactions, are likely to have hurt the company’s top line in the second quarter. With no major shift in the consumer environment, the pressure on sales trends is likely to have persisted through the quarter. Our model predicts comps to decline 2.5% year over year in the second quarter.
Elevated wage and commodity inflation are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s bottom line performance in the second quarter of 2025. For the to-be-reported quarter, the company projects labor costs to be in the mid-24% range, with wage inflation in the low single digits. Marketing expenses are expected to be in the mid-2% range for the quarter, while other operating costs are forecasted in the high-13% range, adding to overall cost pressure. Additionally, the impact of newly enacted tariffs, including those on aluminum and the broad-based 10%, is estimated to contribute around 20 basis points in the second quarter, adding further pressure to margins.
Our model predicts food, beverage and packaging costs to be $929.6 million, indicating a 6.4% year-over-year rise. Per the model, labor costs are expected to increase 10.2% to $789.5 million. Our model predicts a restaurant-level margin of 26.7%. In second-quarter 2024, the company reported a restaurant-level margin of 28.9%.
What Our Model Unveils for CMG
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP of CMG: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of +0.63%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
CMG’s Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Other Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings
Here are some other companies in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector which, too, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
QSR is expected to register a 12.8% year-over-year increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. Restaurant Brands’ earnings beat the consensus mark in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, with a negative average surprise of 0.3%.
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.51% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
DPZ’s earnings beat the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 6.5%. Domino's earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decease 2.5% year over year.
Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
YUM’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to grow 7.4% year over year. YUM’s earnings beat the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 0.5%.