Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Tesla ETFs in Focus Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Read MoreHide Full Article

Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is scheduled to report results for the second quarter of 2025 on July 23 after market close.

Tesla has gained about 56% over the past three months, outperforming the industry’s growth of 28.8%. The solid trend is likely to continue if Tesla comes up with an earnings surprise. However, the second-quarter earnings picture is not assuring (read: 5 Sector ETFs Set to Power Q2 Earnings Growth). 

ETFs having a substantial allocation to this luxury carmaker like Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF (TESL - Free Report) , Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY - Free Report) , The Nightview Fund (NITE - Free Report) , Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS - Free Report) and Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR - Free Report) are in focus ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings.

Q2 Earnings Look Bleak

Tesla has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). According to our methodology, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

The electric carmaker saw a negative earnings estimate revision of 3 cents over the past 30 days for the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter indicates a substantial year-over-year earnings decline of 23.1% and a revenue decline of 11.8%. The earnings track record of the company is not good, as it missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters.

Tesla, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Tesla, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Tesla, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tesla, Inc. Quote

The EV maker currently has a Wall Street analyst recommendation of 2.87 on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell) made by 41 brokerage firms. Of these, 12 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy, respectively, account for 29.27% and 4.88% of all recommendations. Based on short-term price targets offered by 34 analysts, the average price target for Tesla comes to $296.59, ranging from a low of $115.00 to a high of $500.00.

Tesla’s Dismal Q2 Delivery Numbers

Tesla reported a decline in global deliveries once again for the second quarter of 2025, marking its second consecutive quarterly drop. This leading electric carmaker delivered 384,122 (373,728 Model 3/Y and 10,394 other models) cars worldwide in the second quarter. The figure declined 13.5% from the year-ago quarter, marking the worst year-over-year decline in deliveries in the company’s history (read: Will Tesla's Worst-Ever Q2 Vehicle Sales Drop Shake its ETFs?). 

Tesla produced 410,244 (396,835 Model 3/Y and 13,409 other models) vehicles during the quarter.

Robotaxi Launch

Tesla launched its long-anticipated driverless robotaxi service in Austin, TX, last month — a pivotal move in the electric carmaker’s push toward full autonomy. The launch represents a strategic pivot for Tesla amid declining vehicle sales and growing investor criticism of Musk’s leadership (read: Capitalize on Tesla's Robotaxi Momentum With These ETFs). 

With this debut, Tesla entered into direct competition with Alphabet-owned Waymo, which already operates commercial autonomous taxi services in multiple U.S. cities. Tesla's move is seen as a bold attempt to prove real-world viability in an industry still grappling with safety concerns, technical challenges and regulatory scrutiny.

What to Watch

The EV maker is facing a fading EV market share, rising competition, most notably from an influx of next-generation EVs from Chinese automakers, and a somewhat tarnished brand name, with its CEO Elon Musk’s foray into politics. 

Tesla is increasingly focusing on next-generation technologies, including autonomous driving and humanoid robotics. Musk has stated his ambition to expand the service to multiple U.S. cities by the end of this year, aiming for “millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year.”

ETFs in Focus

Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF (TESL - Free Report) : It uses an active management strategy to capture the potential of Tesla’s stock price movements while implementing an advanced options overlay to manage downside risks.  

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY - Free Report) : Tesla makes up for 16.2% of the portfolio.

The Nightview Fund (NITE - Free Report) : Tesla accounts for 14.9% of the portfolio.

Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS - Free Report) : Tesla accounts for 14.7% of the portfolio.

Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR - Free Report) : Tesla accounts for 14.5% of the assets.

Published in