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Mohawk Gears Up to Post Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • MHK expects Q2 EPS of $2.52-$2.62, down from $3 last year, on continued macro and industry pressures.
  • Net sales are projected to dip 0.3% to $2.79B, with softness in Global Ceramic and Flooring Rest of World.
  • Ongoing restructuring is expected to yield $100M in 2025 savings, aiding margins amid inflationary headwinds.

Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK - Free Report) is scheduled to report results for the second quarter of 2025 on July 24, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.7% but declined 18.3% year over year. Net sales missed the consensus estimate by 1.8% and declined 0.7% year over year.

MHK’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 5.1%.

How Are Estimates Placed for Mohawk Stock?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mohawk’s earnings per share (EPS) has remained unchanged at $2.63 over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a decrease of 12.3% from the year-ago level.

Mohawk Industries, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Mohawk Industries, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Mohawk Industries, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Mohawk Industries, Inc. Quote

The consensus estimate for net sales is pegged at $2.79 billion, indicating a 0.3% decrease from the year-earlier level.

Factors That Might Have Influenced MHK’s Quarterly Results

Mohawk’s top and bottom lines are expected to have declined in the second quarter due to the ongoing macroeconomic and industry headwinds, with ongoing softness in the residential remodeling market caused by elevated interest rates, low housing turnover and a cautious consumer environment. These pressures are expected to have weighed on both sales volumes and pricing power in the to-be-reported quarter.

Our model expects second-quarter net sales in the Global Ceramic, which accounted for 39.3% of first-quarter 2025 net sales, and Flooring Rest of World (26.6%) segments to decline 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively, to $1.1 billion and $718.5 million year over year. Meanwhile, net sales in Flooring North America (34.1%) are expected to increase 0.1% year over year to $959.1 million. The commercial demand trends in the Flooring North America segment are likely to have benefited from accelerated product launches and the ongoing restructuring actions.

Cost inflation remains a critical headwind, particularly in raw materials, labor and energy. Though Mohawk has been actively pursuing pricing actions in select categories and implementing cost reductions, management acknowledged that it will be difficult to fully offset rising costs through pricing alone. 

The company expects second-quarter adjusted EPS in the range of $2.52-$2.62, excluding restructuring and other charges. This indicates a decline from the year-ago EPS of $3. We expect the adjusted gross margin to decline 170 bps year over year to 25.4%. The adjusted operating margin is expected to decrease to 7.7% from 9.2% reported a year ago.

Nonetheless, Mohawk is leaning on strategic levers to support performance. Restructuring efforts across business units are expected to yield $100 million in incremental savings in 2025 and $285 million on a run-rate basis by 2026. Also, strategic investments in new products are likely to have aided sales. These innovations, particularly in premium laminate and LVT, are expected to provide long-term pricing and margin benefits.

What Our Model Unveils for Mohawk

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mohawk this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as seen below.

MHK’s Earnings ESP: MHK has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

MHK’s Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are a few stocks from the Zacks Consumer-Discretionary sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.18% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Hilton Worldwide’s earnings are expected to increase 6.8%. Hilton Worldwide’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 4.7%.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
 
In the to-be-reported quarter, Las Vegas Sands’ earnings are expected to decrease 1.8%. Las Vegas Sands’ earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the negative average surprise being 9.6%.

Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
 
In the to-be-reported quarter, Flutter Entertainment’s earnings are expected to decrease 1.9%. Flutter Entertainment’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 81.2%.

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