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Amgen vs. Novo Nordisk: Which Pharma Giant Is the Better Buy?
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Key Takeaways
Amgen's growth is driven by newer drugs, biosimilars, and its Horizon deal despite looming patent losses.
Novo Nordisk leads in GLP-1s, but faces competition, weak CagriSema data and a CEO transition.
Amgen offers a stronger valuation and dividend yield, while Novo shows faster projected 2025 EPS growth.
Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) are among the largest companies in the pharmaceutical space.
Amgen boasts one of the largest portfolios in the sector, with a strong presence in oncology, cardiovascular disease, inflammation, bone health and rare disease markets.
On the other hand, Novo Nordisk enjoys a leading position in the diabetes and obesity market, while steadily expanding its presence into rare diseases.
Both these giants have established strong footholds in their respective target markets, delivering consistent returns to shareholders. In such a scenario, choosing one stock over another can be challenging. Let's examine the fundamentals of the two stocks to make a prudent choice.
The Case for AMGN
Amgen’s diverse portfolio and global reach position it well in a changing pharma landscape. Growth products like Repatha, Prolia, Xgeva, Evenity, Vectibix, Nplate, Kyprolis and Blincyto are performing well, having gained approvals for label expansions. The robust sales of these drugs have helped Amgen offset the declining sales of its legacy drugs such as Enbrel.
The 2023 acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics has significantly expanded Amgen's rare disease business by adding several rare disease drugs, including Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna, to its portfolio.
Amgen is one of the handful of companies that is evaluating an obesity drug in late-stage development. In March, the company started two phase III studies evaluating its investigational GIPR/GLP-1 receptor MariTide for 72 weeks in people with obesity, with or without type II diabetes (T2D). Additional late-stage studies on the drug in specific obesity-related conditions are expected to start throughout 2025.
Unlike the currently marketed obesity drugs like Novo’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s (LLY - Free Report) Zepbound that require weekly injections, MariTide is being tested for monthly dosing. The late-stage development of the drug was supported by data from phase II studies, wherein treatment with MariTide resulted in up to approximately 20% average weight loss over 52 weeks, without reaching a weight loss plateau in people who were obese or overweight but without T2D. However, the weight loss reduction was at the lower end of investor expectations of 20-25%. In T2D patients who were obese or overweight, the weight loss reduction was approximately 17% at 52 weeks.
Beyond obesity, Amgen has promising late-stage pipeline drugs across several therapeutic areas, which represent significant commercial potential. These include bemarituzumab (for first-line gastric cancer), rocatinlimab (for eczema and prurigo nodularis) and olpasiran (for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease).
Amgen has also strengthened its biosimilar portfolio, with the recent launches of biosimilar versions of popular drugs like J&J’s Stelara (marketed as ‘Wezlana’) and Regeneron’s Eylea (‘Pavblu’). It is also developing biosimilar versions of blockbuster oncology drugs like Bristol Myers’ Opdivo and Merck’s Keytruda in ongoing phase III studies.
However, increased pricing headwinds and competitive pressure are negatively impacting the sales of many products. Sales of best-selling drugs, Prolia and Xgeva, are expected to decline in 2025, mainly from the second half, due to patent erosion.
The Case for NVO
Novo Nordisk has achieved tremendous success in the GLP-1 space, all thanks to its semaglutide drugs sold under the brand names Ozempic (for T2D) and Wegovy (for obesity). As of March 2025-end, Novo continues to be the global market leader in the GLP-1 segment, with around 54% value market share.
Sales of Wegovy continue to rise due to strong prescription growth, driving higher revenues and profits. Additionally, Ozempic sales are also contributing positively to overall revenues. NVO has been investing heavily to expand its manufacturing capacity as part of its strategic move to entrench its diabetes and obesity care market leadership for its GLP-1 products.
Novo Nordisk is pursuing new indications for semaglutide, including label expansions for Wegovy in additional cardiovascular conditions and for Ozempic in T2D patients with chronic kidney disease. It is also investigating semaglutide’s potential in metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis (MASH). These efforts could expand the eligible patient population for semaglutide and boost sales.
However, the company’s arch-rival Eli Lilly remains a formidable adversary in the obesity market, which threatens its market share. Lilly markets its tirzepatide injections under the brand names Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity.
The NVO stock has also been under pressure due to disappointing data from two late-stage studies for its next-generation subcutaneous obesity candidate, CagriSema, a follow-up drug to Wegovy. In these studies, CagriSema demonstrated a lower-than-expected reduction in body weight. Novo Nordisk is also currently facing a major transition in its executive management, as CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen will step down due to market headwinds and a decline in the company’s stock since mid-2024. The search for his successor is currently underway.
Though the rare disease segment currently accounts for a minimal portion of revenues, Novo is making good efforts to expand this portfolio. A regulatory filing with the FDA, seeking approval for Mim8 in patients aged 12 years and older with hemophilia A, is planned for submission later this year.
How Do Estimates Compare for AMGN & NVO?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amgen’s 2025 sales implies a year-over-year increase of 5%, and that for EPS also suggests an improvement of 5%. EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have moved north in the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of around 20% and 21%, respectively. While EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending upward over the past 60 days, the same for 2026 have moved south.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance and Valuation of AMGN & NVO
Year to date, shares of Amgen have gained 17%, while those of Novo have plummeted 22%. In comparison, the industry has declined 3%, as seen in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Novo Nordisk seems to be slightly more expensive than Amgen, going by the price/book (P/E) ratio. NVO’s shares currently trade at 15.51 times forward earnings, higher than 14.5 for AMGN.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of dividend yield, Amgen stands higher at 3.1% compared to Novo’s 2.5%.
However, when comparing the two, Amgen appears to be the better pick. Despite short-term headwinds like Prolia and Xgeva going off patent later this year, the company’s diversified portfolio and deep pipeline offer a balanced growth story. AMGN stock also looks more attractive than NVO from a valuation standpoint.
While Novo Nordisk continues to lead in the GLP-1 space with strong revenue growth, it faces several near-term challenges. These include limited diversification, underwhelming CagriSema results and a leadership transition — all of which may weigh on investor sentiment.
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Amgen vs. Novo Nordisk: Which Pharma Giant Is the Better Buy?
Key Takeaways
Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) are among the largest companies in the pharmaceutical space.
Amgen boasts one of the largest portfolios in the sector, with a strong presence in oncology, cardiovascular disease, inflammation, bone health and rare disease markets.
On the other hand, Novo Nordisk enjoys a leading position in the diabetes and obesity market, while steadily expanding its presence into rare diseases.
Both these giants have established strong footholds in their respective target markets, delivering consistent returns to shareholders. In such a scenario, choosing one stock over another can be challenging. Let's examine the fundamentals of the two stocks to make a prudent choice.
The Case for AMGN
Amgen’s diverse portfolio and global reach position it well in a changing pharma landscape. Growth products like Repatha, Prolia, Xgeva, Evenity, Vectibix, Nplate, Kyprolis and Blincyto are performing well, having gained approvals for label expansions. The robust sales of these drugs have helped Amgen offset the declining sales of its legacy drugs such as Enbrel.
The 2023 acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics has significantly expanded Amgen's rare disease business by adding several rare disease drugs, including Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna, to its portfolio.
Amgen is one of the handful of companies that is evaluating an obesity drug in late-stage development. In March, the company started two phase III studies evaluating its investigational GIPR/GLP-1 receptor MariTide for 72 weeks in people with obesity, with or without type II diabetes (T2D). Additional late-stage studies on the drug in specific obesity-related conditions are expected to start throughout 2025.
Unlike the currently marketed obesity drugs like Novo’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s (LLY - Free Report) Zepbound that require weekly injections, MariTide is being tested for monthly dosing. The late-stage development of the drug was supported by data from phase II studies, wherein treatment with MariTide resulted in up to approximately 20% average weight loss over 52 weeks, without reaching a weight loss plateau in people who were obese or overweight but without T2D. However, the weight loss reduction was at the lower end of investor expectations of 20-25%. In T2D patients who were obese or overweight, the weight loss reduction was approximately 17% at 52 weeks.
Beyond obesity, Amgen has promising late-stage pipeline drugs across several therapeutic areas, which represent significant commercial potential. These include bemarituzumab (for first-line gastric cancer), rocatinlimab (for eczema and prurigo nodularis) and olpasiran (for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease).
Amgen has also strengthened its biosimilar portfolio, with the recent launches of biosimilar versions of popular drugs like J&J’s Stelara (marketed as ‘Wezlana’) and Regeneron’s Eylea (‘Pavblu’). It is also developing biosimilar versions of blockbuster oncology drugs like Bristol Myers’ Opdivo and Merck’s Keytruda in ongoing phase III studies.
However, increased pricing headwinds and competitive pressure are negatively impacting the sales of many products. Sales of best-selling drugs, Prolia and Xgeva, are expected to decline in 2025, mainly from the second half, due to patent erosion.
The Case for NVO
Novo Nordisk has achieved tremendous success in the GLP-1 space, all thanks to its semaglutide drugs sold under the brand names Ozempic (for T2D) and Wegovy (for obesity). As of March 2025-end, Novo continues to be the global market leader in the GLP-1 segment, with around 54% value market share.
Sales of Wegovy continue to rise due to strong prescription growth, driving higher revenues and profits. Additionally, Ozempic sales are also contributing positively to overall revenues. NVO has been investing heavily to expand its manufacturing capacity as part of its strategic move to entrench its diabetes and obesity care market leadership for its GLP-1 products.
Novo Nordisk is pursuing new indications for semaglutide, including label expansions for Wegovy in additional cardiovascular conditions and for Ozempic in T2D patients with chronic kidney disease. It is also investigating semaglutide’s potential in metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis (MASH). These efforts could expand the eligible patient population for semaglutide and boost sales.
However, the company’s arch-rival Eli Lilly remains a formidable adversary in the obesity market, which threatens its market share. Lilly markets its tirzepatide injections under the brand names Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity.
The NVO stock has also been under pressure due to disappointing data from two late-stage studies for its next-generation subcutaneous obesity candidate, CagriSema, a follow-up drug to Wegovy. In these studies, CagriSema demonstrated a lower-than-expected reduction in body weight. Novo Nordisk is also currently facing a major transition in its executive management, as CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen will step down due to market headwinds and a decline in the company’s stock since mid-2024. The search for his successor is currently underway.
Though the rare disease segment currently accounts for a minimal portion of revenues, Novo is making good efforts to expand this portfolio. A regulatory filing with the FDA, seeking approval for Mim8 in patients aged 12 years and older with hemophilia A, is planned for submission later this year.
How Do Estimates Compare for AMGN & NVO?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amgen’s 2025 sales implies a year-over-year increase of 5%, and that for EPS also suggests an improvement of 5%. EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have moved north in the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of around 20% and 21%, respectively. While EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending upward over the past 60 days, the same for 2026 have moved south.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance and Valuation of AMGN & NVO
Year to date, shares of Amgen have gained 17%, while those of Novo have plummeted 22%. In comparison, the industry has declined 3%, as seen in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Novo Nordisk seems to be slightly more expensive than Amgen, going by the price/book (P/E) ratio. NVO’s shares currently trade at 15.51 times forward earnings, higher than 14.5 for AMGN.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of dividend yield, Amgen stands higher at 3.1% compared to Novo’s 2.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AMGN or NVO: Which Is a Better Pick?
Both Amgen and Novo carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each, which makes choosing one stock over the other difficult. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
However, when comparing the two, Amgen appears to be the better pick. Despite short-term headwinds like Prolia and Xgeva going off patent later this year, the company’s diversified portfolio and deep pipeline offer a balanced growth story. AMGN stock also looks more attractive than NVO from a valuation standpoint.
While Novo Nordisk continues to lead in the GLP-1 space with strong revenue growth, it faces several near-term challenges. These include limited diversification, underwhelming CagriSema results and a leadership transition — all of which may weigh on investor sentiment.