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In the last reported quarter that ended March 31, 2025, Comfort Systems reported delivered an exceptional start to the year, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $4.75, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 29.8% and marking more than 75% year-over-year growth. Revenue reached $1.83 billion (beating the consensus mark by 7.5%), up 19.2% year over year, with strong contributions from both the Mechanical (up 18%) and Electrical (up 22%) segments. This performance is especially noteworthy as the first quarter is typically the company’s seasonally weakest period, yet FIX achieved all-time record earnings and margins. Same-store revenue growth of 15% and gross margins expanding to 22% (from 19.3% in the year-ago period) highlight robust execution.
Markedly, Comfort Systems reported better-than-expected earnings in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.6%.
How Are Estimates Placed for Comfort Systems Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s EPS has remained unchanged at $4.68 over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates growth of 25.1% from the year-ago EPS of $3.74.
The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.95 billion, indicating 7.9% year-over-year growth.
For 2025, FIX is expected to register a 2.1% EPS growth on a 9.9% revenue increase from a year ago.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Likely to Influence Comfort Systems’ Q2 Results
Comfort Systems heads into the second quarter of 2025 with strong momentum and a record backlog, but expectations are slightly tempered by seasonality, tougher year-over-year comparisons, and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Historically, FIX sees its backlog peak in the fourth and first quarters and decline in the second and third quarters as warmer weather accelerates project execution and revenue recognition. This seasonal drawdown is expected again in the second quarter. However, the record $6.9 billion backlog at the end of the first quarter (up 16% year over year and 14% sequentially) provides significant revenue visibility not only for the second quarter but also for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.
Management did not provide explicit second-quarter revenue or EPS guidance, but reiterated its full-year 2025 expectation for high-single-digit same-store revenue growth. This suggests second-quarter revenue will likely rise at a more moderate pace compared to first-quarter 2025’s 19% jump, reflecting difficult comparisons to the exceptionally strong second-quarter 2024. CFO Bill George acknowledged that “we face high comparables for the remainder of 2025, especially in the third and fourth quarters,” implying second-quarter 2025 could mark the beginning of sequential normalization.
Still, the company remains confident in maintaining its elevated gross margins, which reached 22% in the first quarter—a record high. Superior project execution and favorable pricing, particularly in high-value advanced technology and institutional jobs, are expected to have boosted the company’s second-quarter gross margin. Management expects gross profit percentages to remain in the strong ranges seen in recent quarters, reflecting ongoing discipline in project selection and operational excellence.
Segment-wise, for the Mechanical segment—FIX’s larger revenue contributor — management expects this segment to maintain elevated margins, supported by high-quality backlog and continued demand from industrial and institutional markets. Technology-related industrial work—such as chip fabs and data centers—has been a major growth driver. These projects fall largely under the Mechanical umbrella and are long in duration, providing strong revenue visibility through the second quarter and beyond.
Additionally, Mechanical projects have benefited from modular construction techniques, which now account for about 19% of total company revenues. With 2.5 million square feet of modular production and storage capacity, FIX is increasingly integrating off-site solutions into Mechanical workflows—helping enhance efficiency and reduce seasonality.
While tariffs could increase input costs, FIX’s Mechanical teams are said to be highly experienced in managing supply chain uncertainty and mitigating margin risk through proactive procurement and customer collaboration. Therefore, Mechanical revenue is expected to remain solid in the second quarter, with margins continuing to trend near the first quarter high.
For Electrical segment, management acknowledged continued strength in this segment, particularly as backlog for electrical-intensive projects remains at record levels. The company noted no signs of slowdown in customer demand for electricians, and ongoing project visibility is high. Although electrical contracting may be somewhat more exposed to material cost inflation (like copper, panels, and wiring), FIX’s scale and contractual structure offer important safeguards.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for FIX Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Comfort Systems this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: FIX has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Comfort Systems Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation
Comfort Systems shares have surged 41.4% in the past three months alone, surpassing the broader Zacks Building Products - Air Conditioner and Heating industry’s 21.2% gain and leaving broader Construction sector and S&P 500 benchmarks far behind.
In the past three-month period, this national leader in mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) services has also outperformed key competitors such as AAON, Inc. (AAON - Free Report) , Watsco, Inc. (WSO - Free Report) and EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME - Free Report) . AAON declined 8.5%, while EMCOR and Watsco gained 42% and 8.9%. Compared to AAON, Watsco, and EMCOR, the stock’s performance stands out—especially as AAON, and only EMCOR and WSO posted a notable gain.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let's assess the value FIX offers to investors at its current levels. FIX stock is trading at a discount compared to the industry average, as shown in the chart below. The stock is trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 26.73, lower than the industry average of 29.43 but well above its five-year median of 20.93.
FIX’s P/E Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Why Should You Hold FIX Stock Now?
Despite a breathtaking 41% rally over the past three months, Comfort Systems still merits a hold rating heading into its second-quarter 2025 earnings report. While management anticipates a sequential normalization in growth due to tough year-over-year comparisons, a record $6.9 billion backlog offers strong visibility into the remainder of 2025. Both Mechanical and Electrical segments are supported by resilient demand, particularly from industrial, institutional, and high-tech sectors. Modular construction is boosting efficiency and helping reduce seasonality, while FIX’s experience in supply chain management mitigates tariff-related risks. Despite its recent 41% rally, FIX trades below the industry average with a forward 12-month P/E of 26.7X, making it reasonably valued given its quality and momentum. Although not poised for an immediate earnings beat, the company’s strong fundamentals and disciplined execution support a hold rating as investors await second-quarter results.
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Comfort Systems to Report Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX - Free Report) is slated to report results for the second quarter of 2025 on July 24, after the closing bell.
Q1 Recap: A Strong Start to 2025
In the last reported quarter that ended March 31, 2025, Comfort Systems reported delivered an exceptional start to the year, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $4.75, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 29.8% and marking more than 75% year-over-year growth. Revenue reached $1.83 billion (beating the consensus mark by 7.5%), up 19.2% year over year, with strong contributions from both the Mechanical (up 18%) and Electrical (up 22%) segments. This performance is especially noteworthy as the first quarter is typically the company’s seasonally weakest period, yet FIX achieved all-time record earnings and margins. Same-store revenue growth of 15% and gross margins expanding to 22% (from 19.3% in the year-ago period) highlight robust execution.
Markedly, Comfort Systems reported better-than-expected earnings in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.6%.
How Are Estimates Placed for Comfort Systems Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s EPS has remained unchanged at $4.68 over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates growth of 25.1% from the year-ago EPS of $3.74.
The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.95 billion, indicating 7.9% year-over-year growth.
For 2025, FIX is expected to register a 2.1% EPS growth on a 9.9% revenue increase from a year ago.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Likely to Influence Comfort Systems’ Q2 Results
Comfort Systems heads into the second quarter of 2025 with strong momentum and a record backlog, but expectations are slightly tempered by seasonality, tougher year-over-year comparisons, and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Historically, FIX sees its backlog peak in the fourth and first quarters and decline in the second and third quarters as warmer weather accelerates project execution and revenue recognition. This seasonal drawdown is expected again in the second quarter. However, the record $6.9 billion backlog at the end of the first quarter (up 16% year over year and 14% sequentially) provides significant revenue visibility not only for the second quarter but also for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.
Management did not provide explicit second-quarter revenue or EPS guidance, but reiterated its full-year 2025 expectation for high-single-digit same-store revenue growth. This suggests second-quarter revenue will likely rise at a more moderate pace compared to first-quarter 2025’s 19% jump, reflecting difficult comparisons to the exceptionally strong second-quarter 2024. CFO Bill George acknowledged that “we face high comparables for the remainder of 2025, especially in the third and fourth quarters,” implying second-quarter 2025 could mark the beginning of sequential normalization.
Still, the company remains confident in maintaining its elevated gross margins, which reached 22% in the first quarter—a record high. Superior project execution and favorable pricing, particularly in high-value advanced technology and institutional jobs, are expected to have boosted the company’s second-quarter gross margin. Management expects gross profit percentages to remain in the strong ranges seen in recent quarters, reflecting ongoing discipline in project selection and operational excellence.
Segment-wise, for the Mechanical segment—FIX’s larger revenue contributor — management expects this segment to maintain elevated margins, supported by high-quality backlog and continued demand from industrial and institutional markets. Technology-related industrial work—such as chip fabs and data centers—has been a major growth driver. These projects fall largely under the Mechanical umbrella and are long in duration, providing strong revenue visibility through the second quarter and beyond.
Additionally, Mechanical projects have benefited from modular construction techniques, which now account for about 19% of total company revenues. With 2.5 million square feet of modular production and storage capacity, FIX is increasingly integrating off-site solutions into Mechanical workflows—helping enhance efficiency and reduce seasonality.
While tariffs could increase input costs, FIX’s Mechanical teams are said to be highly experienced in managing supply chain uncertainty and mitigating margin risk through proactive procurement and customer collaboration. Therefore, Mechanical revenue is expected to remain solid in the second quarter, with margins continuing to trend near the first quarter high.
For Electrical segment, management acknowledged continued strength in this segment, particularly as backlog for electrical-intensive projects remains at record levels. The company noted no signs of slowdown in customer demand for electricians, and ongoing project visibility is high. Although electrical contracting may be somewhat more exposed to material cost inflation (like copper, panels, and wiring), FIX’s scale and contractual structure offer important safeguards.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for FIX Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Comfort Systems this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: FIX has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Comfort Systems Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation
Comfort Systems shares have surged 41.4% in the past three months alone, surpassing the broader Zacks Building Products - Air Conditioner and Heating industry’s 21.2% gain and leaving broader Construction sector and S&P 500 benchmarks far behind.
In the past three-month period, this national leader in mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) services has also outperformed key competitors such as AAON, Inc. (AAON - Free Report) , Watsco, Inc. (WSO - Free Report) and EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME - Free Report) . AAON declined 8.5%, while EMCOR and Watsco gained 42% and 8.9%. Compared to AAON, Watsco, and EMCOR, the stock’s performance stands out—especially as AAON, and only EMCOR and WSO posted a notable gain.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let's assess the value FIX offers to investors at its current levels. FIX stock is trading at a discount compared to the industry average, as shown in the chart below. The stock is trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 26.73, lower than the industry average of 29.43 but well above its five-year median of 20.93.
FIX’s P/E Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Why Should You Hold FIX Stock Now?
Despite a breathtaking 41% rally over the past three months, Comfort Systems still merits a hold rating heading into its second-quarter 2025 earnings report. While management anticipates a sequential normalization in growth due to tough year-over-year comparisons, a record $6.9 billion backlog offers strong visibility into the remainder of 2025. Both Mechanical and Electrical segments are supported by resilient demand, particularly from industrial, institutional, and high-tech sectors. Modular construction is boosting efficiency and helping reduce seasonality, while FIX’s experience in supply chain management mitigates tariff-related risks. Despite its recent 41% rally, FIX trades below the industry average with a forward 12-month P/E of 26.7X, making it reasonably valued given its quality and momentum. Although not poised for an immediate earnings beat, the company’s strong fundamentals and disciplined execution support a hold rating as investors await second-quarter results.