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Will Escalating Medical Costs Dampen Centene's Q2 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
CNC's Q2 earnings estimate of 68 cents per share reflects a 71.9% drop from the prior-year quarter.
Premium revenues are projected to rise 14% amid growth in the Commercial Marketplace business.
We expect medical costs to surge 17.8% year over year, squeezing CNC's overall margins.
Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) is scheduled to release second-quarter 2025 results on July 25, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 68 cents per share, which indicates a 71.9% plunge from the prior-year quarter’s number.
The second-quarter earnings estimate has witnessed no upward revisions against two downward movements over the past seven days. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $43.9 billion, implying 10.3% growth from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CNC’s Earnings Surprise History
Centene’s bottom line beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 25.47%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Centene this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here, as you see below.
Earnings ESP: Centene has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: CNC currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
In the second quarter, revenues of Centene are likely to have benefited on the back of growing premiums resulting from an increased customer base across its Commercial Marketplace business. The business is likely to have received an impetus from new enrolments and strong retention rates. However, the upside is expected to have been partly offset by declining membership in CNC’s Medicaid and Medicare businesses.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums of Centene is pegged at $39.9 billion, which indicates an improvement of 13.6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. We anticipate premiums at $40.1 billion, up 14% year over year. The consensus mark for membership in the Commercial Marketplace business indicates year-over-year growth of 22.7%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Medicaid and Medicare membership implies year-over-year declines of 1.9% and 9.8%, respectively. Our estimate for overall membership stands at 27.8 million as of June 30, 2025, down 2.5% year over year.
Additionally, lower service revenues are expected to be a partial offset to Centene’s results in the to-be-reported quarter. The consensus mark for service revenues is $774 million, which indicates a 7.1% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. We also expect the same at $774 million.
The health benefits ratio (HBR) of CNC is likely to have witnessed an uptick due to an expanding Marketplace business and increased utilization of specialty drugs in non-low-income PDP members. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for consolidated HBR is 91%, which indicates a deterioration of 300 basis points year over year. Our estimate for HBR is 90.4%.
Centene’s margins are likely to have suffered a setback due to an elevated medical cost level. We expect medical costs to be $36.2 billion for the second quarter, implying an escalation of 17.8% year over year.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies from the Medical space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Genmab A/S (GMAB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.03% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GMAB’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, which implies a 77.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Genmab’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark twice, the average surprise being 14.90%.
Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +20.93% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for STVN’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 11 cents per share, which implies a 10% rise from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Stevanato Group’s earnings beat estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and matched the mark thrice, the average surprise being 2.50%.
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.39% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BMRN’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.03 per share, which implies a 7.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
BioMarin Pharmaceutical’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 32.83%.
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Will Escalating Medical Costs Dampen Centene's Q2 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) is scheduled to release second-quarter 2025 results on July 25, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 68 cents per share, which indicates a 71.9% plunge from the prior-year quarter’s number.
The second-quarter earnings estimate has witnessed no upward revisions against two downward movements over the past seven days. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $43.9 billion, implying 10.3% growth from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CNC’s Earnings Surprise History
Centene’s bottom line beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 25.47%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Centene Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Centene Corporation price-eps-surprise | Centene Corporation Quote
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for AON
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Centene this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here, as you see below.
Earnings ESP: Centene has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: CNC currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Shape Centene’s Q2 Results
In the second quarter, revenues of Centene are likely to have benefited on the back of growing premiums resulting from an increased customer base across its Commercial Marketplace business. The business is likely to have received an impetus from new enrolments and strong retention rates. However, the upside is expected to have been partly offset by declining membership in CNC’s Medicaid and Medicare businesses.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums of Centene is pegged at $39.9 billion, which indicates an improvement of 13.6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. We anticipate premiums at $40.1 billion, up 14% year over year. The consensus mark for membership in the Commercial Marketplace business indicates year-over-year growth of 22.7%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Medicaid and Medicare membership implies year-over-year declines of 1.9% and 9.8%, respectively. Our estimate for overall membership stands at 27.8 million as of June 30, 2025, down 2.5% year over year.
Additionally, lower service revenues are expected to be a partial offset to Centene’s results in the to-be-reported quarter. The consensus mark for service revenues is $774 million, which indicates a 7.1% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. We also expect the same at $774 million.
The health benefits ratio (HBR) of CNC is likely to have witnessed an uptick due to an expanding Marketplace business and increased utilization of specialty drugs in non-low-income PDP members. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for consolidated HBR is 91%, which indicates a deterioration of 300 basis points year over year. Our estimate for HBR is 90.4%.
Centene’s margins are likely to have suffered a setback due to an elevated medical cost level. We expect medical costs to be $36.2 billion for the second quarter, implying an escalation of 17.8% year over year.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies from the Medical space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Genmab A/S (GMAB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.03% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GMAB’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, which implies a 77.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Genmab’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark twice, the average surprise being 14.90%.
Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +20.93% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for STVN’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 11 cents per share, which implies a 10% rise from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Stevanato Group’s earnings beat estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and matched the mark thrice, the average surprise being 2.50%.
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.39% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BMRN’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.03 per share, which implies a 7.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
BioMarin Pharmaceutical’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 32.83%.