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Magnolia Oil to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • MGY's Q2 earnings are pegged at 40 cents per share, down 28.6% from the prior-year quarter.
  • Production is projected to rise 7.3% year over year to 8.8 million barrels of oil equivalent.
  • General and Administrative costs are expected to fall 20.2%, supporting the company's bottom line.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 30. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 40 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $310.2 million.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced MGY’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of MGY’s Q1 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the Houston, TX-based oil and gas exploration and production company reported a net profit of 55 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2 cents. This was primarily due to a healthy increase in production volumes driven by strong well productivity in the company’s Giddings asset. The company’s total revenues were $350.3 million, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $7 million. MGY’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 7.1%. This is depicted in the graph below:         

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Price and EPS Surprise

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Price and EPS Surprise

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp price-eps-surprise | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Quote

Trend in MGY’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings has witnessed an upward movement of 2.6% in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 28.6% year-over-year bottom-line decrease. Additionally, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a decline of 7.9% from the year-ago period’s level.

Factors to Consider Ahead of MGY’s Q2 Release

Magnolia generates revenues by acquiring land or leases with oil and natural gas reserves, primarily in South Texas. The firm explores these properties, drills wells to extract the oil and gas, and sells the resources to other energy companies. By focusing on areas such as the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk, MGY profits from the difference between the costs of drilling and production and the income from selling the extracted oil and gas.

With respect to production volumes, our model expects its total production to reach 8.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) in the second quarter, a 7.3% increase from the year-ago quarter’s level of 8.2 MMboe. Production volumes of oil are anticipated to increase 11.4% year over year, totaling 3.9 thousand barrels (MBbls). Additionally, natural gas liquids (“NGL”) are forecasted to increase 8.7% year over year, totaling 2.5 MBbls.

Taking a look at the revenue side, our model projects the metric from NGL to increase 8.4% year over year, totaling $46.4 million. Revenues from natural gas are likely to be more than doubled, totaling $42.5 million compared with the year-ago level of $18.6 million.

On the cost side, we expect the company’s general and administrative expenses to reach $18.2 million in the second quarter, which is 20.2% down from the year-ago quarter’s level of $22.8 million. This might have created a positive trajectory for the company’s bottom line to a certain extent.

What Does Our Model Predict for MGY?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Magnolia this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

Earnings ESP of MGY: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +0.50%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

MGY’s Zacks Rank: MGY currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Crescent Energy Company (CRGY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +43.18% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Crescent Energy is scheduled to release earnings on Aug. 04. Notably, CRGY’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 48.3%. Valued at around $2.2 billion, Crescent Energy’s shares have lost 26.3% in a year.

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.44% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to release earnings on Aug. 04.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Diamondback Energy’s 2025 revenues indicate 27.2% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $41.4 billion, Diamondback Energy’s shares have lost 27.7% in a year.

ONEOK, Inc. (OKE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.50% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to release earnings on Aug. 04.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ONEOK’s2025 earnings per share indicates 7.7% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $50.8 billion, ONEOK’s shares have lost 0.6% in a year.

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